The feature at Rosehill this afternoon is the Listed Winter Stakes and recently appointed Godolphin trainer John O’Shea looks to have a strong chance in Generalife.
A lightly raced son of former champion Lonhro, Generalife burst into calculations for this afternoon’s event with an emphatic victory in the Listed Civic Stakes over 1350m at Rosehill a fortnight ago running to a peak Timeform rating this preparation of 107 with the effort looking better than the bare form.
The win was Generalife’s seventh from 20 career starts and easily his most impressive although he can run to 109, a figure he posted when close up behind Snitzerland and Lankan Rupee as a three-year-old.
Generalife will be aiming for a hat trick this afternoon having previously won a strong benchmark 85 handicap over 1350m at Rosehill that has subsequently produced five winners.
In a race where there looks to be a moderate early tempo, I can see Generalife sitting just off the speed until produced by race rider Kerrin McEvoy at the right time in the straight.
Although McEvoy was absent from the saddle last start, he was aboard at his previous two wins, one of which was over this afternoon’s distance of 1400m on the Randwick Kensington course.
Despite rising in the weights, Generalife looks to have enough improvement in hand to prevail in what is a very competitive Winter Stakes.
The main danger is Scream Machine who is also shooting for a hat trick of wins after near last to first victories at his last two runs both at Rosehill.
Two back Scream Machine overcame a chequered run in the home straight when blocked for clear running to win with plenty in hand over 1400m then last time out was unsuited by a slow early tempo over 1500m yet produced a sharp turn of foot to gather in the leaders close to home for another impressive win.
Those efforts have seen him rise in the weights to 58.5 kgs this afternoon and his Timeform rating to 112, just two pounds shy of his master rating earned when sixth behind Spirit Of Boom in the G1 Doomben 10000 three starts back.
Back to 1400m this afternoon is of some concern but he has an exceptional record at Rosehill of five wins and four placings from ten starts.
I expect him to run to his master Timeform figure today and with the inform Tye Angland in the saddle will be well suited and take plenty of holding out.
While Generalife and Scream Machine dominate the race on figures, the value hope could be the Chris Waller-prepared Coup At Tee who has been racing into fitness after three runs back from a spell.
While seeming to be down on form, Coup Ay Tee appears well weighted on direct comparisons with some of his rivals and enjoys significant weight turnarounds on the more favoured runners in the race such as Scream Machine.
Coup Ay Tee has raced behind both Scream Machine and Generalife at his last two runs and while beaten was not disgraced hitting the line hard until his condition gave out.
A much fitter Coup Ay Tee is a serious threat. If the field is assessed at their best Timeform master rating, Coup Ay Tee is right up there and it is worth remembering he was placed in this race last year.
Last year’s Winter Stakes winner Under The Sun is certain to have admirers but he will need to find on his fresh up effort in the Listed Ramornie handicap at Grafton where he finished 11th after fading from second place on the home turn.
There is no doubt Under The Sun will be much fitter this afternoon and could easily take up the running unopposed making him hard to get past, a tactic he employed when successful last year.
Enjoy the contest.
