Historical Analysis of the South Australian Derby

Historical Analysis of the South Australian Derby

SA DERBY - G1 2500m

While some recent South Australian Derbies haven’t exactly set the world on fire, occasionally you can pull a good horse. Mummify, Subzero, On a Jeune, Markham, Count Chivas, Shiva’s Revenge and The Phantom all come out of the Derby in the last 20 years and you should recognise that most of their best runs are the two mile contests. Let’s see if we can spot another possible Melbourne Cup runner?

PROFILING THE RACE

o Form tends to head toward Melbourne Cup distances.

o Wide barriers have not hindered with two coming from the outside gate but last two years drew one.

o Fillies don’t run often but when they do they are competitive (Zarita/Showella/Mapperley Heights/English Wonder).

o It tends to be either dead set favourites or real roughies.

o Cliffy Brown had a great trot winning 3 in 5 years at massive odds (Cheviot, Markham & Blue Murder).

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <13-16> - 3 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $11.50

o Breakdown of winners - 6 geldings, 1 filly & 3 colts

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Chairman’s Stks (3), AJC Derby (1), Australasian Oaks (1), Packer Plate (1), VRC St Leger (1), 3yo Open Caul (1), Class 5 Wnbl (1), BM72 Geet (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2013 - ESCADO 3g (Casino Prince x Secret Clause) ($13)

Jockey: Ben Melham, Trainer: Matt Laurie

Barrier: 1, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:39.05

Margin: 1.8L, Track: Dead, Starters: 15

2nd: Hioctdane (56.5kg), 3rd: Shoreham (56.5kg)

Review: This may have been the result that those wanting to downgrade the Derby would wish for but nonetheless it was an important win for a young trainer. Matt Laurie had had less than a handful of starters in a G1 but this bloke had been more than adequate in the Vic Derby back in November. The form from that race has stood up all season so perhaps it was somewhat of a surprise he went around at the odds he did. Then again he was beaten on the Geelong Synthetic prior to this. Using gate one to advantage, Ben Melham allowed Escado to go to sleep from the outset back midfield but at the important stage of the race, he kept pinching runs as others went wide. Not going around a horse he railed home much like the previous year and drew clear.

2012 - ZABEELIONAIRE 3c (Zabeel x Kisumu) ($4 eq fav)

Jockey: Damien Oliver, Trainer: Leon Corstens

Barrier: 1, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:42.16

Margin: 0.5L, Track: Dead, Starters: 16

2nd: Sabrage (56.5kg), 3rd: Westsouthwest (56.5kg)

Review: Drawing a gate allowed Zabeelionaire to relax on the fence and wait. And he had to wait indeed with others swooping around him. When they all started to weaken in the straight, he pooped up the inside and secured the run. Even then he wasn’t home as others rallied but he didn’t have to beat much as it’s turned out.

2011 - SHADOWS IN THE SUN 3g (Dane Shadow x Best Out West) ($21)

Jockey: Ben Melham, Trainer: Anthony Cummings

Barrier: 10, Weight: 56.5kg, Gross Time: 2:39.88

Margin: 0.8L, Track: Good, Starters: 16

2nd: Echoes Of Heaven (56.5kg), 3rd: Lalla Rookh (54.5kg)

Review: It is hard to imagine a sprinting type like Dane Shadow could produce a Derby winner but that is exactly the case. He got back onto a good track at Morphettville and Ben Melham jumped aboard. Taken straight to the front, he led them at a decent pace but when asked looked in trouble. However the challengers came up and back and he fought back to win by nearly a length.