Four teams remain in contention for the AFC title with the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans fighting it out for a place in next weekend's Conference Championship game.
All three wildcard teams were dispatched with ease in the opening round of the postseason with KC demolishing the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo knocking the Pittsburgh Steelers out in emphatic fashion, and the Texans routing the Cleveland Browns
With two intriguing match-ups ahead, we preview both Divisional contests from a betting perspective.
Houston (11-7) @ Baltimore (13-4)
The Baltimore Ravens enter the postseason tournament hosting the best record in the NFL throughout the regular season. They are –9.5 favourites over one of the surprise packages of the season, the Houston Texans, which is a fair reflection on the face of things.
The Ravens are 6-3 at home – albeit in one of those wins they rested their starters. In their six victories at M&T Bank Stadium they have averaged 37.8 points per game, and scored 30+ points in eight of their last 11 matches.
The Texans, meanwhile, are 4-4 on the road, with a 25-9 Week 1 defeat to Baltimore on their 2023 copybook. They have, however, won four of their last five, but only boast two victories over playoff competitors this season – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Super Wildcard win over the Browns.
Ravens' quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrown for 11 touchdowns in his last four games, thrown for 229+ yards in four of his last six outings and has eight straight games with 25+ rushing yards, with Baltimore 11-1 in the past 12 games. A Ravens win, Jackson to throw for over 228.5 yards and two touchdowns, plus 25 yards rushing is a 23/10 parlay.
Opposing him is rookie sensation CJ Stroud. The quarterback has thrown for 250+ passing yards in seven of his last nine games, multiple touchdowns in nine of 17 matches and has thrown just five interceptions on the season. A 250+ passing yards (6/5) and a touchdown (10/33) is priced at 29/20.
Switching focus to the offensive skill positions, running back Devin Singletary (Houston) and wide receiver Zay Flowers (Baltimore) are in play. Singletary has 50+ yards in five of his last six outings, with a touchdown every other game. Flowers, meanwhile, has touchdown receptions in four out of five starts, and topped 50+ yards in three of those.
Looking at the points market, over 43.5 points (10/11) is certainly the play – with Baltimore over 30.5 (17/10) and Houston over 19.5 (33/20) very enticing.
Parlay – Baltimore Ravens to win by 7 points, Baltimore over 27.5 points, Houston over 13.5 points, Lamar Jackson over 228.5 yards, two passing touchdowns and 25+ rushing yards and CJ Stroud over 238.5 passing yards and a passing touchdown – 9/1.
Kansas City (12-6) @ Buffalo (12-6)
A familiar match-up in the NFL postseason, the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Buffalo for a battle with the Bills at Highmark Stadium. The teams met in the playoffs during the 2020 and 2021 postseasons, with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs winning on both occasions.
This season, however, the teams square off in New York state in front of a passionate Buffalo faithful. The Bills are –2.5 favourites, slightly on the short side given recent form perhaps, but few would bet against the reigning NFL MVP Mahomes.
The KC quarterback doesn't have the eye-watering numbers we expect from the two-time Super Bowl champion, especially in the touchdown department – he has just one multi-touchdown passing performance in the last six games. However, he has thrown for over 235 yards in five straight outings. Against a strong Buffalo unit, under 253.5 passing yards and under 1.5 passing touchdowns (19/10) is a handsome double.
Josh Allen, quarterback for Buffalo, has been exceptional in recent weeks, leading the Bills to six straight victories with impressive wins over Miami, Dallas, Kansas City and Pittsburgh, Allen has rushing touchdowns in 12 of his last 14 starts, but has also thrown interceptions in 12 of 14 – he's somewhat of an enigma. An under 228.5-yard passing, 1+ interception, 25+ rushing yard with a rushing touchdown day is 13/2.
At the skill positions, Buffalo rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and Kansas City wide receiver Rashee Rice may be the players to look at. Kincaid has 50+ receiving yards in three straight games with seven such performances on the season. KC, meanwhile, has given up 50+ receiving yards to the position in four of the past five weeks.
Rookie wide receiver Rice has seven straight games over 50+ receiving yards, with four over 91 yards. He also has five or more receptions in seven straight. A six-catch, 75+ yard performance pays at 7/5.
Parlay – Buffalo to win by 6.5 points, Josh Allen to throw for 200+ passing yards, a touchdown and rush for a touchdown, Patrick Mahomes to throw for 200+ passing yards and a touchdown, Rasheen Rice to record five receptions and 50 receiving yards – 9/1.
