Luca Cumani looks set to become the first British handler to take the Melbourne Cup home today courtesy of the well weighted Mount Athos.
Tragically beaten last year Mount Athos will be Cumani’s 11th Cup runner, a journey that began when Cumani bought the moderately performed Glistening to run tenth in the 2006 renewal of Australia’s iconic race.
Cumani has gone so close to winning the Cup previously running second on two occasions with Purple Moon (2007) and Bauer (2008), so he knows exactly what is required to win it.
Although the picket fence form line of last year is missing from Mount Athos’s current formbook, significantly he arrives with similar Timeform ratings from recent racing in the UK, which when adjusted for the same handicap weight that he carried last year gives him a slight edge.
In last year’s Melbourne Cup, Mount Athos was ridden worse than midfield early but was knocked off stride twice at crucial stages which caused him to lose momentum when making vital headway approaching the home turn and again in the home straight.
Despite these setbacks Mount Athos was closing fast on the line finishing fifth behind Green Moon who he meets three-and-a-half kilos better this afternoon.
Mount Athos has been given a light campaign in Britain this season, running just four times for an effortless win fresh up in the Diamond Ormonde Stakes at Chester then two unplaced efforts in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and G2 Goodwood Cup before returning to form last start in the Listed March Stakes over 2816m just going down under 62.5kgs to handy stayer Harris Tweed at Goodwood.
It is wise to overlook his two out of the frame efforts as he was ridden too far back in the field on both occasions, Mount Athos returning to top form last start running to a Timeform rating of 124.
In an interesting move Cumani has elected to engage leading Australian rider Craig Williams to partner Mount Athos, a booking that significantly was made two moths ago.
Williams who was robbed of a Melbourne Cup win atop Dunaden in 2011, when suspended in controversial circumstances, will relish the opportunity to join an elite group of riders who have won the grand slam of features - Golden Slipper Stakes, Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup.
The Marco Botti-trained Dandino now owned in Australian interests rates as the main danger on the back of his outstanding second in the Caulfield Cup, one of the signature lead up races for the Cup, and running to a new Timeform master figure of 122.
Botti has the reputation of improving older horses that are transferred under his care and that has certainly been the case with Dandino.
Since Joining Botti, Dandino has raced four times for a win and three seconds and improving his Timeform rating to a new master level of 122.
At his second start for Botti, Dandino was just beaten in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes (2400m) at Royal Ascot behind Thomas Chippendale then taken to America he scored easily in the St Leger Stakes (2714m) before heading down under for the Cups double.
Craig Williams was atop Dandino in the G1 Caulfield Cup and the pair powered home after experiencing an interrupted passage getting into the race approaching and rounding the home turn.
Once balanced up, Dandino showed a rare turn of foot to beat all bar Fawkner and will drop 2 kilos on that effort today.
Although his formbook shows two unplaced efforts at distances longer than 2714m in both the British St Leger Stakes (2935m) and Lonsdale Cup (3299m) there were genuine excuses for both failures and they can be discounted as a guide to Dandino running a strong 3200m.
The Caulfield Cup has always been a good guide to the Melbourne Cup with 11 of the past 23 Cup winners using the race as part of their Cup lead up race programme, the most recent Viewed in 2008 and Dandino fits that criteria.
Cup favourite is the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente who was second behind Green Moon in the 2012 Cup renewal. By all accounts he has had a faultless preparation and seems to be peaking at the right time, but he will need to be in at least the same form as he was in 2012 when he rated 124, to be a winning hope.
Fiorente was an eye catching fourth in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) at Flemington two starts back, a run that subsequently precipitated a riding switch from Nash Rawiller to Damien Oliver today.
Then last start he did a lot of early work after starting from a wide barrier in the G1 Cox Plate finishing third behind Shamus Award running to 122, his highest rating this campaign.
It is plausible that he will at least return to his master rating of 124 today as he enters unchartered waters at his fifth run from a spell; the longest campaign in his brief career to date has been a maximum of four runs.
Fiorente will also be aiming to join Empire Rose (1987) and Gold and Black (1976) as the only gallopers in history to run second in the Cup then return to win the following year.
Waterhouse will also be represented by recent purchase Tres Blue who has only just arrived in quarantine in Victoria where he is being prepared for the Cup.
Runner up in the German Derby in July, he has won his last two runs in Deauville against older horses but will need to find a few pounds on his 119+ Timeform rating to be a serious winning hope, but definitely one for the multiple players.
Lloyd Williams who has won the Melbourne Cup four times, the last in 2012 with Green Moon is likely to have multiple runners, Green Moon, Seville, Fawkner, Masked Marvel and Sea Moon.
All have chances but Timeform adjusted ratings suggest Sea Moon could be the best of them.
A former top class galloper when racing in the UK, he has hit winning form after three runs down under, last start toughing it out to win the Herbert Power Handicap over 2400m at Caulfield under 59.5kgs.
While the field was not quality, there was a lot of merit in the performance, his winning weight being the heaviest carried to victory since 1955 when the mighty Rising Fast won with 61kgs, and the fourth heaviest weight carried to win a Herbert Power since the race was first run in 1898.
The Timeform merit of Sea Moon’s win was assessed at 124, just three pounds short of his UK master rating and is the highest rating returned by either the winner or a beaten runner in the Herbert Power in the last 25 years.
While the Herbert Power is regarded as a lead up to the Caulfield Cup, historically it has had more significance for the Melbourne Cup with past winners Gala Supreme (1973), Van Der Hum (1976), Arwon (1978) and Rogan Josh (1999) all completing the double. 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking was runner up in the Herbert Power.
Further improvement has been anticipated today and his class could be vital in the closing stages of the Cup especially as he will carry 56.5kgs.
Stable mate Seville was unsuited by the Cox Plate last start but at his start prior he was a strong winner of the G1 Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick. Seville will be aiming to become the first Metropolitan winner to take the Cup double since Macdougal in 1959.
There remains a doubt over Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner (Timeform rated 121) getting the strong 3200m especially after receiving a kilo and a half penalty. But he cannot be discounted entirely because of the Caulfield Cup’s record in producing Melbourne Cup winners. He will join an elite group if successful in taking the double, something that has only been done on 10 previous occasions. Those to accomplish the feat in the last 30 years are Ethereal, Might And Power, Doriemus and Let’s Elope.
Irish St Leger winning mare Voleuse De Coeurs now owned by Australian interests and prepared by Michael Moroney who takes over from Dermot Weld is the query runner.
She has won five of her 13 races starts and streaked away with the Irish St leger (2816m) last time out by a widening six lengths.
Voleurs De Coeurs (Timeform rated 122) was sold shortly after that win and sent to Australia for the Cup. The query is whether she has acclimatised well enough to run to that level at her first race in Australia and defy the poor record of overseas horses who have had their first run in the Cup. Something like over 60 have tried, the only one to have achieved the feat was Vintage Crop in 1993 and incidentally he was the last horse to complete the St Leger-Cup double.
Enjoy a competitive Cup
2013 Melbourne Cup Timeform Weight Adjusted Ratings
Mount Athos 145
Dandino 144
Fiorente 143
Voleuse De Coeurs 143
Dear Demi 143
Hawkspur 142
Simenon 142
Royal Empire 142
