Ratings Update: Glorious Goodwood

Ben Fearnley runs through the major changes in the Timeform ratings after Glorious Goodwood 2016 and highlights the best performances in the biggest races.

Older horses

As is nearly always the case, the highest performance on Timeform ratings from this year’s Glorious Goodwood came in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes, which marked the second round of battle between the three 2000 Guineas winners Galileo Gold, The Gurkha and Awtaad, who had filled the first three places (in that order) in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.

The Gurkha was second that day but was rated narrowly ahead of Galileo Gold by Timeform after biding his time for too long under Ryan Moore, who was seemingly anticipating a stronger pace. This time though, with lessons learnt from Ascot, The Gurkha sat right behind Galileo Gold and was able to nose ahead half a furlong out. The Gurkha – now Timeform rated 127 – is not quite a top-class miler yet (130+), but he is nearing that level and deserves plenty of credit for what he has done in such a short space of time (beaten on debut in April). He is now rated 1 lb higher than both Galileo Gold and Ribchester (both 126), with the latter taking another step forward from his win in the Jersey Stakes. The QEII will act as the decider for the mile division this season, and a clash with the currently side-lined Solow (129) potentially awaits at Ascot.

The second Group 1 race of Glorious Goodwood, the Nassau Stakes, took less winning than normal with Guineas and Oaks heroine Minding sent off at odds of 1/5 to attempt to land a sixth top-level race from her last seven starts. She did not have to be at her best to beat Queen’s Trust (who improved and is now rated 115) into second, but it was still a taking performance after she once again endured a troubled passage, being hampered and shuffled back early in the straight. Minding is comfortably the best three-year-old filly around and has plenty of options for the rest of the season, including a potential clash with the boys for the first time in the likes of the Irish Champion Stakes.

Three-year-old fillies dominated the market in Friday’s Group 2 King George Stakes, with Marsha and Easton Angel, who had finished first and second in a strong listed race at York earlier in the month in front of the re-opposing Muthmir, expected to go close upped in grade. The first three home at York were closely matched again at Goodwood, filling places four to six, but it was nine-year-old Take Cover who won the race for the second time (adding to his 2014 win). The race appeals as strong form (only a couple of notable absentees among the best five-furlong sprinters around) and Take Cover ran right up to his best (120) to beat Washington DC (119) and Goldream (121) who was conceding race fitness to the principals after missing some intended engagements already this season due to soft ground.

As in 2011 (Hoof It) and 2013 (Rex Imperator), the winner of the feature handicap of the week, the Stewards’ Cup, ran to a higher rating than the winner of the King George, as three-year-old filly Dancing Star (now rated 121p) beat the well-in Orion’s Bow (120) into second by a length and a quarter. Both of the first two home are already at the level required to win pattern sprints, and Dancing Star should not be overlooked however high her sights are set for the rest of the season.

Such is the regard that he is held in by his trainer, Ulysses was aimed at the top after winning a Newbury maiden by eight lengths in May, and after a less than ideal trip in the Derby he got back to winning ways in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes on Wednesday. Ulysses is now rated 116p and was value for more than the half-length winning distance suggests, having been lit up off a modest early gallop. He will reportedly not tackle any further than a mile and a half, meaing the St Leger is not on his agenda, though he may well run in the Great Voltigeur at York next.

With Ribchester’s fast-finishing third in the Sussex Stakes on Wednesday, the Jersey form was looking strong, and the second home in that race, Thikriyaat, was well supported for Friday’s Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes. Thikriyaat had to pick his way through the field at Goodwood and hit the line with running left, and was more superior that the half-length margin of victory over Forge (who had finished third in the Jersey) suggests. Thikriyaat is now rated 117p, and is worth a try in a higher grade still, though it is a little surprising to see both his future entries are over seven furlongs rather than a mile, which he seemed to relish here.

One of Thikriyaat’s entries is in the Hungerford Stakes, also a possible port of call for Lennox winner Dutch Connection, who is now rated 123 after a career-best effort last week. Though the Hugo Palmer-trained pair of Home of The Brave (121) and Gifted Master (116) set up the race nicely for Dutch Connection, who was given a perfect ride by James McDonald, he was the best horse in the race regardless. Dutch Connection is sure to go well again, and a well-run good-ground Prix Maurice de Gheest over a slightly shorter distance could be his ideal Group 1 target.

Goodwood Cup winner Big Orange will also be chasing lucrative international prizes later in the season, with the Melbourne Cup reportedly on his agenda once again after completing the same Princess of Wales’s Stakes/Goodwood Cup double as he did last season. An extremely likable and talented stayer, Big Orange adopted the same front-running tactics that have seen him to such good effect over the last couple of seasons and once again proved very hard to pass. He is rated 123 based on his two-and-a-half-length win over The Grey Gatsby at Newmarket on his penultimate start, and did not have to be at his best at Goodwood to see off Pallasator (117), who himself looks set to put in a bold bid to defend his Doncaster Cup title in September.

Two year olds

The first major two-year-old contest of the week was the Group 2 Vintage Stakes, which has been won by the likes of Olympic Glory, Toormore, Highland Reel and Galileo Gold in recent times, all of whom have gone on to win at Group 1 level. War Decree and Boynton had met in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket, and Boynton had to concede 3 lb to War Decree in the Vintage after that win. With Boynton slightly below his best at Goodwood, War Decree didn’t have to better the form of his close second at Newmarket and remains on 113p, with Boynton eased from 114p to 112p on the back of this defeat. War Decree has a wealth of entries over both six and seven furlongs, and will play a part in some of the top two-year-old races of the autumn.

Yalta’s three-length win in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes is the best performance in that race seen since the turn of the century and he is now rated 114, having proved a revelation dropped down to five furlongs for the first time after disappointing in both the Coventry and the July Stakes. With the speed he possesses it makes sense to campaign him over the minimum trip for the immediate future and a tilt at the Nunthorpe (would need supplementing) is reportedly likely according to connections.

The Group 2 Richmond Stakes had only four runners but still struck as a strong renewal (though perhaps not as strong as the last two won by Shalaa and Ivawood) and Mehmas (115) – perhaps the most likable juvenile seen out so far this season – followed up his July Stakes win under a 3 lb penalty, beating Blue Point (114p) whose greenness in the closing stages was probably the difference between the two. Blue Point may well reverse this form if the two meet in something like the Morny (Blue Point’s potential target according to connections), which may be the most suitable race for Mehmas to have a crack at a Group 1, given that the seven-furlong National Stakes (for which he holds an entry) may contain Caravaggio (123p).