The Cup Is A Numbers Game

Racing editor Chris Scholtz assesses this year's Melbourne Cup field.

The Melbourne Cup is really nothing more than a numbers game.

It is the most intriguing and competitive international handicap race in the turf world, and much of that intrigue lies in the numbers that are connected to almost every aspect of its make up.

It may be a simplistic summation of this $6 million phenomenon that captures the imagination of a vast global audience, but any form analysis of the Cup is really little more than an exercise in weights and measures.

But because it is a handicap doing the numbers on the Cup remains just as challenging now as it was long before ratings and computers became the common tools of educated race assessment.

If the Melbourne Cup was a weight-for-age event – as some pundits believe it should be - the challenge in assessing and handicapping/rating the runners would evaporate for countless horse players around the globe.

With it would go the mystery and expectation that makes the Melbourne Cup such a great betting race. Heaven forbid!

But that is a debate for another day. Right now, on the eve of certainly the classiest edition of the Melbourne Cup in its 152-year history, there are 24 horses theoretically weighted with an equal chance of taking home the big prize.

Sure, there has been a compression of the weight scale over the last 20 years purposely designed to mould the race into an international quality handicap.

But the challenge to 'work the numbers' in search of the winner – and, most importantly in this era of massive betting pools, identifying those long priced inclusions for exotic bets - remains as daunting as it is satisfying for those serious about their handicapping and punting.

Whatever way you look at this year's Melbourne Cup the numbers game begins and ends with Dunaden and [/n]Americain[/n], the two past winners who head the field under 59kg and 58kg.

They are unquestionably superior 3200m stayers and boast the form and qualifications to warrant their domination of the pre-post betting.

Yet while the market place says they are the pair to beat, they will be readily dismissed by a vast number of punters because the handicap conditions combined with the race's long history bring so many factors into play for consideration.

On face value it is easy to mark the French stars as "lay plays" because of their big weights.

Most will look at modern day Cup history and quickly realize how difficult it will be for either to win under their handicaps, especially Dunaden after he incurred an extra 1kg penalty for his impressive Caulfield Cup win under 58kg.

In the past 32 years some 27 horses have started in the Melbourne Cup with 58kg or more but only one – the remarkable three-time winner Makybe Diva in 2005 - has been successful. Notably that win was over a field lacking the deep well of international form we have to deal with this year.

The case against Dunaden mounts when you find that 16 horses in the past 40 years have carried 59kg or more in the Melbourne Cup and none have won. The highest weight carried to success since 1972 was 58.5kg by Think Big in 1975.

Further to that damning statistic, and one that also goes against Americain, is that only four horses in the past 42 years since metrics were introduced in 1972 have won the Melbourne Cup with more than 56kg.

And more telling is the stat that only three of the 21 starters to carry 56kg or more in the Cup since 2000 (with the exception of Makybe Diva) have been placed.

To put this in perspective Dunaden will have to surpass the Melbourne Cup performances of Australian champions Kingston Town, Gunsynd and Super Impose as well as the Irish stars Vintage Crop and Vinnie Roe if he is to win the Melbourne Cup for a second time.

Kingston Town carried 59kg when an unlucky second in 1982; 1993 winner Vintage Crop was third in 1995 with 59kg; Gunsynd was third under 60.5kg in 1972 (a tremendous effort for a horse who will never be remembered as a true 3200m performer); and Vinnie Roe was second with 58kg in 2004, giving 2.5kg to Makybe Diva.

They are the only horses to finish in the Cup placings in the last 40 years with weights comparative to the handicaps to be carried this year by Dunaden and Americain.

Further historical analysis adds that Vintage Crop was seventh under 60kg in 1994; Super Impose was fourth under 60kg in 1991 and Vinnie Roe was fourth under 59kg in 2002 and eighth with 58kg in 2005. Doriemus, Central Park and Persian Punch were placed with 57.5kg between 1997 and 2001.

Going deeper, as the Melbourne Cup has developed into a high class international attraction the quantity and quality of overseas participation has increased consistently to the extent that eight overseas trained horses have figured in the first three placings in the last five years.

However none of those eight international placegetters carried more than 54.5kg, perhaps the most telling numerical stat against Dunaden and Americain in their bid to win for a second time on Tuesday.

The raw figures from the past two years are that Americain carried 54.5kg when he won in 2010 and 58kg last year when fourth behind Dunaden (54.5kg) after a tough run.

In the recent Caulfield Cup they both carried 58kg when Dunaden steamed home with Americain finishing off strongly for fourth, 1.5 lengths away, after again covering unnecessary extra ground.

The simple math is Americain, better drawn and with a significant riding change to Damien Oliver, is weighted to meet Dunaden 4.5kg better for a difference of 1.5 lengths in the Cup last year and is 1kg better off from their recent clash in the Caulfield Cup, all good enough to justify why he is currently favourite over an easing Dunaden.

However In Dunaden's corner is the impossible to ignore Melbourne Cup record of horses coming through the Caulfield Cup.

In the past 21 years, 11 Melbourne Cup winners and 16 placegetters started in the Caulfield Cup of the same year. They include four horses who won the Caulfield Cup before completing the double at Flemington and each of the quartet carried greater weight penalties than the seemingly lenient 1kg awarded Dunaden for his win this year.

Conversely the record of Caulfield Cup winners being penalised to carry more than 58kg since 1980 is poor with all three in that category well beaten.

It is also worth noting that of the other seven winners to come from the Caulfield Cup since 1990 only Viewed (10th in 2008) finished worse than sixth at Caulfield.

However the task confronting Dunaden to win a second Melbourne Cup remains a massive historical hurdle. Apart from Makybe Diva's amazing feat of winning three successive Melbourne Cups, only three other horses in 152 years – Archer (1861/62), Rain Lover (1968/69) and Think Big (1974/75) – were able to record successive victories.

In Americain's case he is striving to join Peter Pan (1932/34) as the only double winner two years apart.

Delving further into the handicaps it is obvious that Red Cadeaux, beaten a mere centimetre by Dunaden last year, is again a serious threat as he rises only 2kg to 55.5kg and will be meeting his arch rival 2.5kg better.

Red Cadeaux is also a significant 3.5kg better off from when he met Dunaden on level terms of 57kg in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes at Ascot in the UK in June when only three quarters of a length separated them.

It is just one of many examples indicating that the best profile for a European stayer in the Melbourne Cup is one that has seen the horse perform with distinction at Group level under higher set weight conditions in the UK, Ireland, France and Germany lining up at Flemington with significantly less weight under the handicap conditions.

When Timeform ratings assessments are applied across the field, it becomes clear where the true value is to be found in this year's Cup field – and it certainly isn't with the favourites.

The standouts are Mount Athos (54kg) and Fiorente (53.5kg)

The Luca Cumani-trained Mount Athos won a high rating Listed race under 63.5kg in July and followed up with a G3 win by more than three lengths under 59kg in August while Fiorente tumbles 4.5kg from a G2 win at Newmarket in July under 58kg when he beat subsequent G1 winner Joshua Tree (58kg) and Red Cadeaux (59kg) over 2414m.

Cumani has had five Melbourne Cup starters for two seconds with Bauer and Purple Moon and it is notable that Mount Athos lands here with much a higher Timeform rating than those horses. His related form lines also stand excellent comparison with the higher profile topweights.

Cumani will also start My Quest For Peace, a worthy back up to the strongly fancied Mount Athos with the benefit of a local start when fifth in the Caulfield Cup, a program very much regarded as a major advantage for the overseas horses going into the Melbourne Cup.

Again he is another boasting excellent form lines as he won the G2 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood in August under 57kg beating noted Group winner Dandino and subsequent Geelong Cup winner Gatewood at level weights.

Dandino subsequently won a G3 race and went on to be narrowly beaten at G1 level by Joshua Tree in the Canadian International at Woodbine.

My Quest For Peace then made light of 62.5kg with another easy Listed win at Goodwood prior to his Caulfield Cup fifth when he raced close up on a strong pace from the start and did best of all the leading division to be beaten only 1.5 lengths by Dunaden.

He is again drawn to enjoy a soft passage behind the leaders from the rails gate and is another to fit the desired weight profile as he carries only 53.5kg.

Once upon a time it was the New Zealanders who made an art form of beating the Melbourne Cup handicapper with horses often kept in cotton wool for two years or more.

Now NZ-trained stayers rarely make the Melbourne Cup field yet that wily Kiwi cunning can still be found in many astute European trainers, none more than the Irish wizard Dermot Weld.

Weld is a two-time Cup winner (Vintage Crop/Media Puzzle) and is back this year with Galileo's Choice, a horse with similar background to his past winners by having mixed flat racing with a jumping career.

Just four runs back Galileo's Choice won a hurdle race at Fairyhouse in Ireland but it his last two flat starts at Leopardstown that have yielded impressive wins carrying 61kg, the latest beating a subsequent G1 St Leger placegetter.

They are efforts that give him a rating to be highly competitive in this field with his weight drop to 53.5kg.

It would appear that Galileo's Choice favours softer ground so the Melbourne forecast for showers on Monday and Tuesday may come at the right time.

After last year's Cup result, when the internationals swept the locals away by filling the first seven placings and nine of the top 10, it must be asked if there is an Australian-trained contender capable of turning back the overseas tide.

Perhaps Maluckyday, based on his second to Americain two years ago, and Light Of Heaven after she held her ground well for third when surrounded by the imports in the Caulfield Cup, have the ratings potential to be competitive.

However they still needing to improve their base figures to match the scope for improvement promised by the favourably weighted imports.

Of the others only Green Moon, Kelinni, Mourayan and at a stretch Niwot could be entertained as top six prospects. For each of these 'locals' there are other imports such as Cavalryman and Winchester with equally strong claims.

In summary my top order for the 2013 Melbourne Cup are all internationals.

I trust the numbers don't lie - but in a Melbourne Cup it is always wise to expect the unexpected!

BMOUNT ATHOS 1; RED CADEAUX 2; AMERICAIN 3; GALILEO'S CHOICE 4; DUNADEN 5; FIORENTE 6; MY QUEST FOR PEACE 7.