Timeform Preview – 2023 Melbourne Cup

Legendary Irish trainer Willie Mullins has declared that winning no race would be a bigger achievement than winning the Melbourne Cup – a race that he has sent six horses to contest in the past with mixed results.

Max Dynamite has been the pick so far, under Frankie Dettori famously second to Prince Of Penzance in the 2016 Cup and back 24 months later to run third to Rekindling.

Simenon ran just as well when fourth in 2013 but both Max Dynamite and Simenon were rated well below Vauban back home.

Timeform rated Max Dynamite 137 over hurdles and 117 on the flat before he first came to Melbourne. Simenon was rated 150 over hurdles and 119 on the flat, courtesy of an Ascot Gold Cup second.

Vauban, the widest margin winner at the Royal Meeting since 2004 and at the shortest price in an handicap there this century also comes down rated 119 on the flat but it is his form over hurdles that really turns heads – rated 160 after a series of placed efforts against the top hurdlers in training.

How that form translates to the flat is the question that punters must answer – but the way he has gone about winning his last two, using a powerful change of gear to but wide margins on useful rivals, goes a long way to answering it.

Mullins is as clever as they come, and he looks to have found the right horse to land him the race that he has circled on the calendar and give champion rider Ryan Moore a second win in Australia's iconic race having already steered Protectionist to victory in 2014.

The last favourite to win the Cup was Fiorente ($7) in 2013 but the question for punters is whether Vauban is now too short in the market around the $3.50 mark. It is hard to get him there on ratings.

A vintage Caulfield Cup looks to provide the bulk of the challenge that Vauban faces. 

Without A Fight, well beaten in the Melbourne Cup 12 months ago on rain affected going, has settled right into life in Australia and arrives back at Flemington off a career-best effort to land that Caulfield Cup

It is true that the Caulfield Cup has not been the fertile land it once was when it comes to finding the Melbourne Cup winner.

This century, 139 runners through the Caulfield Cup have produced five Melbourne Cup winners - a slightly underwhelming return.

That started with Ethereal doing the double in 2001. Sixteen Caulfield Cup winners have tried since with Incentivise the only one placed.

But the weight of history won't slow down Without A Fight, and at Caulfield he was fast.

A rating of 124 there marks him down as a good Caulfield Cup winner, but importantly also a new career from just five runs in Australia.

After wintering in Queensland and winning his only two starts in impressive fashion taking the Lord Mayors Cup and Q22, the Freedman team spelled the gelding with a Cups campaign in mind.

Following a solid effort in the G1 Underwood Stakes, Without A Fight then powered away from his rivals to win the Caulfield Cup.

Without A Fight failed in the Melbourne Cup last year when well fancied but struggled in the soft ground.

Any concerns about Without A Fight handling the 3200m can easily be dispelled by looking at his record on good tracks at distances 2400m and further – four wins, six placings from 12 starts.

Despite a one kilo penalty for his win at Caulfield, Without A Fight looks primed to improve again and if he does win, he will equal the weight carrying record for horses who completed the double held by the great Galilee in 1966 who carried 56.7kgs to complete the Cups double.

The Chris Waller-trained Soulcombe who ran so well in the Caulfield Cup when left with plenty to do after making a mess of the start deserves to be treated with caution.

Being slow to jump is a problem for Soulcombe but it is a problem that trainer Chris Waller and jockey Joao Moreira can see coming – and few trainers or jockeys are better problem solvers than that pair.

Soulcombe's runs in both the Underwood and the Turnbull were terrific and point to him having a great change here, particularly given that both runs indicated that he would be better for further.

His overall record also suggests as much. Soulcombe announced himself as potentially very smart when winning the Melrose at York by a wide margin, stopping the clock more than two seconds faster than the 2022 Ebor over the same course later on the card.

The Ebor winner, Trawlerman, is now one of the best stayers in Britain, taking down Kyprios in the Long Distance Cup last time, and that is a clue that we may not have seen all that Soulcombe has to offer in Australia just yet.

Soulcombe does have a tendency to do things wrong but champion trainer Chris Waller is delving into his bag of tricks for the Cup and with one of the best lightweight jockeys in the world Joao Moreira engaged to ride, Soulcombe looms large as one of the best rated runners.

Moreira went close to winning the 2016 Cup on Heartbreak City being edged out in the last few strides by Almandin.

Waller will also be represented by new stable acquisition More Felons who caught the eye with a late flashing run for fifth in the Geelong Cup – one of the better lead up races.

At his start prior he was a close up eighth behind Absurde in the Ebor and before that runner up at York behind very good stayer Hamish in the G3 Silver Cup Stakes over 2616m. Hamish subsequently won his next two starts in group company.

That piece of form reads well here and with Jamie Kah to take the ride, he looks well placed on 50.5 kilos to race well.

The Ciaron Maher/David Eustace pair Ashrun and Future History will also join Gold Trip as the stables representatives.

After running well in the 2020 Melbourne Cup, Ashrun was off the racing scene for almost three years, however the Maher/Eustance Team have done a marvellous job to get him not only back to the track again but racing in great form.

In his three runs since resuming, Ashrun has shown steady improvement reaching a Timeform rating of 115 at his last two runs, just a couple of pounds shy of his career peak 118.

With further improvement Ashrun can easily take a hand in the finish.

It has been 16 years since Japan ran 1-2 in the Melbourne Cup with seven unplaced since then.

Breakup will be out to change that trend and his backers will be hoping that the step up to two miles will help.  His record second up is also worthy of mention – three wins, two placings from six attempts.

The best two runs of his career to date came in his two tries beyond 2500m. Third in the Hanshin Daishoten and then fourth in the Tenno Sho (Spring) – both times beaten by Justine Palace who has since held up well against the very best middle-distance horses in Japan and, in Equinox, the world.

That formline is compelling and he must be a strong chance despite a wide barrier draw.

While Without A Fight was impressive at Caufield he was not the best performance in the Caulfield Cup.

For the second year in a row Gold Trip was beaten at Caulfield but walked away with the best rating (126) in the race all things considered.  And for the second year in a row, he has used the Cox Plate as a stepping stone between Cups.

On the way to his 2022 Melbourne Cup win, Gold Trip was a touch unlucky around the Valley and returned a Timeform rating of 119 – 4lbs shy of his Caulfield Cup run.

Once again, Gold Trip didn't have the clearest run around the Valley. Running fifth returned him a Timeform rating of 122 – 4lbs shy of his recent Caulfield Cup run.

In 2022 Gold Trip was one of the 49 runners to have carried more than 56kgs to victory in the Melbourne Cup this century and one of the four winners from that set.

Those four wins are a strong return from such a small subset of the runners overall. It is much harder to beat 23 rivals than it is to beat the handicapper!

To carry 58.5kgs this year makes his task just that much harder. In Cup history the market says horses with greater than 58kgs should win 26% of the Cups, however they have won just 16%.

Enjoy the great race.