Crack three-year-old gelding Manawanui is likely to start one of the shortest Victoria Derby favourites in recent times, however on ratings alone he deserves to be and all being equal should have too much class for his rivals this afternoon.
Photo by Racing and Sports
In a season when Australian racing has enjoyed a stellar group of three-year-olds including Helmet,
Since that victory Manawanui has scored effortlessly in the Stan Fox Stakes at Randwick, pushed Helmet to a head in an epic Caulfield Guineas battle and last Saturday strolled to victory in the AAMI Vase over 2040m at Moonee Valley.
The query not only for Manawanui but for some of his opponents is the gruelling 2500m distance at this stage of their three-year-old careers.
Indeed Manawanui which is Maori for “stout hearted, patient and determined” will have to be all those things this afternoon as he faces his biggest challenge in his short career to date.
There are many who believe the Victoria Derby should be 2000m being so early in the three-year-old season but that is a discussion for another day.
Trainer Ron Leeman has handled Manawanui with great care and he would not be running such a valuable thoroughbred if he did not believe he was up to the task.
Manawanui has been a very versatile youngster in his races, leading throughout to win the Golden Rose then sitting off Helmet in the Guineas and last Saturday ridden well back in the field at his first try at a middle distance.
The Group 2 AAMI Vase over 2040m is one of the major lead up races to the Victoria Derby and Leeman used the race as a litmus test for Manawanui to see if he would settle and finish the race off over a middle distance.
The AAMI Vase has provided 12 Derby winners in the last 20 years so it is easily the most dominant lead up race. Lion Tamer ran second to Rekindled Interest last year before taking the Derby on a rain soaked Flemington track.
According to race rider Glynn Schofield, Manawanui passed the test with flying colours, coming back underneath him perfectly early in the race and not pulling at all. Once asked to make ground approaching the 600m, Manawanui clicked into gear and was soon travelling smoothly outside the lead on the home turn.
Schofield was particularly kind to Manawanui in the straight not punishing the gelding once he had the race in safe keeping, strolling away to win by over two lengths.
It is understandable that Manawanui rated well below his best Timeform figure but it was a case of “mission accomplished” rather than setting a new rating level.
Clearly there are doubts about the extra 500m this afternoon, however he will not be the first Derby winner to have taken the even purely on class alone and that could well be the case again.
On ratings Manawanui has plenty up his sleeve compared to the rest of the field.
The main dangers look to be the Peter Snowden-trained Induna, Niagara and Sabrage.
The Geelong Classic (2200m) on Cup day has not always been the best guide to the Victoria Derby but this year could be different. No horse has completed the Derby double in the last 20 years although Rebel Raider finished third in 2008 ahead of taking the Derby in effortless fashion.
This year the Classic was won in dashing style by rapid improver Induna who was coming off a maiden win at Gosford prior.
The son of Queensland Derby winner Camarena, Induna showed a glimpse of promise three back when third in the Listed Dulcify Handicap over 1900m at Rosehill, then blinkers were added for the Gosford win that seemed to “switch” the gelding on.
The Geelong Classic victory was impressive. The class may not have been there such as in the other Derby lead up races, but if the manner of the win is anything to go by then this fellow is going to relish the 2500m this afternoon.
Under Kerrin McEvoy, Induna settled mid field mid race but was covering ground, in fact being the widest on the home turn.
Once balanced up, Induna quickened and quickly ran down the leaders before running out a comfortable winner by over three lengths, McEvoy almost sitting up in the closing stages.
Induna takes a 111+ Timeform rating into the race and on the Geelong run promises more to come.
Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse who has already won a Victoria Derby with Nothin' Leica Dane saddles up the lightly raced, unexposed Niagara.This colt has just five career starts and four runs from a spell going into this afternoon's feature.
However fitness is unlikely to be an issue for the Waterhouse galloper. An effortless winner by six lengths two back at Canterbury over 1550m, Niagara stepped straight into the big time last start tackling the Group 3 Norman Robinson Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield.In recent times the Norman Robinson has fallen away as the major Derby lead up guide. From 1995 to 2001, the race produced six Derby winners but it is now ten years since the Norman Robinson was used as a lead up by a Derby winner. The last horse to come off the race was 2001 Derby winner Amalfi.
This year that could change as Niagara was definitely the unlucky Norman Robinson runner. From the inside draw, Niagara became held up behind horses approaching the home turn preventing rider Nash Rawiller from getting the horse into a challenging position.
It was not until well into the straight near the 200m mark that Niagara finally got clear to challenge, making up many lengths finishing an eye-catching third beaten just over a length behind Sabrage.
Niagara is another untried past 2000m, but judging by the way he went to the line, he should appreciate the extra trip.
Norman Robinson Stakes winner Sabrage has done nothing wrong in his lead up runs.
Another lightly raced colt who has shown improvement at each run this preparation looks set to run another great race.
Two back he ran on nicely in the Group 2 Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley before taking the Norman Robinson in a stout staying performance.
Sabrage comes into the Derby Timeform rated 115p and it would not surprise to see him continue to improve again this afternoon.
Kiwi galloper Sangster who was found out late in the Norman Robinson is a multiples chance, especially with experienced big race rider Hugh Bowman taking over the reins.
As always, the Victoria Derby is a fascinating race with many unknowns for the young stayers, however Manawanui looks ideally drawn in the middle of the capacity field and on ratings alone is clearly the horse to beat under the conditions.
Enjoy the race.
