Two crucial factors are conspiring against Wollongong hopeful Rolling Pin in Wednesday's Group 3 Cameron Handicap.
Photo by Racing and Sports
There's a lack of genuine speed in the race, and the rain which was predicted to soften the Newcastle track this week hasn't quite turned up.
It's left part-owner Matthew Sandblom feeling like the planets haven't quite aligned for the Gwenda Markwell-trained son of Pins.
I don't think there's much pace in the race, so Rolling Pin's probably got us much pace as anyone,” Sandblom said.
We're trying to hopefully get into a race where he can follow the pace rather than be right on the pace. The way the field is on Wednesday he'll have to be up near the pace again.
We were hoping those rain predictions for tomorrow were going to come true but it doesn't look like there's a lot of rain on the way.
“He's felt the track the last couple of starts. The better quality races I think he needs the sting out of the track to match it with the better horses.”
The five-year-old is nominated for next month's Group 1 Epsom Handicap (1600m) at Randwick, but Sandblom conceded his horse wouldn't follow that path unless some springtime rain started falling on Sydney.
Rolling Pin has struck firm tracks in all three starts this campaign, and hasn't been able to replicate the form he discovered in a career-defining campaign over the summer.
He's still performed soundly enough though in some handy company, most recently running a three-length ninth in the Group 3 Tramway Handicap (1400m) behind one of tomorrow's adversaries in Tagus.
And while Sandblom knows Tagus will be tough to beat again, he believes Gai Waterhouse duo Kontiki Park and Western Symbol will have a huge say in how the race pans out.
“Gai's two horses are going to be hard because they'll be up on the pace or not too far off,” Sandblom said.
“John O'Shea's [Lightinthenite] is unbeaten first-up so you'd expect it to go well.
“None of these Group races are easy.”
