Popular trainer Guy Walter’s patience with Jacquinot Bay should pay dividends this afternoon when the gelding takes place in the Schweppes Benchmark 95 Handicap at Rosehill.
The lightly raced son of Galileo has always shown an abundance of talent but the now six year old has not always had trouble free preparations. After winning his first four race track appearances, his form tapered off a little as he progressed through higher grades but he does look ideally placed today.
The key to his improved winning prospects being a significant class drop combined with an increase to a more suitable race distance of 1400m, giving him a slight edge on Timeform weight adjusted ratings.
Jacquinot Bay resumed from a spell of more than seven months at the end of November with an eye-catching fifth behind the speedy Zaratone in the Listed Starlight Stakes over the unsuitable trip of 1100m, not surprising rating 13 pounds below his master Timeform figure.
Last start he stepped up marginally in trip to 1150m of the Listed Razor Sharp Quality on the Randwick Kensington and once again found the distance well short of his best but again running home from last at the 800m to be beaten three lengths, but improving his previous start rating by six pounds.
Stepping up to 1400m today will be a major advantage and all the signs are positive for Jacquinot Bay to return to something like his peak rating.
There looks to be good speed in the race so an off pace runner like Jacquinot Bay should be able to slot in around mid field and finish the race off hard. I am not expecting him to get as far back here as he has done in his first two runs back from a spell.
A winner of six of his only 12 race starts, the form book for Jacquinot Bay is littered with excellent runs in races where the collateral form has been very strong by comparison to the opposition he meets here, with the one possible exception Gangster’s Choice.
Peter Robl has the ride on Jacquinot Bay and while he has only been atop the gelding once previously behind Zaratone, Robl and Walter do have a good strike rate together.
The hardest to beat is definitely Gangster’s Choice from the John O’Shea stable who be second up from a spell this afternoon.
Interestingly Peter Robl who rides Jacquinot Bay rode Gangster’s Choice when he resumed for a handy third behind Limes in this exact class of race and distance at Rosehill a fortnight back.
That effort was full of merit leading some analysts to claim he could have been a shade unlucky running on solidly from midfield on the home turn after striking some “traffic” early in the straight, beaten a length and a half.
Either way his ratings profile suggests he has capacity to improve; his Timeform rating from that effort being seven pounds below his best previous level.
Like Jacquinot Bay, Gangster’s Choice is yet to win at Rosehill but I don’t see that as an issue for either galloper.
James McDonald fresh from his Auckland Cup win in New Zealand on New Year’s Day will again be atop the six year old – the pair chasing their first win together from four previous match ups.
Jacquinot Bay and Gangster’s Choice have met once previously in September 2012 and it was a tight finish over 1600m at Randwick with the first mentioned prevailing by a head but in receipt on 3.5 kilos.
On straight form lines that could be an issue but ratings reveal Jacquinot Bay has improved almost that amount since that meeting whereas Gangster’s Choice is currently rating around the same mark.
Babel who was runner-up to Limes (Gangster’s Choice third) last start and Disciple look the main dangers to the aforementioned pair.
Babel from the powerful Snowden yard has been a model of consistency being placed at each of her last three starts all over the 1400m distance of today’s race.
She is due for a change in luck but when she drew one from the outside barrier, punters enthusiasm was dampened.
That said she has bumped into some smart types in her recent races, most notably Limes, Messene and Terravista and if she gets luck from the wide barrier she can be expected to race well again.
Despite not winning for 378 days, Babel stays under notice. She will also have a new rider today in Josh Parr who has been placed twice from as many rides atop the mare.
If there is an upset horse it could well be the Chris Waller-trained Disciple who has raced four times since a spell without re capturing his potent winning form from last preparation.
After a solid fresh up effort at Rosehill, Waller ventured south with Disciple for the Melbourne Spring races but he was found wanting with unplaced efforts behind Longport and Loot N Run both times over 1400m.
Waller then took Disciple back to Sydney and he also comes out of the Limes race where he raced well but without his usual dash for a grinding fourth.
A riding switch to Brenton Avdulla could spark Disciple into action and he is a definite must include for the multiples.
Waller also has the former imported galloper Eigelstein, Tromso and stayer Sacred Flyer engaged, the best of that trio being Tromso.
Tromso has been racing more consistently since being ridden more forward, a move that started three runs back when just beaten by Secessio over 1500m in open class at Rosehill.
Then followed a win in the Ladies Day Cup over 1400m at Hawkesbury defeating subsequent Villiers Handicap winner Ninth Legion after leading practically throughout.
On that occasion he had a slow mid race tempo but was soon in front and fought on tenaciously to prevail in a deceptive finish.
Given a 30 day break after that run, Tromso last raced in the event easily won by Messene at Randwick on the Kensington and on face value looked a little disappointing dropping out to finish a distant fourth beaten over seven lengths after leading for home.
However there are good reasons to suggest he can improve on that form today.
Tromso had to be used up early from a wide barrier under a big weight to cross the field and lead at a very fast early tempo, so it was no surprise to see him cave in late, especially as there was a query over his fitness as well.
This afternoon he is likely to be at value odds and can make it into the frame if things fall his way.
Enjoy a competitive race.
