A congested fixture list for the rest of October begins this weekend, the first of four full rounds of matches to be completed before the end of the month.
Round 11 may be the one that determines the fate of up to three managers. Rodgers at Leicester, Hasenhuttl at Southampton, and Gerard at Villa may all live or die by results this weekend.
BRENTFORD v BRIGHTON: Saturday 15 October 6.00am
Since that famous home win over Man Utd the Bees have won just once in seven, conceding eight in their last two defeats. The goals have also dried up since they put five past Leeds on 3 September.
Brighton slipped out of the top six but were far from disgraced when beaten 1-0 at home to Spurs last weekend. Once in front the visitors put a lot of players behind the ball in a real mark of respect for the Seagulls.
Brighton won both clashes last season. Their away form during this campaign has been solid, highlighted by a win at Old Trafford and a draw at Anfield. Although favourites Brighton are at backable odds and look a nice way to start the weekend.
Prediction: Brighton win
Bet: Brighton to win @ 2.35
LEICESTER v CRYSTAL PALACE: Saturday 15 October 10.30pm.
Leicester scored first for the sixth time in nine games this season yet came away with nothing at Bournemouth last weekend. Defensive frailties again appeared under pressure. At home they are a little more stoic, conceding just one first-half goal and five overall in four games to date.
Palace thoroughly deserved their win over Leeds last time after a torrid run of fixtures. Viera has given this side some self-belief and their table position is not a true indication of their value this season.
The head-to-heads between this pair have an interesting background. Leicester has won the last three meetings at the King Power, and has a win and two draws from the past three at Selhurst. However, Palace won the four encounters prior to that, netting 13 goals along the way.
Tough one to forecast, but I feel there will be a few goals scored.
Prediction: Draw
Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.85
FULHAM v BOURNEMOUTH: Sunday 16 October 1.00am.
Fulham come here with back-to-back defeats, but with asterixis on both results. They played with ten men for 82 minutes against a hungry Newcastle then weren't all that far off a result at West Ham last Sunday. The likely return of Mitrovic from a foot injury is a huge fillip.
Bournemouth under Gary O'Neil continue to impress. He has dragged them back from the ignominy of a 9-0 defeat at Liverpool to sit two points clear of the Reds and a third of the way to safety after just a quarter of the season.
A bit hinges on this clash of last season's Championship quinella. A win will put either side on the cusp of the top six, a loss will see them back in the bottom half. All good things must come to an end, and I think the Cherries climb up the EPL ladder is going to falter today.
Prediction: Fulham win
Bet: Fulham to win and there to be over 2.5 goals in the match @ 2.88.
WOLVES v NOTTINGHAM FOREST: Sunday 16 October 1.00am.
A desperate clash between the two lowest scoring sides in the league.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, three goals in nine games is the makings of a trip to the Championship for Wolves. Their last three results have been 3-0 losses to Man City and Chelsea, and a 2-0 defeat to a resurgent West Ham. Prior to that the form isn't diabolical. They need an opponent like this to regain confidence; away from the City Ground, Forest has scored once and conceded 13 in four matches.
I expect Wolves to grab a vital win here, with new signing Diego Costa to play a significant role.
Prediction: Wolves win
Bet: Wolves to win and there to be over 1.5 goals in the match @ 2.10.
TOTTENHAM v EVERTON: Sunday 16 October 3.30am.
Tottenham sit third on the ladder but are light years behind Man City, and Arsenal to a lesser degree. Their style of play is a little reminiscent of 'boring Arsenal' in the 70s and while fans will be happy with the position in the EPL and in Europe, to the neutral observer they are tedious. Protecting a lead from the 22nd minute at Brighton last week is a case in point.
Everton had been grinding out some impressive results but a couple of uncharacteristic defensive errors caused them to surrender an early lead and ultimately delivered them nothing at home to Man Utd last weekend. Calvert-Lewin's long-awaited reintroduction was a bright note.
Everton has won just one of their last 14 away games against Spurs in all competitions, including a 5-0 mauling in March this year. Spurs should get away with this and maintain pressure on the top two, but it will be tight.
Prediction: Tottenham win
Bet: Tottenham to win and keep Everton goalless @ 2.50.
ASTON VILLA v CHELSEA: Monday 17 October 12.00am.
Villa hover just above the drop zone so this is a crucial game for them. Their 1-1 draw at Forest was a mediocre affair in which neither side seemed capable of building offensively. There are plenty of big names at the club, but Gerrard cannot get them to fire. Stevie G's record since taking over now resembles his predecessor's, so if the club sacked Dean Smith then surely a similar fate awaits the Liverpool legend unless things turn around.
Chelsea under Potter are looking more like they did in the early Tuchel days: disciplined, well-drilled, and patient. They banged on the Wolves door for 47 minutes last weekend but finally the breakthrough came, and they never looked in doubt. A good win on the road in Milan midweek puts them atop Group E in the Champions League so things are looking up, at the moment, at the Bridge.
The Blues have won at four of their last five visits to Villa Park. The home side showed against Man City that they are capable of an upset at home, but it is hard to see them getting anything from this clash.
Prediction: Chelsea win
Bet: Chelsea to win and there to be more than 1.5 goals in the match @ 2.20.
LEEDS v ARSENAL: Monday 17 October 12.00am.
With back-to-back wins over Spurs and Liverpool, Arsenal has stamped itself 'the real deal'. There is a depth of confidence at the Gunners that has not been evident since Wenger's days in charge. Twice Liverpool hit back at the Emirates and twice they responded. There are no weaknesses across the pitch.
Leeds is at the crossroads. Since their stunning 3-0 win over Chelsea on 21 August they have collected just two points from a possible 15. The bright note is that they remain undefeated at Elland Road this campaign.
Arsenal has won three of the four clashes between these heavyweights of English football since Leeds' return to the Premier League in 20/21, with the other ending scoreless. If the Gunners are to pose a serious threat to Man City, they must maintain the momentum in games like this. It will probably be the most entertaining game of the round, with the visitors to win with a bit in hand.
Prediction: Arsenal win
Bet: Arsenal to win and Jesus to score anytime @ 2.50.
MANCHESTER UTD v NEWCASTLE: Monday 17 October 12.00am.
Based on table positions and current form, there could be a case that this usurps Liverpool/Man City as match of the round.
Whilst both sides build some nice results and climb the ladder, there is a sense that Newcastle has more upside than Man Utd. This squad is far from their finished product – when the Saudi oil money starts gushing full bore the Magpies will be looking for top-one finishes, not top-six. However, we are looking at this match and not the future.
Save for their humiliation at the hands of Man City, the Red Devils have been very good since Round Three, particularly at home where they have the prized scalps of Arsenal and Liverpool. Newcastle was playing well but just not getting results then exploded to life in their last couple, netting nine times.
Newcastle hasn't won at Old Trafford since 2013. In fact, Man U has won the last five meetings at the Theatre of Dreams and scored 18 goals along the way. However, this is a different Newcastle side. None of the three results would surprise in what promises to be a classic.
Prediction: Draw
Bets: Draw @ 3.60
SOUTHAMPTON v WEST HAM: Monday 17 October 12.00am.
A loss to West Ham was the death knell for Wolves manager Bruno Lage – does the same fate await Ralph Hasenhuttl? The Saints sit a point above the drop zone and recent losses to Wolves, Villa and Everton do not make good reading.
West Ham keep improving and the new signings are starting to gel with match experience. The Paqueta/Scamacca combination could be something special in seasons to come.
In recent times St Mary's hasn't been a bad destination for the Hammers, with two wins and two draws from their last four visits in the EPL. They haven't conceded there in the last three matches.
As long as they get through the midweek Europa Conference game intact, a third straight win is on the cards for Moyes' boys.
Prediction: West Ham win
Bet: West Ham to win @ 2.40.
LIVERPOOL v MANCHESTER CITY: Monday 17 October 2.30am.
When this season's draw came out, the first thing many people searched for was this fixture. Who would have dreamt it would end up being the clash of 2nd v 10th?
Liverpool gave their supporters some cause for hope when they put six second-half goals past Rangers in the Champions League on Wednesday – importantly Salah found his range with a six-minute hat-trick. But they did a similar thing to Bournemouth in August and have subsequently won just once in four games. Lots of goals against non-existent defence does not spell the end of their troubles.
Man City put Man Utd firmly in their place a fortnight ago just when the Red Devils were gaining momentum. They would love nothing more than to consign their greatest rivals over the past three seasons to the heap in the bottom half of the table after this one.
Results in the fixture have mixed over time, with one constant being that there are generally plenty of goals. Liverpool is 4.00 to win at Anfield – I doubt they have been at the quote at home in the last 10 years.
The Reds will be up for this, but defensively they will struggle to hold out the City onslaught.
Prediction: Manchester City win
Bet: Man City to win and there to be more than 2.5 goals in the match @ 2.35.
