The 2016 Hobart Cup looks made to order for the Chris Waller-trained Quick Strike.
With no Gee Gee's Blackflash to fly the flag the locals look a touch vulnerable in the Cup this year and Quick Strike is well poised to take advantage of that.
After a series of solid efforts in Sydney, Quick Strike switched down to Melbourne, perhaps with an eye towards a trip across the Tasman should he remain in form.
He has remained in form, surging strongly and just peaking on a long run behind the very talented Luques at Flemington before running well in a race that was hardly run to suit him last time at Caulfield.
That was a very stop-start race, far from ideal for Quick Strike who, giving weight all around, would have wanted an even gallop.
Momentum is key and today he gets the services of Damien Oliver, a master of riding horses for rhythm/momentum in staying races - his record in the biggest Cups on the mainland can attest to that.
The compressed handicap is another big tick for Quick Strike today. He is extremely well placed at level weights against all bar local mare Geegees Goldengirl and after adjusting for those weights he is narrowly the highest rated on last start performance but clearly the top rater when it comes to career peak.
Given that we think there are excuses for him being slightly below that peak in his latest couple it is easy to envisage him finding his best here and that is likely to prove too good for his rivals. It certainly makes prices better than $4.00 look very appealing - Check out TopBetta's Hobart Cup market here
The local defence is led by Summer Cup 1-2 Up Cups and Geegees Goldengirl.
Geegees Goldengirl was one of the stars of last year's carnival, winning the Strutt and the Tasmanian Oaks, and she has come back better than ever this campaign, running a pair of really good races behind Admiral and winning the Devonport Cup.
She was run down by Up Cups last time, though, and meets him on worse terms today. Turning the tables is going to take a big performance from the mare and Up Cups has to be seen as the one most likely to defend the Cup for the home team.
Wales is another coming across from the mainland with solid winning claims.
He ran out of his skin in the Ballarat Cup in November and snapped a losing drought at Moonee Valley last time.
This will surely prove tougher for him but he has always been a bit of a talent and the win last time might be the confidence builder he needed to go on with it.
Wary of him, but ultimately his form is below that of Quick Strike who deserves to be at the top of betting.
Best of luck and happy punting.
