The US Open golf which begins today may feature a Holmes and a Watson, however the trick to identifying the winner of Wednesday's Prince of Wales’s Stakes lies in separating out the key protagonists of this particular mystery.
Unfortunately for The Grey(t) Gatsby, who is set to make his seasonal reappearance in a race he has finished second and fourth in over the past two seasons, this year’s renewal has the potential to be a stronger race and he faces a tall order on his debut for Dermot Weld. The more obvious literary candidate for Royal Ascot honours is Ulysses.
James Joyce fans celebrate 16 June as Bloomsday – named after the novel’s lead character Leopold Bloom – however, Sir Michael Stoute, trainer of the equine Ulysses, didn’t have much to cheer the last time that the Prince of Wales’s was run on that date: his Glass Harmonium could only finish sixth behind the French-trained winner Byword in 2010. But last season’s Gordon Stakes winner Ulysses looks a different story, already rated 6 lb superior to Glass Harmonium, and his performance when overcoming positional difficulties to win the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown last time by a length from Deauville would have been good enough to see him finish third (at worst) in every renewal of the Prince of Wales’s since 2001. With a ‘p’ attached to his rating, and the promise of much more to come from this typically late-developing Freemason Lodge resident, he looks the one to beat at 3/1.
With So Mi Dar ruled out of the race before the six-day entry stage, John Gosden looks likely to rely on Jack Hobbs (though he also has Wings of Desire among the 17 entries). Winner of the 2015 Irish Derby, Jack Hobbs has been limited to just four starts since through injury, however he produced a career-best on his most recent appearance when winning the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan (by two and a quarter lengths from Seventh Heaven) in March, producing a top-class effort in first-time blinkers, and shaping as if there could still be more to come. He is marginally Timeform top-rated, though the feeling is that he might possibly be vulnerable on quick ground over this trip; he also has an entry over 2f further in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes, a race in which Group 1 winners go unpenalised.
Recent Coronation Cup winner Highland Reel also has an entry in the Hardwicke, a race in which he finished a head-second to Dartmouth 12 months ago. Aidan O’Brien’s globetrotting star (has won on three continents) subsequently won the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (1½m) here a month later, before finishing second in both the Juddmonte International at York and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly in October. He then turned the tables on his stablemate Found when winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf at Santa Anita in November, and though below par on his reappearance in Dubai, he bounced back when making all at Epsom (by one and three quarter lengths from Frontiersman) last time. He’s tough, classy, and a huge danger if running here, especially if allowed to dictate from the front.
The up-and-coming Decorated Knight has a different type of profile altogether. He may have quite a bit to find on ratings, but the Roger Charlton-trained colt has slowly but surely made his way through the ranks, really hitting his straps over the past 12 months. He has made more progress this season in winning three of his four starts, including two Group 1s - the Jebel Hatta at Meydan in March and Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh (Deauville third, Johannes Vermeer fifth) in May. He may have got first run there but he won with something in hand and he has certainly earned his place in this deeper top-level contest.
Mutakayyef features in Ben Fearnley’s preview of the Queen Anne, and looks likely to head there rather than here, so Mekhtaal is of more interest. He’s a progressive colt who was a good neck second to Cloth of Stars in the Prix d'Harcourt (1¼m) at Chantilly on his reappearance in April, and was then at least as good when landing his first Group 1 win when taking the five-runner Prix d'Ispahan (9f) on the same course (beat Robin of Navan by neck) last month. The Jean-Claude Rouget-trained colt handles any ground and is not to be underestimated.
The likely fast ground may be more of an issue for Hawkbill, who enjoyed a terrific start to 2016, his wins including the Tercentenary Stakes over this C&D and the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown. He was below form in three subsequent starts last term, but got back on track with a pillar-to-post victory in the Al Rayyan Stakes at Newbury (by two lengths from My Dream Boat) in May, and again ran respectably when four and three quarter lengths third in the Coronation Cup last time.
However, his best form has come on a softer surface, and it would be no surprise were he to run in the 2f longer Hardwicke than take up his entry in this race. Similar comments apply to last year’s winner of this race My Dream Boat, who beat Found by a neck 12 months ago. He has been below form in two starts in 2017, and is best with cut in the ground, so may head elsewhere if the ground stays quick.
An honourable mentions goes to Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Queen’s Trust, who still has more improvement to come and who shaped as if she would come on for the run at York last time, however it is her stablemate Ulysses who looks the best bet in the 2017 Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
Recommended bet:Back Ulysses to win the 2017 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at 3/1
