There is little doubt that star-filly Guelph is the most likely winner of today’s Thousand Guineas at Caulfield with punters left to decide at what price she is a bet and at what price is she a lay.
Guelph comes into the Guineas rated 120p, a figure bettered in the Thousand Guineas only by Atlantic Jewel and Inaflury in recent times.
There are only a handful of fillies to come into the Thousand Guineas rated that high in recent times, Miss Finland, Mnemosyne and Alinghi those who to have done so, all three coming away with the prize.
The nearest to Guelph on form coming into this years Thousand Guineas is Bound For Earth and she achieved her peak form by running some 2.6 lengths off Guelph in the Flight Stakes - turning the tables looks a mighty ask.
Gregers sits the rough equivalent of a length behind Bound For Earth and her form came when getting the run of things in the Thousand Guineas Prelude.
Gregers ran her last 600m at the same speed as Guelph last time out, having run to the 600m over a metre per second slower.
So it would seem that the race is there for Guelph to lose. And it is.
She’s unquestionably the best filly in the country, as the numbers suggest.
Already a three-time Group 1 winner, Guelph wrote herself into the history books in winning the Flight Stakes (1600m) earlier this month, becoming only the fourth filly in half a century to complete the Champagne Stakes-Flight Stakes double.
The last filly to achieve that feat was Samantha Miss.
Her Flight Stakes win proved she was simply a class above.
Jockey Kerrin McEvoy was happy to sit three wide throughout at Randwick, and when he asked for her to produce in the straight she cruised to victory.
The result was never in doubt. The run produced a weight-adjusted Timeform rating of 110, seven pounds higher than Bound For Earth and a figure that could’ve easily been higher had she been tested to the line.
It followed her Group 2 Tea Rose Stakes (1400m) win where she powered home late to finish 1.8L clear of Arabian Gold.
I’m expecting Guelph to go to a new level of brilliance today, so sit back and enjoy the show.
Bound For Earth simply doesn’t look up to beating Guelph but she could easily finish runner up in this.
David Hayes filly Gregers is perhaps her biggest danger following her last-start win in the Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) at this track.
She went to a new level in winning that finishing a head clear of Marianne but the form simply looks inferior.
Gregers ran to a weight-adjusted figure of 100, 10 pounds below what Guelph produced in that Flight Stakes.
She also looked to be out of gas on the line, and the mile poses a big question mark over her credentials.
Se Sauver might just be next in line off her narrow Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1610m) win at Flemington 11 days ago although she doesn’t rate anywhere near Guelph.
She powered home to get the bob late in that race but only produced a weight-adjusted figure of 92.
Nevertheless she looks well suited to a Caulfield mile, and should keep the battle for minor honours interesting.
