Falklands appears pitchforked in at the weights when looking at the field for Monday’s Armidale Cup (1900m).
Photo by Racing and Sports
The Marc Quinn-trained four-year-old should relish a class drop after two underwhelming results in weekend city company the latest when easily accounted for by Chris Waller-trained import Lunayir.
Falklands commenced his latest campaign with some solid efforts in Sydney and the figures he achieved during those runs auger well for the Viscount geldings chances here.
With a benchmark rating of 74, Falklands is one of just two horses who sits within the handicap of the Armidale Cup with the ever reliable Clever Hans compressing the weights.
Of those outside the handicap, Brave Ali looks the only one capable of mounting a winning challenge.
Race depth drops off sharply after those trio of horses with the remaining nine runners on paper looking better suited in a Benchmark 55 Handicap.
To put in perspective, Centabeel possesses a Benchmark of 59, some 15 ratings points below Falklands.
In a Benchmark race that would equate to a 7.5kg weight difference, instead only 1.5kg separates the pair at the weights.
This equation becomes more condemning the further down the field you look.
From an inside barrier, expect jockey Daniel Edmonds to position Falklands up near the lead and the pair should remain prominent throughout.
Falklands was a model of consistency last campaign however really began to put his best foot forward once getting over 1800m and beyond.
His peak Timeform figure of 91 was achieved over 2000m last preparation when winning the Port Macquarie Cup.
The rating was also yielded at Falklands fifth run back from a spell which is the same point Falklands will be at in his current preparation,
Monday’s Armidale Cup will be Falklands first hitout over a distance further than 1600m this campaign.
In five starts over distances between 1800m and 2000m, Falklands record stands at two wins and as many minor placings.
Falklands trainer Marc Quinn is also enjoying a career best season.
The Port Macquarie-based horseman has trainer 17 winners so far this season at an impressive 27%, figures that are each well up on previous seasons.
As mentioned earlier, the Armidale Cup does shape as a three horse race and the only other horse in the handicap; Clever Hans looms as Falklands main danger.
Clever Hans simply does not know how to run a bad race and last start was no different when finishing fourth at Canterbury.
The reliable customer will be positioned close to Falklands over the middle stages and should have the anticipated favourite in his sights upon straightening.
A big query surrounding Clever Hans though is whether he will run out the 1900m.
The six-year-old is a dual winner over 1800m however did look stretched on both occasions.
Brave Ali is the third elect.
The Tim Martin-trained galloper was dreadful at Canterbury last start when one of the first horses beaten over this trip.
Looking at the Brave Ali’s first up effort at Walcha and the fact he was a model of consistency last campaign, putting the six-year-olds latest showing down to a bad day is not unreasonable.
The O’reilly gelding can bounce back to form third run back from a spell.
It would be a surprise if Monday’s Armidale Cup was not won by Clever Hans, Falklands or Brave Ali.
Out of those trio, Falklands is the one that the strongest case can be made for.
