A Thanksgiving tradition sees the NFL host a three-course slate of games on Thursday evening as four potential playoff contenders compete on the American holiday.
The 8-2 Detroit Lions and 7-3 Dallas Cowboys host every year on this day, and they'll face struggling divisional rivals in the form of the 4-6 Green Bay Packers and 4-7 Washington Commanders respectively, in what should be the appetisers for the main course.
The final game of the triple-header sees a battle of the top two in the NFC West as the 7-3 San Francisco 49ers travel up the West coast to visit the 6-4 Seattle Seahawks – the winner claiming a vital head-to-head victory in the race for the divisional crown. Here are the betting angles to exploit on Thursday night.
Green Bay (4-6) @ Detroit (8-2)
Detroit is the #2 seed in the NFC with an 8-2 record and take on a Green Bay franchise that is drinking in the last chance saloon in terms of playoff potential. The Lions are currently favoured by –7.5-points – just over a touchdown, and the statistical matchups heavily favour the Michigan-based team.
The obvious target for punters should be the Lions' fifth ranked rushing offense at 136.6 yards per game (YPG) against the Packers' porous run defense (allows 134.7 YPG). Green Bay has somewhat improved against the run over the last four weeks, but did allow Steelers' running back Jaylen Warren to top 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 10.
A tandem running back pair of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs complicates the betting outlook somewhat. Montgomery has carried the ball 12 times in each of the last two games, scoring a touchdown in both games and averaging 96 rush yards per game. Gibbs, meanwhile, has had his carry numbers drop, but still has three touchdowns and 265 yards over the past three games.
Let's not forget wide receiver Amon-Ra St Brown who has six 100-yard games on the season and eight performances over 71+ yards. He also has at least six receptions in eight of nine games. The issue, the lone modest performance, a five catch 56-yard display, came against Green Bay on September 29.
Montgomery for 75+ rushing yards (5/4), Gibbs for 50+ rushing yards (11/10), St Brown to go over 100 receiving yards (7/4) are all solid options, as is the –13.5-point – two touchdown margin of victory – handicap in favour of Detroit (17/10).
Washington (4-7) @ Dallas (7-3)
Dallas is the leading wildcard contender in the NFC and sits two games back in the East behind the NFL leading Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys have a habit of beating inferior teams by a large margin, and a reeling Washington Commanders side look prime for the beating.
The Cowboys are an 11-point favourite, much like the previous two weeks, that looks on the low side. Since losing to the Eagles, Dallas has 32- and 23-point wins over the 3-8 New York Giants and 1-9 Carolina Panthers. The favouritism is not as obvious as in the past two weeks in favour of the Cowboys, but a –13.5-point spread seems palatable for punters at 6/5.
The key focus in the player props markets is certainly the high-powered Dallas offense against a dreadful Washington defense that is last in the NFL in scoring – allowing 27.7 points per game. Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cook and particularly CeeDee Lamb should feast.
Quarterback Prescott has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive games, has over 272+ passing yards in four of his last five starts. He also threw for 374 yards against a similarly ranked Eagles' defense not too long ago. Three passing touchdowns (37/20) and 300 passing yards (21/10) - or even 350 (6/1) - should be in play.
Switching focus to wide receiver Lamb, he should enjoy a mammoth day against a Washington unit that has allowed Darius Slayton, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, AJ Brown (x2), Devonta Smith, Drake London, DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs and Marvin Mims to top 80+ receiving yards. Lamb is the same calibre of talent as Brown and Diggs specifically, so an eight reception (31/20), 125-yard (39/10) seems good value.
Washington quarterback Sam Howell is one of the most sacked players in the NFL, so the likes of Micah Parson (1/3), DeMarcus Lawrence (4/5) and Osa Odighizuwa (8/5) to record sacks are solid bets. A DaRon Bland interception – he leads the league in category with six – is 43/4.
San Francisco (7-3) @ Seattle (6-4)
The final matchup pits the top two in the NFC West, with a divisional lead on the line. San Francisco is perhaps the most well-rounded roster in the NFL. They are stacked at running back, wide receiver, offensive line and the defensive front seven. They boast a top four scoring unit on both offense and defense.
The Niners are –6.5-point favourites, which given their dynamic nature is way too low. Their seven wins this season have come by an average of 20.4 points, with none of the seven victories coming in under the –6.5-point line. The –16.5-point handicap could be a bold, but potentially profitable line (14/5).
The mismatch to exploit in the betting markets is the sixth ranked 49ers rushing offense against Seattle's 25th-ranked run defense unit. Running back Christian McCaffrey is one of the most gifted playmakers in the NFL and has scored a touchdown in his 18 of his last appearances.
The hat-trick (13/2) of touchdown scores for McCaffrey is another bold punt for this one, with 150 all-purpose yards (9/2) also an intriguing proposition. The San Francisco over 27.5 points line (29/20) looks tempting - a mark they have eclipsed in six of seven wins this season.
