The rails rolls out and the punters zone in. On the speed is the place to be at the Valley tomorrow.
The Moonee Valley rail was in the true position last time we raced there (August 1) and horses leading at the 400m mark (not a bad place to be just a couple of furlongs from home) beat home 65.5% of their rivals.
On May 30 the rail was true and that same group of horses, on-pace at the right time, beat home 62.6% of their rivals.
What we could draw from that is that horses on-speed beat home more than half their rivals - which could be considered par - and therefore it is advantageous to be leading at the 400m mark; and we wouldn't be wrong. However, when we look at these figures next to the same numbers taken when the rail goes out, it points to it being less of an advantage when the rail is true.
The rail tomorrow is out four metres. The last time the rail was at four metres was back in February when leaders beat home 88.8% of their rivals. The meeting prior to that with the rail at four they beat home 78%.
This points to a correlation between the rail and being on speed. Out to the extreme, plus seven metres, leaders have beaten home 84.6% and 79% of rivals at the last two meetings under those conditions respectively.
Check out Moonee Valley course stats here
Of course there is also a strong correlation between the fastest horse and the winner, and so our work here is hardly done, but we go in knowing where we would prefer to be; on speed.
We can put this to the test from the very top tomorrow. Race one, number one, Strykum.
The fastest horse in the race on what we have seen to this point (went too fast last time we saw her!) and a fairly likely leader from an inside barrier.
She's the weight horse, the time horse, and the SP horse after starting evens in a strong form race in Adelaide last time which was won by a smart customer in Prince Of Brooklyn.
With plenty in her favour we think that she should be close to evens again here, and prices bigger than 2/1 are well worth snapping up.
For an each way play we roll on to race five and Mighty Like.
There was little between him and Valiant Warrior first up from a break last time and the gap between the pair in the market looks too big.
Granted Valiant Warrior probably has the edge but had they been going to 1400m we'd probably lean the way of Mighty Like turning the tables. At around the $15.00 mark he's certainly one we'd rather have running for us than against us.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 1 #1 Strykum @ $3.20
Each Way Play: Race 5 #1 Mighty Like @ $15.00
