Outstanding thoroughbred mare Winx has stifled betting on this afternoon’s group one Star 2016 Doncaster Mile run under handicap conditions at Randwick.
The Chris Waller-trained mare is on an eight race winning sequence that started with the Sunshine Guineas at the Gold Coast in May last year but records are not new to Winx - extending her winning sequence to nine today will place her in good company.
In taking out the 2016 Group 1 George Ryder Stakes (1500m) at Rosehill last start, Winx became the first horse to complete the Chipping Norton Stakes-George Ryder double since Lonhro in 2004 with there being only two other runners in the last 30 years to complete the double, Telesto (1994) and Emancipation (1984).
Winx is also the first horse in history to win the Cox Plate-Chipping Norton Stakes-George Ryder Stakes treble in the same season.
Surprisingly only two other horses had previously won the Epsom Handicap-George Ryder double in the same season, 1903- Vaals (1927/8) and Ciaro (1923/4). Winx’s name is now added to that duo.
If Winx is successful today she will be the only horse to win the Epsom Handicap – George Ryder – Doncaster treble in the same season.
But one record that she will share with past greats is the Epsom Handicap – Doncaster Mile in the same season. Super Impose (1990/1), Authentic Heir (1975/6), Gunsynd (1971/2), Broker’s Tip (1969/70), Blue Legend (1046/7) and Chatham (1933/4) all achieved the feat.
Today Winx gets back to handicap conditions as distinct from the more favourable weight for age conditions of her most recent runs.
When winning the Epsom Handicap last October Winx carried 57kgs under the handicap conditions but because weights were raised and compressed she only conceded a kilo to the lowest weighted horse in the race.
Today she faces a much harder task as she has to give away 6.5kgs to the lowest weighted horses in the race.
With this weight spread, of course immediate comparisons are made between two most recent winners of the Doncaster Mile in More Joyous and Sunline.
Limit weights have changed almost yearly but looking at the absolute weight spreads for those mares compared to Winx does reveal an interesting statistic. Sunline carried 58kgs to win her second Doncaster Mile in 2002 with a weight spread of 8.5kgs while More Joyous enjoyed a more favourable weight spread of 5.5 kgs when carrying 57.5kgs to victory in 2012.
Sunline was also runner up to Over in the 2000 Doncaster Mile with 57.5kgs and a weight spread of 8kgs.
This afternoon Winx is in similar territory to that pair carrying 56.5kgs with a weight spread of 6.5kgs.
Winx comes into the Doncaster Mile with similar Timeform ratings to both Sunline and More Joyous having won the G1 George Ryder Stakes running to a Timeform rating of 126p – equalling her previous master figure from the Cox Plate romp last year.
Sunline and More Joyous had master Timeform ratings of 128 and 125 respectively coming into their Doncaster Mile wins.
However Winx has more to give after her Ryder win. She will need to go to a new peak today in order to win. However I am confident she can do that as Hugh Bowman had her idling to the line in the Ryder after putting her well credentialed rivals to the sword 300m from home.
The George Ryder Stakes – Doncaster Mile double has been achieved previously with Haradasun (2007), Racing To Win (2006), Emancipation (1983)) and Dalrello (1975) having completed it. Of course Real Impact and Pierro, George Ryder winners in the last two years were both runners up in the Doncaster Mile at their next run so the race is an excellent Doncaster Mile lead up.
The task ahead for Winx is one of her biggest challenges on a racetrack. However she is in devastating form and has scope for further improvement in her ratings which should see her stretch the winning run to nine and become the seventh mare to win the Doncaster Mile since 1990.
There are several horses on Timeform weight adjusted ratings that pose a threat to Winx, headed by stable mate and 2015 Doncaster Mile winner Kermadec, Villiers Handicap winner Happy Clapper, Blamey Stakes winner He Or She and 2015 Rosehill Guineas winner Volkstok’N’Barrell.
Kermadec will be aiming to join a select band of horses that have gone back to back in the Doncaster Mile including former stable inmate Sacred Falls, Super Impose, Tudor Hill, Slogan II, Blue Legend and Mildura.
And his form coming into today suggests trainer Chris Waller has him ready to peak again.
Sydney’s leading trainer, Waller knows what it takes to win the big mile races at Randwick having landed both the last three renewals of the Epsom Handicap and Doncaster Mile – today he shoots for a record fourth straight Doncaster Mile.
Kermadec resumed in the G1 2016 Canterbury Stakes at Randwick and had little luck after beginning slowly finishing third. Then last start he beat all bar Winx in the George Ryder Stakes running on solidly from near the rear of the field.
Kermadec is third up today – a state he races well in having captured the G1 2015 George Main Stakes over today’s course and distance last campaign.
Zac Purtin flies in from Hong Kong to take the mount.
If there is a weight horse to trouble the top weights it could be the 2015 Villiers Handicap winner Happy Clapper who has followed exactly the same lead up path as Kermadec but significantly drops 8.5 kgs in weight from the George Ryder run when fifth just over five lengths from Winx.
Happy Clapper has an excellent record at 1600m and with regular rider Brenton Avdulla wasting to get close to the handicap weight of 50.5kgs is a good lead for punters.
Last start Blamey Stakes winner He Or She also looms as a light weight hope.
A former Western Australian trained galloper now with Team Hayes, He Or She comes here after an impressive win over 1600m in the Blamey where he defeated subsequent G1 2016 Ranvet Stakes winner United States.
That looms as a strong form line and He Or She who posted a new career high Timeform rating since joining Team Hayes and began racing in blinkers at the start of this preparation.
Just one horse has ever completed the Blamey – Doncaster Mile double – the mighty chestnut Tobin Bronze in 1967.
New Zealander galloper Volkstok’N’Barrell comes into the race on the back of two group one weight for age wins at home and although dropping back from 2000m today looks well weighted on 52.5kgs.
The winner of the G1 2015 Rosehill Guineas, Volkstok’N’Barrell will create his own piece of history if successful as not Rosehill Guineas winner has won the Doncaster the following season at four.
An interesting aside is the fact that for just the second time in 25 years, the Doncaster Mile does not have a three-year-old competing. The last time this occurred was in 2010.
Enjoy an intriguing Doncaster Mile renewal.
Sires Produce Stakes
Over the past 20 years the Golden Slipper has been the key guide to the Sires Produce and that looks like being the case again in 2016.
The Golden Slipper has served up 14 of the last 20 winners of the Sires Produce – understandable given the Slipper’s standing and position on the calendar.
Pierro, Sebring, Dance Hero and Merlene won both races, while 8 of the other 10 Sires winners to come through the Golden Slipper were placed at Rosehill prior to their Randwick triumph.
That profile points firmly towards the David Vandyke-trained Yankee Rose in the 2016 Sires Produce and so does Timeform’s ratings assessment of the field.
Yankee Rose went into the 2016 Golden Slipper Stakes off an unconventional preparation – first up since November.
She was unbeaten in two runs in 2015 and only enhanced her reputation in the 2016 Golden Slipper, storming home to beat all bar the winner Capitalist in a hugely promising display that returned a Timeform rating of 117p.
With that run under her belt it would seem that she is now better prepared for her Sires target and improvement could be expected on her Golden Slipper performance. Given that she looks fairly ominous with a rating of 117 typically good enough to win the Sires for a filly – the most recent filly to win the Sires, Peggy Jean in 2014, only required a rating of 113 to come away with the prize.
The key danger to her is Telperion who closed into fourth in the Golden Slipper and looks well suited by the step up to 1400m.
He’s got some work to do if he is to turn the tables on Yankee Rose, not only from their Rosehill meeting last time but from their clash back in October when Yankee Rose held an almost identical margin to Telperion.
It’s a solid formline and one that holds clear top billing over their rivals from other angles in the Sires Produce.
The most interesting away from that pair is Chris Waller’s Omei Sword, a well bred filly who looks to have a big future.
She won somewhat unsuspectingly on debut and then stepped up her performance when a closing second in the 2016 Magic Night Stakes at Rosehill.
She will have to step up again to win the Sires but she is the fresh horse on the scene and it’s a path that has been taken to success here in the past. Peggy Jean finished second in the Magic Night prior to her 2014 Sires Produce win as did Camarilla in 2007.
ATC DerbyThe VRC Derby winner has turned up at Randwick for the ATC Derby 11 times without success since Mahogany did the double back in 1993.
On Saturday the Mick Price-trained Tarzino will be out to break that drought and Timeform ratings point to him being well equipped to do so.
Tarzino was rated 119p after his VRC Derby success in the spring and he quickly showed that he was back ready to go on with it in the autumn, matching that peak when beaten by the narrowest of margins in the Australian Guineas over the mile.
He then went to a new peak at Rosehill last time, taking control of the Derby’s most important precursor at the corner, and keeping his rivals comfortably at bay over the 2000m contest, earning himself a Timeform rating of 122.
Mahogany went into the ATC Derby rated 127, so comparisons between the pair flatter Tarzino at this stage, but relative to the field he faces on Saturday Tarzino holds a distinctive class edge.
Nearest to him on Timeform ratings are the VRC Oaks winner Jameka (rated 116) and the Spring Champion winner Vanbrugh (rated 114p).
Perhaps Tarzino’s biggest danger is the rapidly improving Tally – rated 109p.
He will have to take a step forward to trouble Tarzino but he is going the right way about it with his ratings profile spiralling upwards in a campaign that has netted four wins from as many starts.
There are a couple of formlines that point to Tally being around the mark on Saturday. At Moonee Valley last time he comfortably beat Tarzino’s Australian Guineas conqueror Palentino and, back in the spring time, he was just a couple of lengths away from Tarzino in the Vase – again at Moonee Valley.
While no VRC Derby winner has succeeded at Randwick since Mahogany there have been eight ATC Derby winners that have contested the VRC Derby in the spring. The last couple to do so – Criterion and Dundeel – came to Randwick as dominant winners of the Rosehill Guineas. The stage is set for Tarzino to join them on Saturday and confirm himself as the best three-year-old stayer in Australia.
