Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are favourites to meet each other in the final of the Western & Southern Open
The Western & Southern Open takes place between August 13-20 just outside of Cincinnati and it is the last big tournament ahead of the US Open, the final Grand Slam of the year.
Formerly known as the Cincinnati Masters, the event has been won by legends of yesteryear such as Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras. More recently, the inimitable Roger Federer won the event no less than seven times (a record) while Andy Murray (2008 and 2011) and Rafael Nadal (2013) have also tasted success here.
The big news ahead of this Masters 1000 Series event is that Novak Djokovic will play his first tournament in America since 2021 when he lands in Cincinnati, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he could face Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz in yet another epic showdown.
Djokovic (15/8) was a beaten finalist five times in Cincinnati, before finally winning the event in 2018. It was a huge moment for the Serb, who become the first player to win all nine ATP Masters 1000 crowns.
He won it again in 2020, beating home hope Milos Raonic in a high-energy final. However, due to his stance on COVID vaccines, Djokovic has not been seen on any US tennis courts for almost two years, so this is a big week for him given it looks like being his only tournament prep before Flush Meadows.
Carlos Alcaraz was knocked out at the quarter-final stage in Toronto last week, however, he has been named as the top seed for the Western & Southern Open, a tournament played on GreenSet hardcourts - a surface that is much faster than clay but not as quick as grass.
Alcaraz (2/1) has been a breath of fresh air, especially now that Federer has left the Tour. The ‘fake drop shot’ he uses was a trick championed by the Swiss genius during his illustrious pomp and the sight of him winning points in such a manner is yet to grow old. The way the Spaniard covers every inch of the court and refuses to give up points in seemingly hopeless situations is also a tonic. It looks like he is half mortal, half cheetah.
Given he wants to solidify his place as World No.1 he may seek victory in Cincinnati to gain a swathe of ranking points after losing to Cameron Norrie in the last eight here in 2022.
The betting market is rather unsurprisingly dominated by Alcaraz and Djokovic, but don’t sleep on Daniil Medvedev (6/1). He played some super solid stuff in Toronto on his way to the quarter-finals, hitting some audacious flat winners from both wings and he tends to come alive at this time of year.
The 2021 US Open winner has a liking for this type of GreenSet terrain and has already won events in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai, Miami and Rome so far this year.
One player I would not be betting on with stolen money in Cincinnati is Stefanos Tsitsipas (16/1). The Greek has endured a torrid season and, unsurprisingly, recently announced that his father Apostolos would no longer be his head coach.
In Toronto, a 36-year-old Gael Monfils turned back the clock by stunning No.4 seed Tsitsipas in straight sets, and the Athens heartthrob looked all at sea. Stefanos will do well to remember whether your sport is played on a track, a field or a court, it’s really played between your ears.
At his best Tsitsipas is a fantastic talent and one hopes he can start getting to the business end of tournaments soon, but it may be 2024 before we see him in the winner’s enclosure again.
Hope springs eternal of course. Borna Coric (100/1, 16/1 to reach the semi-final) was the shock winner here in 2022. Nobody expected Coric – a rag in the betting last year - to get past Nadal in the round of 32 but he did and then took out another Spaniard in Roberto Bautista Agut.
He was too good for Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarters and beat Briton Norrie in the last four. Coric was a betting outsider in the final against Tsitsipas but ended up winning 7-6 6-0. That victory capped a fairytale week given he arrived in Ohio sitting at a lowly 152 on the ATP ladder. In winning, he became the lowest-ranked champion in the tournament’s history.
It remains to be seen whether two-time champ Murray will line up at all this year. The Scot was forced to withdraw from the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers on Thursday evening citing an abdominal injury.
He announced his decision just before his meeting with Jannik Sinner, but he was probably listening to his body after spending nearly five hours on the court across his opening two Toronto wins against Lorenzo Sonego and Max Purcell.
Event organisers at the Lindner Family Tennis Center would love nothing better than a Djokovic-Alcaraz final (10/3 named finalists). Just a few short weeks ago at SW19 Alcaraz won his first Wimbledon title and left Djokovic, the overwhelming betting favourite going in, with his first finals loss at the All-England Club in over a decade.
It was a high-quality final but what was impressive was how the Spaniard kept things together emotionally against Novak, one of the Tour’s mentality monsters. The action was often breathless but some of Djokovic’s decision-making at key moments was about as smart as a sack of wet mince.
It felt like he couldn’t match Alcaraz mentally as well as physically at times, so it will be fascinating to see what adjustments he makes when they meet again. The 23-time Grand Slam champion cannot go on forever, but it does feel now that men’s tennis finally has a legit war between the generations.
Given how they have dominated so far this season it is hard to look beyond an Alcaraz-Djokovic final.
However, if you are looking for an alternative who will go off at a double-figure price then Jannik Sinner (12/1) ticks plenty of boxes. The Italian is just 21 but already up to No.8 in the world. He is an aggressive baseliner who is adding power to his game as he begins to fill out physically.
Crucially, he is not scared of the best in the world either despite his tender years. He has a 3-3 head-to-head record against Alcaraz and actually won their last match – on a US hardcourt – in Miami earlier this year.
He is improving in terms of consistency too and has reached at least the quarter-finals in four out of his last five Masters 1000 tournaments – the punctuation of a straight sets victory over Alex de Minaur in the Toronto final on Sunday.
His coach is the respected Darren Cahill, who guided Lleyton Hewitt to become the youngest player ever ranked world No.1 (a record eventually broken by Alcaraz). Cahill has also coached Murray and Andre Agassi and seems to be bringing the best out of the Italian.
