The last event on the Pakenham card today contains what on ratings and shown ability plus natural pace does look in wagering terms a lock.
Innocent Gamble even with 58.5kg is too fast and talented for his Restricted 72 opposition and what beats him will win let alone get near him.
Mark Riley trains the son of Elvstroem and Michael Walker, who does perform well with on pacers and front runners, will pilot the speedy gelding.
He cost A$150K at the 2009 Inglis Melbourne Premier Yearling Sale and has a long way to go to recoup but has been kept intact.
I like the fact the blinkers are not on today, as Innocent Gamble has raced best without the eyewear and is a handful anyway during the race.
He is a full brother to Viking Legend, which is more a miler and middle distance type that has already recorded six Group placings, with three of them at G1, two at G2 and one at G3 to go with a Listed win as well.
Innocent Gamble just wants to rip and tear and run, so the 1000m at Pakenham back to this grade looks a readymade way to get him back into a winning mode.
The debut win of Innocent Gamble came as a juvenile in a Listed Blue Diamond Preview over 1000m at Caulfield, with the on pace victory over Marmaa and Pellizotti impressive despite hanging out.
The colt had blinkers applied at his next start in a G3 Blue Diamond Prelude and finished last and was spelled straight after.
He goes best fresh and showed it again upon resuming as a three-year-old in the Listed McKenzie Stakes (1200m), when without blinkers ran a good race for sixth beaten four lengths behind the future G1 winner Anacheeva and G3 winner Bullbars.
Bullbars would also in the autumn finish second to Shamrocker in the G1 Australian Guineas (1600m).
Other future Group winners from the McKenzie Stakes included the fourth finisher Rekindled Interest (won G2 AAMI Vase 2040m) and the last finisher Hollowlea (won G2 Stutt Stakes 1600m).
The only other time Innocent Gamble has resumed saw it finish eighth beaten four lengths in an open three-year-old over 1000m at Caulfield in May this year.
He once again was unblinkered and the first two home have since won or performed with credit, namely General Truce and Spurciffic, while the third horse home in Stratcombe has a decent reputation.
Ratings wise Innocent Gamble is superior here if he reproduces his master figure, which is also his top number over the last twelve months being such a lightly raced galloper.
He recorded this on a heavy track in the G2 Danehill Stakes (1200m) last September, when eighth but beaten just three and a half lengths behind the likes of Soul and Buffering.
In fact dead ground or some cushion is what this entire needs to stretch out properly.
Whatever way you stack it up, the clear cut one to beat is an unblinkered Innocent Gamble going for a soft kill and confidence booster fresh up at Pakenham.
Papercut over 1000m with likely dead ground today is a chance on known ability with the full 4kg claim sure to help his cause.
He has raced in stronger fields than this at his first three resumption runs then last start, when there was some inspired support on the synthetic Geelong track, ran second last.
The gelding ran into a decent looking smart sort in Pago Rock, which led and blew them away for what was the former Perth galloper having his first outing for the unstoppable Peter Moody stable.
Papercut has been racing much better than his four starts this preparation does read and leave him out of your multiples at your peril, as he could sting you.
Cheronbutch with a 2kg claim goes good fresh and/or freshened up and no worries with rain or a cutting out track, as he is a strong swimmer.
His five fresh up outings to date have returned a win and three fourth placings, so he is almost always there or thereabouts for exotic bettors.
The 1000m may concern some but just remember this gelding has demolished up to and including Restricted 82 under 57.5kg before and today will carry 57kg in Restricted 72 grade.
Also his two resumption runs in June and July both returned good efforts, with the fresh outing being fourth beaten a length and a half beaten under 59kg in Restricted 72 class,
His last outing saw a third in Restricted 82 at Sandown-Lakeside behind the Moody galloper Testacana, which has since won three more in a row.
Lady Dom is only lightly tried but she is best fresh on rain-affected going at 1000m, so gets boxes galore ticked here.
Interestingly her maiden win came for rider Michael Walker, who will be steering Innocent Gamble today, and saw her lead and just keep swimming.
Riley only has one other runner entered today at Pakenham and Walker will ride the debutante called Champagne Shisha, an A$75K purchase from the Magic Millions.
It has drawn the carpark but if they run it then consider the filly a possible appetizer to the Innocent Gamble in the last race of the day.
