Gai's Fortress of Newcastle Cups

There have been just over 100 Newcastle Cups and so many close contests.

There is usually plenty of value for the punters to get stuck into as well. Kensei was beaten in this before winning the Melbourne Cup six weeks later while Gurner's Lane did the double as did Hyperno, albeit two years later. Look at the Cups since 2004.

• 2005 – (DEAD HEAT) CARAEL BOY 8g (Free Flyer x Song of Spring) ($21) & HIGH CEE 4g (Marju x Sweet Vienna) ($4.25)

Jockey: Larry Cassidy & Blake Shinn, Trainer: Bob Milligan & Bart Cummings

Barrier: 9 & 7, Weight: 56.0kg & 52.0kg

Gross Time: 2:25.58, 600m Sectional: 34.57

Margin: D/H, Track: Good, Starters: 12

3rd: Cross Bar (52.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 114/110

This was a fairly open race – one could say many chances. In the end there were more than one winners. Firstly Carael Boy had been considered more a miler at best. Bob Milligan gradually came to the conclusion as he got older he was looking more like a stayer. A Wyong Cup win and a placing in town was his lead up. For High Cee he'd run well in a Rosehill Guineas & AJC Derby so the trip was not foreign. Bart had him perfectly prepping for a mile and a half event. Blake Shinn hadn't ridden much if at all for Cummings but three years later the combination/colours would provide the jock with his career highlight. Cassidy took Carael Boy to the lead and Shinn was right behind. In the straight they challenged each other and bumped. With a dead heat any incident was important but the decision stayed on the track.

• 2006 – BIKKIE TIN BLUES 8g (Secret Savings x Ritual Music) ($2.50 fav)

Jockey: Brad Pengelly, Trainer: Brian Smith

Barrier: 3, Weight: 54.0kg

Gross Time: 2:21.13, 600m Sectional: 35.66

Margin: 1L, Track: Good, Starters: 16

2nd: Exinite (52.0kg), 3rd: Respect (52.5kg)

Timeform Rating: 106

The 100th running of the Cup was one of the most remarkable in terms of the story lines with the winner. Trainer Brian Smith had had success around the world as the mentor of the great Balmerino as well as Circles of Gold (Oaks winner and mum of Elvstroem/Haradasun). Now in Brisbane, he came across this ageing bugger. He won his previous five runs by an aggregate margin of over 22L. One day Alan Thomas thought he'd seen the rebirth of Kingston Town. To be fair after a long campaign he may have been almost over the top by the time the Cup came around but it was better company he was meeting. He had a perfect run in transit and the jock was suspended but he pulled him wide and he came up the centre of Broadmeadow racecourse to win by a length. He was gone a long way out in the Metrop.

• 2007 – ABANDONED DUE TO EI

• 2008 – BIANCA 5m (Painted Black x Blanche Amelia) ($5 fav)

Jockey: Nash Rawiller, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 1, Weight: 56.5kg

Gross Time: 2:23.45, 600m Sectional: 34.18

Margin: 1.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 12

2nd: Keepin' The Dream (53.0kg), 3rd: County Tyrone (56.5kg)

Timeform Rating: 111

Bianca was a tough mare. A 15 run campaign will show just how robust she was. She came good at Ipswich taking the Cup there in June and Gai kept her going while in form. A re-freshen with some 1500m runs was then followed by a delayed Wyong Cup win on an absolute quagmire. By the time she got to Newcastle, she ran favourite but it was 4-1 the field. Nash Rawiller rode the perfect race but gate one helped. He just sat there on her tagging the lead and pulled around Keepin' The Dream's heels at the 400 who himself had taken over at the mile. In the end she won fairly easily. She had one more run when hitting the front in the Metrop only to be run down by the grey flash Newport.

• 2009 – STREETFIGHTER 6g (Bianconi x Super Rhythm) ($9)

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy, Trainer: Terry Mathrick

Barrier: 4, Weight: 54.0kg

Gross Time: 2:26.99, 600m Sectional: 34.58

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good, Starters: 9

2nd: Lodge The Deeds (55.0kg), 3rd: Enzedex Eagle (55.5kg)

Timeform Rating: 103

Streetfighter was a good honest Victorian horse who came north to find some staying races and some dry tracks. In doing so he scored consecutive wins at Randwick so connections must have thought let's give a race like the Newcastle Cup a show. In doing so they got one of the best staying riders in the country up with K McEvoy not needed by his employer in that race. He worked over and got the lead setting up quick a slow tempo in the small field. With other rivals nearby McEvoy didn't want to make it easy and so started to roll as he rides leaders well in these events. Lodge The Deeds had been nosed out in the Wyong Cup and ranged up inside the distance. They came away but surely not again. McEvoy got every inch out of the leader and fought back to deny the other horse a win. Running in harder races thereafter Streetfighter couldn't reproduce such performances.

• 2010 – STRATOFORTRESS 6g (Stravinsky x Instantly) ($5)

Jockey: Peter Robl, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 1, Weight: 53.0kg

Gross Time: 2:22.22, 600m Sectional: 36.34

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 13

2nd: Snow Alert (56.5kg), 3rd: Scottish Border (53.0kg)

Timeform Rating: 109

Gai Waterhouse has an extraordinary record in this event. She has won it on numerous occasions following on from TJ's strength here. But this win was one for her bone and muscle training. Stratofortress was a decent sort of country and midweek welter horse when trained elsewhere. But 2000m was about as far as he had wanted. He was brought along this prep including a win at Rosehill over 1500m then placing at the same venue. But she backed him up five days later and over 2300m. From the perfect inside draw he camped on the leaders, took the split at the top of the straight and roared away under Robl. It was made much easier on that back up when dropping 7.5kg. Tried a comeback in the Festival in December and while second didn't race again after that in 2010.

RACE PREVIEW

o Gai has a great record in the race.

o Fairly good race for favourites.

o Mares have had a poor record in the Cup.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner – 6yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner – 54.5kg

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <1-4> - 7 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner – $80

o Breakdown of winners – 5 geldings, 2 mares & 2 entires

o Last 10 Years Wyong Cup / Newcastle Cup double – Bianca ('08), Carael Boy ('05)

o Last 10 Years Ipswich Cup / Newcastle Cup double – Bianca ('08)

o Last 10 Years Winter Stks / Newcastle Cup double – Carael Boy ('05)

SUMMARY & SELECTIONS

Now this is a competitive Newcastle Cup. Plenty come in with good form with the Wyong Cup playing a big role but also interstate runners and other recent metro winners.

A field of this size should generate some pace as there is just over 300m to the post the first time.

Runners like Viking Legend, Essence Of Success, Tamanu Park and others can provide what is needed for the speed until they settle down.

With that in mind might back one who goes back and searches for inside runs.

Green Moon is one of those imports for the Robert Hickmott/Lloyd Williams team who have turned the corner recently.

He was heavily backed against the impressive December Draw last time and worked home nicely for second. That form by the weekend might end up very special if that winner takes the Naturalism Stks.

Sure he will need luck but horses being on the rail saving ground or even leading have been successful in the Cup and while he won't lead you'd think, he must go for luck from the gate.

Last year fourth up at this trip he was fifth in a King Edward.

With Wyong Cup form often showing up for this event it is hard not to like the way The Verminator got away from them late there. He had a perfect trail into the race but still took advantage of it.

All his recent runs have rated similarly so his consistency is without question. Only slight, slight question is the trip if its fast run but he is going well.

A value runner might be Home On A Wing. Had absolutely no luck at Rosehill after being impressive at Randwick.

On the limit from a lovely gate he might be put to sleep by McEvoy who has won this race before and his one go at the trip was sixth in the AJC Derby behind Shoot Out.

Selection: (8) GREEN MOON

Hardest to Beat: (4) THE VERMINATOR

Best Roughie: (13) HOME ON A WING