Last season’s record breaking Sydney premiership winning trainer Chris Waller looks set to start off the new season where he left of the last one with a strong hand in the Winter Challenge Final at Rosehill this afternoon.
The feature is headed in the handicap on 59 kgs by Waller’s new stable acquisition Bayrir who is joined by stable mates Wazn and Coup Ay Tee, all three staking claims for victory over the 1500m trip.
Of most interest is former French trained Bayrir, already a group one winner at Arlington in the US as a three-year-old but further down in the weights Coup Ay Tee looks set to bounce back off two below par runs and provide punters with an excellent each way play.
A three timer on his home Rosehill track, Coup Ay Tee has had excuses at each of his last two outings but his form prior was first class for today’s assignment.
Last start over 1400m he got a long way out of his ground performing nine pounds below form when chasing the inform Under The Sun who opposes him again today. But given the slow tempo of that race early, it made the task of making up ground from back in the field impossible. So there was plenty of merit in the effort of Coup Ay Tee who turned for home in last place, eventually getting into third on the line, but significantly Coup Ay Tee meets Under The Sun three kilos better today.
Two back Coup Ay Tee put in a shocker at Rosehill on a heavy track, subsequent vet examinations showing nothing amiss so it is best to overlook the run.
A better guide to his prospects is his run prior where he ran Under The Sun to a half length over 1400m at Randwick and meets that galloper a hefty five and a half kilos better this afternoon.
Timeform rated 107, Coup Ay Tee looks attractively placed on weight adjusted figures as he carries the limit weight of 54kgs. Jason Collett will again be atop the gelding, the pair building a handy partnership winning three times and placing four times from nine match ups.
Coup Ay Tee does not need to get a long way back in his races and I am expecting him to take closer order in the field here. If so I can see him being right in the finish and at the odds on offer looks a strong each way chance.
Proven group one performer Bayrir will be kept safe by bookmakers and a close study of his form reveals why.
Formerly in the stable of Alain de Royer Dupre, Bayrir has raced eight times for four wins including the group 2 Grand Prix de Maisons Leffitte for 3YO over 2000m in France and the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes over 2000m at Arlington.
Bayrir also ran second in the Prix Niel, a major lead up race to the Arc, behind the handy Saonois over 2400m at Longchamp so it is not hard to understand why he has been asked to carry top weight.
Easily the best horse in the race, Bayrir is Timeform rated 119, a figure if repeated here would see him the victor, but I guess the big query is the 1500m distance.
Will it be too short for Bayrir to produce his best or will class just prevail?
Waller has a great record with imported runners and Bayrir rates as one of the best he has had his hands on since he led the charge for Aussie buyers in the northern hemisphere some years back.
Bayrir has been taken along steadily by Waller, the entire running in two trials as a lead up, but given Waller’s prowess in getting these imported gallopers to perform right from their first Australian start he has to be kept safe as a live winning chance.
Interestingly Bayrir has won his only start resuming and that was over 1800m so the 1500m today may not be an impossible ask. Certainly he has loads of class and sometimes that alone will ensure victory.
Bayrir last raced in the G1 Hong Kong Vase over 2400m in December finishing sixth behind Red Cadeaux.
The Gai Waterhouse-trained Under The Sun is the form horse and obvious choice for punters reaching a new career peak Timeform rating of 109 when an all the way winner last start over 1400m at Rosehill.
That was his first win since leading throughout over this course and distance back in November last year where he defeated Merlin Mustang.
Under The Sun is also a three time winner at Rosehill and two from three at this distance so he has plenty in his favour again, not the least of which is the fact he should get a relatively unchallenged role as pacemaker, a state he is always races well in.
Under The Sun and Coup Ay Tee have met four times to date with the former holding sway three to one, but as highlighted above, Coup Ay Tee has a significant weight turn around this afternoon that should ensure a closer contest between the pair.
Despite rising sharply in the weights, Under The Sun will again be ridden by French rider Thomas Huet who has built up a great strike rate with Waterhouse of better than 40%, so the pair should be in the picture for a long way.
Queensland galloper Bold Glance is not without claims. The veteran galloper was sent to Sydney for his current campaign, five runs yielding just a third placing to date and that was at Rosehill two back on heavy ground behind Merlin Mustang.
Timeform rated 114 off old form, the eight-year-old raced four pounds below that figure two runs back and 11 pounds last time out behind Under The Sun.
Bold Glance is mixing his form and seems to be struggling to recapture his best right now but the engagement of former Hong Kong-based Tim Clark for the first time is an interesting move.
It is 308 days since his last win however he appeals as a definite multiples chance.
