The last six Blue Diamond winners to head north were beaten at their first Sydney start, leading TAB Sportsbet to gamble against Samaready at Rosehill.
A leading wagering firm has ignored sustained Golden Slipper backing for Samaready to declare the unbeaten filly a first-up Sydney risk at Rosehill on Saturday.
Based on a trend of Blue Diamond Stakes winners failing at their first start in the opposite direction, TAB Sportsbet's Glenn Munsie said he was ready to gamble against Samaready in the Reisling Stakes.
The last six Blue Diamond winners to head north have been beaten at their first Sydney start.
The run of outs include the Peter Snowden-trained Sepoy whose unbeaten sequence came to an end as $1.18 favourite on a wet track at the corresponding meeting last year.
"Recent history hasn't been kind to Melbourne two-year-olds having their first Sydney start and Samaready is my lay of the day for that reason," Munsie said.
"She has drawn five of a field of eight and she doesn't have that much early speed so I can see her giving two very good fillies (Snitzerland and Hussousa) a start."
Samaready remains a clear-cut Reisling favourite at $1.60 and Munsie said early punters were ignoring the statistics.
"The biggest bet we've taken on her has been ten thousand dollars and she accounts for eighty per cent of our hold on the race," he said.
In spite of his concerns over Samaready's chances on Saturday, Munsie said Golden Slipper support for the Mick Price-trained filly had to be respected.
Since details of her trackwork in the Sydney direction have filtered through, Samaready has been backed from $4.80 to $3.20 to win the Golden Slipper.
"It's been a huge go in the past week," Munsie said.
"From the Slipper viewpoint, the experience horses gain from their first start the Sydney way is usually enormous."
Snowden, who will saddle up Meidung and Benedictus in the Reisling, also believes Samaready might not have things all her own way.
Referring to Sepoy's defeat last year, Snowden said: "He was always going to be vulnerable that day.
"But I knew that race (the Todman Stakes) would bring him on, which it did.
"I would think Samaready would be pretty much in the same boat.
"She will run well on Saturday but I would think they have left a bit there to improve on for next start.
"It's very hard for two-year-olds. As quick as they come up they can go off.
"So it's all about timing and getting them right on the day."
For Darley's colt Epaulette, the Todman Stakes will be about consolidating his place in the Golden Slipper field.
"It was important for him to win the Black Opal two weeks ago," Snowden said.
"This week it is not so important but you still want to see him run really well and then hopefully he can peak again."
Epaulette is a $6 Todman chance with the Gai Waterhouse-trained Pierro the $1.85 favourite.
At $17 in latest Golden Slipper betting, the half-brother to Caulfield Guineas winner Helmet is considered Darley's best chance in the world's richest two-year-old race.
