Timeform Preview – 2015 BMW

A crackerjack line up will face off in this afternoon’s group 1 BMW over 2400m at Rosehill.

To The World set for Aussie debut Picture: Japan Racing Association

All eyes will be on last season’s top rated three-year-old in Japan To The World who will be having his first run at the Sydney Autumn carnival.

A veteran of just ten race starts his form book reads very well winning four races and second placings in Japanese 2000 Guineas (2000m) and Arima Kinen (2400m).

Prior to running second in the Arima Kinen, To The World was Timeform rated 124, however his flashing second to champion mare Gentildonna in probably the strongest 2400m race run around the globe in 2014 saw his rating go to 128.

To The World has not raced since the Arima Kinen but that should not be an issue as he is yet to miss a place in three runs that state, winning once.

To be ridden by Nick Hall, To The World is a very versatile galloper who can either race handy or sit off the pace – an attribute that he could well find a big advantage this afternoon as there is no recognised pacemaker in the race.

The biggest danger is the revitalised former UK galloper Hartnell now with Godolphin and under the care of John O’Shea.

Before setting foot in Australia, the then three-year-old Hartnell was a winner of five of his 13 race starts - last racing in the English Classic the St leger Stakes at Doncaster finishing well beaten behind Kingston Hill.

However his form prior was excellent winning the G3 Bahrain Stakes (2600m) at Newmarket and the Queen’s Vase (3200m) at Royal Ascot.

As an aside the Queen’s Vase has been an excellent form race in recent times with subsequent Royal Ascot Gold Cup winners Leading Light and Estimate both winning it the season prior.

Hartnell’s two runs in Australia have been first class, first up he was unluckily beaten into second place behind Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes and then scoring easily in the G3 Sky High Stakes (2000m) at Rosehill.

There is no doubt this afternoon’s 2400m will be much more to his liking and he looks set to improve further on his new Timeform peak rating in Australia of 120p.

2014 Melbourne Cup winner Protectionist has been improved by two runs at weight for age over shorter than his optimum distance, firstly in the Peter Young Stakes over 1800m then last start in a substandard G1 Australian Cup over 2000m.

In both those runs, protectionist has rated almost 20 pounds below his Melbourne Cup winning rating under handicap conditions but at the same time returning Timeform ratings consistent with performances in Europe over 2000m.

This afternoon will afford the big former german trained galloper the opportunity to improve significantly on those performances.

Who Shot TheBarman and Lucia Valentina are also poised to race well.

Under Chris Waller’s care Who Shot TheBarman has lift his timeform rating to 119 when a slashing third in the Melbourne Cup behind Protectionist.

In two runs back from a spell the gelding has raced well both times in unsuitable races.

First up he was fifth behind Contributer in the G1 Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) and last start fourth behind Hartnell in the Sky High Stakes.

While he will be fitter again this afternoon, there is no doubt the Sydney Cup under handicap conditions is a more suitable assignment.

Quality mare Lucia Valentina is another who is ready to improve again.

Seemingly taken along a bit steadier this campaign, Lucia Valentina has now raced three times since a spell and although yet to be successful, she has raced well enough to come under consideration today, provided she can regain her peak form from last spring.

Lucia Valentina’s best rating performance this campaign was her last run in the Ranvet Stakes over 2000m last Saturday behind Contributer.

Lucia Valentina did not have the best of luck in the straight last Saturday running to a Timeform rating of 113, some five pounds below her peak 118 rating achieved last spring.

It is interesting to note that her fourth run last campaign she was a slashing third in the 2014 Caulfield Cup over 2400m – a repeat of that effort sees her in the frame here, especially as she receives four pound allowance under the weight for age scale.

Enjoy a great BMW renewal.


today's racing

Error occured
{{disciplineGroup.DisciplineFullText}}
{{course.CountryName || course.Country}}