England kick off their Euro 2024 qualifying against Italy on Thursday night - and Gareth Southgate’s troops are backable favourites against the European champions.
Key stats
Both teams have scored in five of the last seven encounters
Italy lost 5-2 to Germany in a friendly in June 2022
Four of the last five meetings between these teams have finished level after 90 minutes
England have only lost one of their 27 major tournament qualifiers under Gareth Southgate
Verdict
The last four meetings between these old rivals have ended all square after 90 minutes, including the Euro 2020 final at Wembley, which Italy won on penalties.
That game must be one in which Southgate looks back on with regret. He will never admit it, but had he been braver with his team selection and added in another tracking player or had Jude Bellingham been anywhere near the level he is now, then the Three Lions would have been crowned European champions.
That is history, though, and Italy failed to qualify for the World Cup on the back of that.
England of course marched to Qatar, but found France an immovable object in the quarter-final in Al Khor.
That was England’s last outing and don’t expect too many changes from that XI with the dependable Harry Maguire, John Stones and Harry Kane providing England’s backbone.
Southgate does have options although the irrepressible Marcus Rashford is missing and Raheem Sterling is also out. The likes of Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka and Jack Grealish are not bad replacements.
Jude Bellingham will offer drive from midfield against an Italy side struggling for such options and it’s those options which sees the Three Lions go into the game as 6/4 favourites.
The return of Federico Chiesa will be a welcome boost, but Ciro Immobile misses out and Roberto Mancini’s forward line looks to lack experience and quality.
We can expect Maguire, who has had two recent run-outs against Real Betis and Fulham, and Stones to keep Italy’s fledgling attack quiet, while at the other end, England will fancy their chances of scoring after netting in five of their last seven with the Azzurri.
The last two meetings in the Nations League, however, saw Italy keep two clean sheets. The omitted Giacomo Raspadori’s stunning strike separated the sides in Milan in September as a strong England side were relegated from their Nations League group after a 1-0 defeat.
Southgate, though, should see this opening qualifier as a winnable game and if, as expected, England start on the front foot, it could be a straight-forward evening for the Three Lions.
The omission of Serie A-based players Fikayo Tomori and Tammy Abraham tells you all you need to know about Southgate’s regard for Italian football.
And an attacking approach should reward England, with their skilful attacking players creating problems for an ageing Italian defence, which Austria dismantled in November.
Suggested bets
England to win to nil
Italy vs England BTTS, no
Harry Kane to score anytime
