Crack colt All Too hard will have much to live up to this afternoon when he lines up as favourite in the Group 1 C F Orr Stakes over 1400m at Caulfield.
Photo by Racing and Sports
A half brother to world champion sprinting mare Black Caviar, All Too Hard will be aiming to keep the Orr Stakes trophy in the family, his big sister prevailing in the race last year when having her first run at 1400m.
Today’s race will also see a change of silks on the outstanding three-year-old who was sold as part of a package deal late last year to a syndicate headed by Vinery Stud for a reported $25 million.
So the pressure is indeed on for the colt to pick up his form where he left off in October, coming off a last start second placing to Ocean Park in the G1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley.
That run earned All Too Hard a Timeform rating of 127, the highest recorded by a three-year-old in the Cox Plate since Red Anchor’s 1984 victory.
Now run under standard weight for age conditions, the Orr Stakes was first held in 1925. Since that time the race has endured several changes in conditions and distance. It was upgraded from G2 to G1 in 1994 and has been regularly used a starting point for horses embarking on Sydney or Melbourne Autumn campaigns.
Over the years many of Australia’s top class gallopers have won the Orr Stakes but just two horses have managed to win it on three consecutive occasions, Vo Rogue (1988,89,90) and Manikato (1979,80,81), with Black Caviar being clearly the highest Timeform rated winner of the race in the modern era on 134.
Clearly some focus this afternoon will be the historical aspect for three-year-olds contesting the Orr Stakes and what if any impact that is likely to have on the prospects of All Too Hard.
The short answer is very little. In the last 20 years, 28 three-year-olds have contested the Orr Stakes, six have been successful and a further six placed. Three-year-olds as a group make up just 12.7% of the runners yet they win 30% of the races.
In fact the six three-year-olds to win the Orr Stakes all occurred between 1998 and 2003, (Special Dane, Grand Archway, Redoute’s Choice, Desert Sky, Barkada and Yell).
The last three-year-old to contest the Orr Stakes was Von Costa De Hero in 2009. He finished fifth. The last of the age group to place was the now champion sire Savabeel who pushed crack galloper Elvstroem to a head in 2005. He had a Timeform rating of 122.
So All Too Hard has nothing to fear from a historical perspective and nor should he from the ratings angle either. Of all the three-year-olds to contest the Orr Stakes, only the crack colt Redoute’s Choice comes close to his rating going into the race.
Redoute’s Choice went into the 2000 renewal with a Timeform rating of 125, two pounds inferior to the figure All Too Hard has this afternoon, yet he was able to defeat classy three-year-old filly and subsequent G1 Newmarket Handicap winner Miss Pennymoney plus older G1 performers. He ran a Timeform rating of 126.
If there is a question mark over All Too Hard this afternoon it relates only to his fitness to handle a solidly run 1400m fresh up from a spell.
All Too Hard won in that state on debut but then last campaign struggled behind the speedy Snitzerland in the G3 San Domenico Stakes over 1100m around Rosehill. Still there were excuses.
Apart from finding the distance too short, All Too Hard missed the start by a couple of lengths settling near last in a very slow run early sectional. He eventually finished third under 59kgs conceding 3kgs to the winner but found it hard to give away such a big start under these circumstances.
Today there will be better speed and certainly 1400m fresh up will be much more to his liking. Despite drawing out, race rider Dwayne Dunn will ease back and then produce him in the straight.
A performance close to 127 will see him take the Orr Stakes out and join a select group of previous winners. In fact apart from last year, a Timeform rating of 123 has been the level required for victory.
In an interesting aside All Too Hard’s form at 1400m and beyond is impeccable. An examination of the horses to have beaten All Too Hard under that scenario reads very well headed by Pierro, Shoot Out, Rangirangdoo, Secret Admirer and Ocean Park, any one of which would give the Orr Stakes today a real shake.
Away from All Too Hard, a small but select field of older gallopers will line up, the clear danger being the classy New Zealander King Mufhasa who runs for a new stable this afternoon, Brian Wallace taking over from Stephen McKee.
The now eight-year-old has raced 56 times for 20 wins, 10 of those coming at group one level, including two in Australia, 2011 Toorak Handicap (1600m) and 2012 Futurity Stakes (1400m) both at Caulfield.
King Mufhasa has a master Timeform rating of 123 and there is no doubt about his ability fresh up having won four times and placed twice in that state from eight attempts.
Last campaign when fresh up he was not disgraced in the G1 Makfi Stakes over 1400m at Hastings finishing close up to crack galloper Ocean Park.
Leading rider Michael Rodd who already has a win aboard the gelding is reunited with him today and the pair look set to make their presence felt over the 1400m, perhaps King Mufhasa’s “pet” distance where he has won six times and placed six times from 18 starts.
A free flowing galloper, I expect King Mufhasa to lead and at some stage in the straight, All Too Hard will have the task of running him down.
Recent import Mawingo and ever-green Pinwheel look to be the other possible winning chances under the weight for age conditions.
Pinwheel takes a Timeform rating of 121 into the race but realistically is a few pounds off true group one standard, seven previous starts at that level yielding just a third and two fourths thus far.
The Peter Snowden-trained gelding comes off an unlucky second to Sea Lord in the G2 Australia Stakes over 1200m around the tight Moonee Valley circuit where he seldom seemed comfortable never getting into his racing rhythm.
At his start prior also over 1200m in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes he was a close up fourth to the unbeaten Barakey, the only two runs he has had since the G1 Rupert Clarke back in September.
It is noteworthy that his last win was in the G2 Warwick Stakes over 1400m at Warwick Farm in August defeating Secret Admirer and Danleigh – a run that earned him his 121 rating.
No doubt Pinwheel will appreciate getting back to 1400m this afternoon. If All Too hard and King Mufhasa don’t run to form, then he could make the finish interesting.
The same argument applies to Mawingo who resumes from a spell but is more likely to find the distance against him as well.
The former German galloper has raced six times in Australia since joining Anthony Freedman’s stable for two wins that included the G1 Doomben Cup where he defeated Lights Of Heaven and Manighar.
Mawingo looked set for a good spring but after his second run back in the Underwood Stakes suffered a virus and had to be turned out to recuperate.
Mawingo is Timeform rated 124 off his Doomben Cup win but he is unlikely to run to that level over this afternoon’s distance of 1400m, the shortest he has raced over in his 13 career starts to date.
Whatever he does today he will improve on as his distances increase. He is one galloper who should have a profitable autumn.
Unbeaten in eight starts Callanish resumes form a spell and easily faces his biggest task to date.
Timeform rated 109+, on face value Callanish’s raw rating is not high enough to trouble the more fancied runners he faces today, however I am expecting him to perform well above that level this afternoon as he has plenty of scope to give more.
The Mick Price-trained has not raced since winning the Seymour Cup over 1600m last October but his unbeaten fresh and 1400m record will carry him a long way.
Callanish is a progressive type who will not disappoint this afternoon.
Sit back and enjoy a great G1 clash.
