Historical Analysis of the Memsie Stakes

Historical Analysis of the Memsie Stakes

MEMSIE STAKES - G1 1400m

The Memsie Stakes at Caulfield has been won by some darn fine horses. Previous years it has contained a large number of new season 4yos and several G1 winners. Let’s see what this year’s Memsie might throw up as to whether it is a great Spring preview. 2013 was the first as a G1 and it was a cracker.

PROFILING THE RACE

o The Memsie is a race where good WFA horses win.

o It has been a top race for mares with Atlantic Jewel, King’s Rose, Miss Finland, Makybe Diva, Magical Miss, Sunline (twice), & Dane Ripper winning since the 1998.

o Track conditions certainly play a part but it hasn’t been disadvantageous to get back and swoop late over recent years. In fact 10 of last 11 came late up the middle of Caulfield.

o Recent Memsies have been run at fair pace but rarely are they run with breakneck speed.

o Softer barriers have helped the cause.

o Favourites have had a very good run taking 9 of last 14.

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (5 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $4.30

o Breakdown of winners - 5 geldings, 1 entire & 4 mares

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Aurie’s Star (2), Liston Stks (2), Spell (6)

o Last 10 Years - No of Caulfield Cup winners who ran in Memsie - 1

o Last 10 Years - No of Cox Plate winners who ran in Memsie - 5

o Last 10 Years - No of Melbourne Cup winners who ran in Memsie - 5

RECENT WINNERS

2013 - ATLANTIC JEWEL 5m (Fastnet Rock x Regard) ($2.25 fav)

Jockey: Michael Rodd, Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

Barrier: 7, Weight: 57.0kg, Gross Time: 1:24.43

Margin: 2.5L, Track: Dead (4), Starters: 13

2nd: Ferlax (58.5kg), 3rd: Super Cool (58.5kg)

Review: Australian Racing needed a star again. We lost Black Caviar, Hay List was in a rocking chair and all the top 3yos from the previous season went to stud. Then like a Phoenix rising from 18 months hibernation, Kav produced the Coolmore mare and she was simply awesome. The race was upgraded to G1 and attracted a top field, many of whom would have run there anyway but as a collection it was brilliant. She didn’t have it her own way either with Happy Trails kicking up and planting her three wide for much of the trip. But around the bend it looked like she’d just joined in. Galloping lesson was the only way to describe the margin. All the new season 4yos were next in line.

2012 - SINCERO 5g (Umatilla x Yours As Always) ($3.50 fav)

Jockey: Michael Rodd, Trainer: Stephen Farley

Barrier: 4, Weight: 59.0kg, Gross Time: 1:23.27

Margin: 2L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 15

2nd: Happy Trails (59.0kg), 3rd: Second Effort (59.0kg)

Review: After a short Autumn when he ran well without winning, he went to Melbourne first up. Brilliantly ridden by Michael Rodd, he went back to fence in a fast run race but worked off in the mid stages and by the time they were straightening, he was in the right part of the track. There was a class edge over the trip and a dominant victory.

2011 - KING'S ROSE 4m (Redoute’s Choice x Nureyev’s Girl) ($7.50)

Jockey: Luke Nolen, Trainer: Peter Moody

Barrier: 11, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 1:23.44

Margin: 0.1L, Track: Good (3), Starters: 13

2nd: Heart Of Dreams (59.0kg), 3rd: Red Colossus (59.0kg)

Review: The former kiwi mare was first time out for Peter Moody. Camping midfield she had a lovely run in transit and tacked onto the right horse, Heart Of Dreams, who would take her into the race. Nolen got her mobile and she nabbed the second horse in the last furlong. Red Colossus was a touch unlucky and some of the stayers like Linton, Absolutely and Shamrocker ran home well.