Back to Flemington for a deep card this Saturday with race seven on the card looking a strong precursor to the Winter Championship Final on the near horizon.
The Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig-trained Sovereign Nation appeals as a key runner and the obvious starting point when looking at the race.
Sovereign Nation is second up after a winning return at the course and distance three weeks ago when he was able to take advantage of a race that fell perfectly for him on the day.
There is no doubt that he had the favours winning first up, and there is nothing about his rating there that says that he simply follows up and wins again this Saturday, but what makes him appealing is the upside that he has on that performance.
That was Sovereign Nation's first run as a gelding and while not at any level that he hasn't been at in the past he knuckled down and did the job when asked. Converting his talent to wins has not been a strength of Sovereign Nation in the past but there looks a big chance that he can now do that, particularly campaigning at this time of year.
As a three-year-old Sovereign Nation won a Stutt and ran fourth in a Caulfield Guineas, earning himself a Timeform rating of 113. He peaked at 109 last campaign. A rating of 105 winning first up says that those peaks are well in the sights of Sovereign Nation this time in.
For an each way play we look to the staying race on the card which has had the heart ripped out of it by the early scratchings of Grand Dreamer and De Little Engine.
That leaves Goathland a very warm favourite as he looks to emulate his Flemington win at the same point of his latest campaign. He has a fair chance of doing that but one away from the top of the market that has a genuine winning hope is Falago and we are keen to keep him on side.
He's been very slowly coming to the boil this prep and stepping up to 2500m here could be just what he needs to reach his top. He comes off a fast Casterton Cup where he found the line without much luck. It was a likeable run and a good springboard for him back to the Flemington 2500m where he ran a pair of good seconds at this time last year - in fact one of them was in this very race.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet Of The Day: Race 7 #6 Sovereign Nation @ $5.00
Each Way Play: Race 4 #3 Falago @$13.00
