Gary Crispe Timeform Preview – 2016 BMW Stakes

Reputations and future race programs go on the line in this afternoon’s group one 2016 BMW Stakes over 2400m at Rosehill.

In what looks to be a tricky horse race for punters to assess, kiwi trained and dual Derby winner Mongolian Khan only has to reproduce his Timeform rating at 2400m to remain unbeaten over the distance.

However he is opposed by 2016 Australian Cup and 2015 Turnbull Stakes winner Preferment, German import Our Ivanhowe, 2015 Zipping Classic winner Who Shot Thebarman and 2015 Sydney Cup winner Grand Marshall.

An impressive winner of the 2015 Caulfield Cup in the spring, Mongolian Khan sits with the highest Timeform rating of any runner in the race on 126 but after two runs back from a spell looks set to peak again this afternoon.

Last Autumn, Mongolian Khan completed the NZ Derby – Australian Derby double both at the classic distance of 2400m – the first horse to do so since the mighty Bonecrusher in 1985 and then added the Caulfield Cup in the spring thereby keeping his record in tact at 2400m from just three attempts.

The Tasmanian bred Mongolian Khan is prepared by the astute Murray Baker who is no stranger to winning big races, Dundeel a case in point, taking the 2014 Queen Elizabeth Stakes after a meticulously planned preparation.

Murray has prepared Mongolian Khan a little differently for the BMW. After his Caulfield Cup victory Mongolian Khan fell ill and had to be scratched from the 2015 Melbourne Cup, a race he was destined to start nearly favourite in.

After recuperating in Melbourne. Mongolian Khan travelled back to New Zealand to be prepared for the BMW. After a trial in New Zealand, Mongolian Khan resumed in the 2016 Chipping Norton Stakes over 1600m at Randwick. After travelling with the speed he tired badly in the closing stages to be soundly beaten behind Winx. He was later found to be suffering an abnormality and had to barrier trial.

Mongolian Khan then took his place in last Saturday’s 2016 Ranvet Stakes over 2000m and again after travelling strongly early in the race, tired out of proceedings in the last 200m beaten just over 4 lengths – his rider Oppie Bosson later cautioned by stewards for not riding the stallion out to the line.

Today Mongolian Khan comes off a seven day back up, gets back to Randwick, the scene of his 2015 Australian Derby win and should strip much fitter for recent racing.

Mongolian Khan has the capability to race handy and when fully fit proves a hard opponent to get past in a tight finish. If successful today he will join Might And Power (1997/8) and Ethereal (2001/02) as the only horses in the last 30 years to win the Caulfield Cup – BMW double in the same season. He would also join past Australian Derby winners Eremein (2005/6) and Octagonal (1997/8) to win the BMW the following season at four.

The Australian Cup has been a reasonable guide to the BMW and recent winner Preferment lays serious claims on that basis alone.

Past BMW winners to complete the double in the last 30 years include Manighar (2012), Makybe Diva (2005) and Octagonal (1997).

Winner of the 2014 Victoria Derby, 2015 Turnbull Stakes and 2016 Australian Cup, Preferment is a classy stayer who demonstrated his versatility last start to win the Australian Cup after being ridden outside his normal running style.

With the early tempo farcical in the Australian Cup, race rider Hugh Bowman was left with no alternative but to sit second behind the slow pace and although failing to reel in the leader on the line did manage to get the race in the stewards’ room.

Preferment ran to a Timeform rating of 121 in the Australian Cup, a couple of pounds below his 123 master figure and as that was just his second run back from a spell, he should run to at least that level today – a figure he returned when third up last preparation.

Although yet to win in Australia, Our Ivanhowe under the care of Team Freedman has shown plenty of promise in seven Australian runs – his highest Timeform rating 122 coming when third in the 2015 Caulfield Cup behind Mongolian Khan.

On that occasion Our Ivanhowe gave Mongolian Khan a kilo in weight and finished just under two lengths behind him after staging a battle all the way down the home straight. Today they meet on level weights with the kilo difference bringing pair closer together.

A dual group one winner in Germany before coming down under, Our Ivanhowe had a Timeform rating of 123 and on his best form under Team Freedman is not far off reproducing that figure here.

Our Ivanhowe has raced twice since finishing a creditable 10th in a farcical run 2015 Melbourne Cup, finishing an unlucky fifth first up in the 2016 Peter Young Stakes (1800m) and last start fifth in the 2016 Australian Cup behind Preferment.

The 2016 Australian Cup was also run at a farcical tempo that did not suit any horse that raced back in the field. Our Ivanhowe was worse than midfield on the home turn but rallied in the straight to pull some ground off the winner Preferment.

That effort earned Our Ivanhowe a Timeform rating of 118 so clearly there is more to come this afternoon.

If there is an upset it could come from the Chris Waller trainer Who Shot Thebarman who has been bought to top form after three preparation runs.

Last time out the 2014 Melbourne Cup placegetter raced in the 2016 Sky High Stakes closing off strongly late after being with the speed throughout running to a Timeform rating of 120 – just under his master figure.

Certainly a return to his dominant seven length win in the 2015 Zipping Classic would put him in the finish.

Enjoy the race.