Spillway looks a strong chance to land what would be a well deserved win at the back end of the spring carnival in today’s Zipping Classic.
Spillway came to Australia rated 114 by Timeform, a figure he earned in a couple of performances in the UK where he was competitive with some handy horses.
He didn’t have to better that figure when winning for the first time in Australia, taking out a listed race at Randwick over 2000m back in the autumn.
This spring he has stepped up on that form, running to a Timeform rating of 119 with a closing fourth in the Makybe Diva and matching that figure when filling the same position in the Mackinnon Stakes last time.
In-between he was luckless when well fancied in the Naturalism and was below form in the Metropolitan back up in Sydney.
The Metropolitan was his only run at 2400m in Australia which does raise some query about him at the trip.
He was perhaps settled up too close to a strong gallop that day, though, and a look through today’s field doesn’t suggest an overly torrid tempo is on the cards.
That can play into the hands of Spillway who has shown a neat turn of foot over shorter trips and if this were to develop into a ‘sit and sprint’ it would likely be an advantage for him over a couple of his key rivals today.
Those key rivals are headed by the in form Prince Of Penzance who won the Moonee Valley Cup in good style before closing strongly and just missing in the Queen Elizabeth over 2600m at Flemington last week.
His form has earned him a Timeform rating of 116, which is three pounds higher than the last two winners of this race – both of which came off the Queen Elizabeth to land this prize.
His form ties in with French visitor Au Revoir who runs for Andre Fabre.
Au Revoir was beaten by Prince Of Penzance at Moonee Valley and followed that up with a good effort in the Melbourne Cup, racing on pace and holding on to finish in the top half.
His campaign is very similar to that of American who won this race in 2011 after winning the Moonee Valley Cup and running fourth on the first Tuesday in November.
The biggest difference of course was that Americain was rated 12 pounds higher than Au Revoir but he didn’t have to be at his very best to be winning at Sandown and Au Revoir won’t have to be at that level to be mighty hard to beat this afternoon.
They look the three key chances but 2012 Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon is certainly worthy of mention.
He hasn’t been able to win in 12 runs since his most famous success but he has run some good races in that time – notably his runner up effort in this year’s Australian Cup – and if he was to bring his best here he would be a serious contender.
He was okay last time in the Caulfield Cup but not quite at his peak level and he has had a setback that kept him out of the Melbourne Cup in the time since.
To beat a horse three years his junior like Spillway at this stage would take a fine effort from the former Cup winner.
Best of luck and happy punting.
