Betfair Hub: Expert Soccer Tips - EPL Round 4

Love EPL tips? Betfair's English Premier League Analyst provides his EPL tips and analysis for this week's football action. Betting strategies and previews available now.

SOUTHAMPTON VS MANCHESTER UNITED

Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Manchester United for 2 units @ $1.80

Two out of sorts teams meet looking for a much needed three points. Southampton are one of only two sides yet to score a point this season. Manchester United lost their most recent two games before the international break. In good news for Red Devils fans, Manchester United have won 8/8 away matches against promoted teams and have scored first in 8/8 away matches against promoted teams and are unbeaten in their past 15 away games against Southampton, winning 10 of those.

But they haven't scored more than one goal in a game this season. Bruno Fernandes scored the only goal in their last visit to St Mary's. He has also scored in two of his three away games against the Saints. Since Man Utd's 9-0 humiliation of Southampton in February 2021 — which was preceded by a 3-2 win — this fixture hasn't been great for goals. The past four matches have seen just five goals scored in total.

Three of the past four meetings were draws (five of the past eight were drawn in total) and the past four meetings were 0-0, 0-1, 1-1 and 1-1. Not expecting a load of goals but Manchester United really should win this and if they don't, that should be the final nail for Eric Ten Hag.

BRIGHTON VS IPSWICH

Betting Strategy
Back (Both teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.95

Brighton were unbeaten in all three of their home games against promoted sides in the Premier League last season, but this team has a different look about. Far more solid. They were unbeaten in all three of their home games against promoted sides in the Premier League last season.

Both sides are coming off a draw in the match before the international break but before that Brighton had two wins and Ipswich had two losses. After three games, Brighton are in third place and Ipswich 17th. Brighton are one of just three sides yet to taste defeat this season.

Brighton have conceded in seven of their past 10 home league games and each of their past three. They have beaten Everton and Manchester United and drew with a 10 man Arsenal, coming from behind to level.

Ipswich have not had a chance to show what they have yet, as they faced Liverpool and Manchester City first up, then got a point against Fulham. We can bank on them getting one goal here and and it's almost a certainty they will concede, so we can jump on the both teams to score market for this one.

Ipswich are unbeaten in their past three games against Brighton, though they haven't faced off since 2017. In the 2016/17 Championship, both games finished level.

This however is a huge step up in class from those days.

CRYSTAL PALACE VS LEICESTER CITY

Betting Strategy
Back (Both teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.85

The past five meetings between these sides has seen scores of 2-1, 0-0, 1-2, 2-2 and 1-2 but the action is almost always in the second half. Five of the seven goals scored in Crystal Palace's Premier League games this season have come in the second halves of their matches.

In the past eight games between them, five were 0-0 at half time. Crystal Palace have won just one of the eight, however, it was the most recent, the 2-1 win mentioned above.

The results for them against Leicester before that read DLDLDLL so despite Leicester coming up from the Championship, they will fancy their chances here against a Palace side that has two losses and a draw to start their season.

After Roy Hodgson departed Crystal Palace mid season and Oliver Glasner took over, they ended the season in smashing form. However, that made their better players targets for other clubs and Michael Olise and Joachim Andersen moved to Bayern Munich and Fulham. They were huge losses.

The safest play here is back both sides getting on the scoresheet. It may well end 1-1 or one side could kick on and win, but the both teams to score market is the play for this game.

FULHAM VS WEST HAM

Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 1.5 first half goals) Over for 2 units @ $2.60

Although Fulham did the double over West Ham last season, the Hammers had won five of the previous six meetings. Both teams have scored in just three of the past 10 games between the sides and one team has kept a clean sheet in each of the past three.

Last season Fulham won both games, with a 0-2 win at West Ham and a 5-0 here at Craven Cottage. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 7/10 Fulham home matches against middle-third teams and in 8/10 West Ham away matches against middle-third teams. There have been Over 3.5 goals in 6/10 West Ham away matches.

Both sides have played three games this season and the half time scores in the three Fulham games were 1-1, 1-1 and 0-0 and for West Ham, 1-2, 0-0 and 1-1. There is very good value in backing the Over 1.5 first half goals and that's the angle for this game.

These London derbies are often played at a higher tempo than a regular game with the extra pace and urgency in them often creating opportunities.

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LIVERPOOL VS NOTTINGHAM FOREST

Betting Strategy
Back (Both teams to Score) No for 2 units @ $2.00

What a start for new Liverpool manager Arne Slot. He has adjusted superbly to life in the Liverpool dugout, leading the Reds to nine points in his first three games, with seven goals scored and none conceded including a 3-0 mauling of main rival Manchester United. They have also have won their last three games against Nottingham Forest, keeping a clean sheet in the most recent two.

Mo Salah has been directly involved in six of their seven Premier League goals this season, scoring three and assisting three.

Forest have started the season well with one win and two draws and sit in 9th, and when you look at Everton and Southampton almost certain to claim two of the relegation spots, with Ipswich or Wolves likely to get the third, they may feel safe already and be able to enjoy the season this time and play with a bit more freedom.

Liverpool at home will be too strong and the only real value seems to be in Nottingham Forest not scoring. Backing No in the both teams to score market looks the best bet for this game.

MANCHESTER CITY VS BRENTFORD

Betting Strategy
Lay (Over/Under 2.5 goals) Over for 3 units @ $1.37

This looks a good game. City have already blown away Chelsea, Ipswich and West Ham by a 9-2 combined scoreline, powered by the goals of Erling Haaland, who already has seven in just three games, including two hat-tricks. Brentford, meanwhile, are also enjoying a strong start, taking six points from their first three games. They also cause City some problems with the past four games ending 1-0, 3-1, 0-1 and 1-2, so this won't be a blowout home win.

In the six meetings Head to Head since Brentford arrived in the Premier League, only twice did both teams score, and only twice did the game have Over 2.5 goals. The half time scores in the six games were 0-0 (twice) 1-1 (twice) and 1-0 (twice) so it's always a tight contest with three of the six Premier League meetings between these sides being decided by just one goal.

Not a lot of value in the game, but Over 2.5 at $1.37 seems quite low since just two of six meetings went over and Brentford will be playing a tight defence and looking to nick a one goal win. An alternative would be to lay Over 3.5 goals.

ASTON VILLA VS EVERTON

Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Aston Villa for 2 units @ $1.52

I suspect this will finally be the year Everton get relegated. They are 0/3 and this will very likely leave them 0/4. The signs are ominous as Villa are unbeaten in their last five home Premier League matches, running up an 11-1 combined scoreline along the way. When combined with the fact Everton have conceded at least three goals in each of their three Premier League games so far this season, things don't look great.

One positive for Everton is Villa have conceded in their first three games, with 2-1 wins over Leicester and West Ham and in the 0-2 loss to Arsenal. Everton have lost 2-3, 0-4 and 0-3 so conceding 10 goals in three games is relegation form.

Villa have won the first half in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Everton have conceded first in 11/15 away matches against top-half teams. Looking at the Head to Head, Villa are 7-3-0 so Everton are really poor against them. The last meeting however was 0-0. Villa had five straight wins before that with a combined score of 12-1.

It's possible Everton could score, as Villa have conceded in all three games, but I can't see past a home win, so that's the safe play, even at the short odds.

BOURNEMOUTH VS CHELSEA

Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Draw for 1 unit @ $4.10

Bournemouth are one of five sides that are still undefeated this season and they sit on five points with Chelsea on four points after a win and a draw that followed an opening day loss to Manchester City. The three Bournemouth matches ended 3-2, 1-1 and 1-1, so conceding in all three games means we can count on Chelsea scoring here.

Chelsea's three results were a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, then a 6-2 mauling of Wolves which followed the 0-2 City loss. They have won just one of their past four visits to the Vitality Stadium, with two draws. In the previous five games, 10 of the 14 goals scored between these two sides at the Vitality Stadium have come after half-time.

It's impossible to pick Chelsea to win here as they are rebuilding again under yet another manager, and the new signings don't seem to have changed the situation at all. After winning back-to-back games in 2019, Bournemouth are now five matches without a win against Chelsea. The Blues beat Bournemouth 2-1 on the final day of last season to secure European football, but I see two things happening here. Both teams should score and it should end in a draw.
Back (Both teams to Score) Yes for 2 units @ $1.52

Bournemouth are one of five sides that are still undefeated this season and they sit on five points with Chelsea on four points after a win and a draw that followed an opening day loss to Manchester City. The three Bournemouth matches ended 3-2, 1-1 and 1-1, so conceding in all three games means we can count on Chelsea scoring here.

Chelsea's three results were a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, then a 6-2 mauling of Wolves which followed the 0-2 City loss. They have won just one of their past four visits to the Vitality Stadium, with two draws. In the previous five games, 10 of the 14 goals scored between these two sides at the Vitality Stadium have come after half-time.

It's impossible to pick Chelsea to win here as they are rebuilding again under yet another manager, and the new signings don't seem to have changed the situation at all. After winning back-to-back games in 2019, Bournemouth are now five matches without a win against Chelsea. The Blues beat Bournemouth 2-1 on the final day of last season to secure European football, but I see two things happening here. Both teams should score and it should end in a draw.

TOTTENHAM VS ARSENAL

Betting Strategy
Back (Over/Under 3.5 goals) for 2 units @ $2.50

The biggest game of the weekend by far. This is the acid test for Arsenal. Already trailing Manchester City by two points, they simply can't afford to drop points here to an average Tottenham side. This will be a match played at a frantic pace, as under Ange Postecoglou they only play one way, all out attack, just as he did at Celtic. This will play right into the hands of Arsenal and it should be a comfortable win, and if they were to lose or draw this, then I can't see them mounting a serious title challenge.

Spurs have won just one of the past six meetings with results of 2-3. 2-2, 0-2, 1-3, 3-0, 1-3 and 1-2. With 25 goals in those seven games, we can expect the same again. All of the past 10 games had a first half goal, and 8/10 had a second half goal. Eight of them went Over 2.5 goals and history shows the Over 2.5 in this clash should be about $1.25. It is $1.63 here and that looks a real bargain.

The three Spurs games this season ended 1-2, 4-0 and 1-1, and for Arsenal 1-1, 2-0 and 2-0, so they have only conceded one goal. Arsenal have only kept two clean sheets against Spurs since 2014, covering 20 games. One clean sheet was in November 2017, and the other in January 2023. The Over 2.5 goals landed 11 times in those 20 games, yet eight of them came in the last 10 games, showing how things have changed since the Arsene Wenger days.

Despite winning five of their past seven games against Tottenham, Arsenal have only kept one clean sheet so we will see goals here. I am quite confident we will see four at least, as Arsenal have scored at least three goals in three of their past six games against Tottenham, including last time out here at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

In huge news for the game, Declan Rice will be missing after his red card against Brighton. That's a massive boost for Spurs. Raheem Sterling may debut for his new club and Arsenal will hope to have Kieran Tierney and Gabriel Jesus available for this game.

I am looking at three options. An Arsenal win, or the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals markets. Even the both teams to score market at $1.60 for yes looks great. I will just stick with the Over 3.5 here.

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WOLVERHAMPTON VS NEWCASTLE

Betting Strategy
Back (Match Odds) Newcastle for 2 units @ $2.20

Which Newcastle will turn up for this? They are hot and cold and very hard to predict right now. Wolves have conceded first in 9/13 home matches against top-six teams while Newcastle have won 12/19 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Wolves have won just one of the past 10 meetings, which was in 2022. Before that were four straight draws, and after that win, there were three losses and two draws. The past three games were 0-3, 2-2 and 1-2. Eight of the past 10 meetings saw both teams score. Five of the 10 were 1-1.

Wolves are going to be in a relegation fight this season and Newcastle should have far too much firepower for them. Wolves have lost each of their two games against team's in last season's top seven by an 8-2 combined scoreline and Newcastle have enjoyed a solid start to this season. They beat Spurs, drew with Bournemouth and beat Southampton 1-0 on opening day. This should make it three wins from four.

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EPL TIPS

The English Premier League (EPL) is the number one football competition in England. It consists of the 20 best teams playing 38 home and away games with the season running from August through to May. Teams are awarded 3-points for a win, 1-point for a draw and no points for a loss with the winner of the league title being the team with the most points at the end of the season. With the best club football competition in the world fast approaching, Betfair wants to help you find a winner by providing expert English Premier League tips on the latest fixtures plus futures markets.

The EPL operates on a promotion and relegation system with the English Football League (EFL). The top-3 teams at the end of the EFL season are promoted to the EPL and the bottom-3 in the table are relegated to the EFL. The current list of teams in the EPL for the 2023/24 season are: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Bournemouth, Burnley, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Luton Town, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United, Tottenham Hotspur, West Ham and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Sign up to Betfair now to keep up to date with the latest EPL markets on Australia's largest betting exchange, and follow along on the Betfair Hub for our expert EPL tips, strategies and analysis.

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EPL Title:

2023/24: Manchester City

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2017/18: Manchester City