Historical Analysis of the Railway Stakes

Historical Analysis of the Railway Stakes

RAILWAY STAKES - G1 1600m

The Railway Hcp provides a great end to the year but can be controversial.

Perth’s richest race goes back to the 1880s and again this year draws together several good locals looking to repel a much larger than normal interstate brigade after that $1m purse.

That interest from Eastern States had waned for a while considering a horse like Better Loosen Up won during his assent to the throne.

The champ Northerly won this race near the limit before heading east. Find out more about these warriors from the West.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Weights are the key stats here with 56.5kg (Sniper’s Bullet) being the biggest weight carried since the metric system came in before Luckygray scored in remarkable circumstances in 2013.

o Inside barriers have usually been a definite advantage, especially considering the pace, the likelihood of a fast track and the large field size.

o Mares won back to back with Belle Bizarre and Covertly but it was a long time before that when Miss Muffett won in (’87). Elite Belle got things back on track.

o 4yos have won 22 of the last 56 Railways.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (4 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 54.0kg

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $11

o Breakdown of winners - 7 geldings & 3 mares

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Lee Steere Stks (4), Peters Stks (2), Asian Beau Stks (1), Crystal Mile Stks (1), Emirates Stks (1), Spell (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2014 - ELITE BELLE 6m (Canny Lad x Mississippi Belle) ($6)

Jockey: William Pike, Trainer: Grant Williams

Barrier: 12, Weight: 53.5kg, Gross Time: 1:35.59

Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 16

2nd: Balmont Girl (53.0kg), 3rd: Moriarty (57.0kg)

Review: Those famous pink with a white cross have won many big races for the Peters family in WA and around the country and did it again. Elite Belle had been set for last year’s race but just missed getting in.

It was another competitive mile without a dominant horse in 2014. The Cleaner was having seemingly his hundredth run for the prep and clearly it was one too many given he was further in front at the 800m of the Cox Plate than he was from these horses.

Turning it was anybody’s race and you were looking out wide but hands and heels, Pike went for inside splits on the mare and she charged through a tight gap to score from a wall of rivals.

In the end the Lee Steere Stks produced both the Railway and Winterbottom winner on the same card.

2013 - LUCKYGRAY 6g (Bradbury’s Luck x Damah Lady) ($21)

Jockey: Shaun O’Donnell, Trainer: Trevor Andrews

Barrier: 12, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 1:36.75

Margin: 0.5L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 15

2nd: Platinum Rocker (53.0kg), 3rd: Fire Up Fifi (54.0kg)

Review: Luckygray had run in three straight Railways. He’d finished second over the line twice but of course won that amazing protest in 2011. Well less was expected here coming back home from a campaign in Melbourne under the care of Robert Smerdon.

He was adequate without starring. First run back in Perth he got home nicely in the Lee Steere but still went around at 20-1 given he had to carry a massive weight compared to history. It was a mixed up race when the leaders found the front they eased.

He was back near the rear but the heavens opened on the bend and he got a run through. Just as the mares looked to keep going, the grey ran them down and won decisively.

2012 - MR MOET 5g (Mosayter x Marlock Miss) ($21)

Jockey: Daniel Staeck, Trainer: Adam Durrant

Barrier: 4, Weight: 53.0kg, Gross Time: 1:35.89

Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 16

2nd: Luckygray (58.0kg), 3rd: Rosie Rocket (53.0kg)

Review: What a tremendous achievement to win this first up. It’s a testament to current training methods because it would not have happened previously.

The local was taking on a few good interstaters and the previous champ Luckygray. While Fat Al led and the brothers Playing God and God Has Spoken were in behind him, Mr Moet was eased into trailing them.

He got clear at the turn and once he had Playing God covered, he was home. However Luckygray and Rosie Rocket should have won given the runs they had.