This afternoon’s Final of the Winter Championship over 1600m at Flemington has assembled a capacity line up of off season contenders headed by the lightly raced Akavoroun.
With all the Championship heats now done and dusted, the form is well disclosed from a number of stand points.
However the most likely outcome according to Timeform ratings is a repeat of the heat held at Flemington 14 days ago that saw Akavoroun run down kiwi galloper Ringo in the concluding stages of the 1410m event.
Akavoroun ran to a new master Timeform rating of 104p with clearly more to come, which when adjusted for the handicap weight this afternoon makes him the horse to beat.
A most promising off-season type, this afternoon Akavoroun looks set to announce he could be a contender for stronger races in the spring.
The winner of five of his only six race starts, Akavoroun won his first two race starts as a three-year-old before being put away to mature. After a 339 day break, Akavoroun began his current campaign quickly winning at Warrnambool and Bendigo in restricted class before suffering his first defeat at the hands of Fast And Free (opposed to him again this afternoon) over 1500m at Moonee Valley.
However the up and comer had no luck that day forced to race wide throughout whereas the winner gained an inside run saving several lengths.
Akavoroun then quickly turned that form around next time out winning a heat of the championship from the New Zealander Ringo.
Ridden by Michelle Payne who remains atop the gelding today, Akavoroun settled well back in the field early, saving ground railing up along the fence as the field moved off the rails rounding the home turn.
Akavoroun quickly took the lead early in the straight facing a stiff head wind but stayed on strongly to hold out his rivals.
While he has to step up to 1600m for the first time this afternoon, I do not see that as a major issue, especially if Payne can smother him up early and produce him late for the last challenge.
The obvious dangers are Ringo, Fast And Free, Tried And Tired and The Cleaner.
Kiwi galloper Ringo is another progressive type who looks set to make improvement on his Australian debut when runner-up to Akavoroun over 1410m at Flemington.
That was Ringo’s second run this campaign and his first run for 28 days since winning fresh up in New Zealand at Wanganui over 1340m.
Before going for a spell, Ringo was tested in stakes company in New Zealand but was not disgraced in the G2 Bakeries Mile (1600m) or G3 Challenge Stakes (1400m) ending that campaign with a Timeform rating of 101.
Ringo reaffirmed that level of performance at Flemington running to 102 and looks to have capacity for better still.
The In-form Dwayne Dunn should have Ringo well placed throughout from his low draw and no doubt will look the winner at some stage in the closing stages.
The Mick Price-trained Fast And Free winner of two of his last three runs looks set to race well again.
Timeform rated 102, Fast And Free is a winner at his only Flemington run over 1630m and three starts back defeated Akavoroun over 1500m at Moonee Valley before failing at the same course 14 days later over 1600m.
However there were excuses for that defeat as he showed by easily winning a heat of the championship over 1600m at Cranbourne last time out.
Admittedly that was on heavy ground but Fast And Free is equally adept on top of the ground and he is sure to be a major threat this afternoon.
Tried And Tired like top weight The Cleaner also brings last start winning form to the race.
The Leon Corstens-prepared Tried And Tired has won three of his six starts this campaign – all over 1400m but is yet to race beyond that distance.
While that is a small query over his chances, he seems to travel strongly in his races just off the pace and that is a running style is suited to Flemington.
Tasmanian galloper The Cleaner has found a new lease of life at six years of age especially over shorter distances than he normally runs over.
Generally regarded as a 2000m plus galloper, he resumed over 1400m at Flemington just going down to Limes after a struggle all the way up the straight. Then last start he demolished the opposition in the Harrison Cup over 1600m at Moonee Valley running to a Timeform rating of 109, a pound under his master figure achieved at 2400m in the 2013 G3 Hobart Cup.
While The Cleaner has paid the price for this excellent current form handicapped on 60kgs, he cannot be easily dismissed as a genuine winning chance, despite the fact history shows this race is hard to win with big weights.
In fact The Cleaner was 11th of 12 in last year’s Championship final under 60kgs but this afternoon he does come into the race in better form.
That said the highest winning weight carried to win the Championship final in the last 20 years has been 59kgs carried in 2012 by Glaneuse who completed a rare back to back double in the winter feature.
Enjoy the race.
