Historical Analysis of the Caulfield Cup

Historical Analysis of the Caulfield Cup

CAULFIELD CUP - G1 2400m

While it is the first leg of Australia’s handicap Cups double, the Caulfield Cup has remained a great race by itself. However it is also one of the best formguides to our most famous horserace. Usually run at a frenetic pace, you need both high speed and depth of stamina to win over this particular 2400m course as was displayed by possibly the two greatest winners of this race Might and Power and Tulloch some 40 years apart. Look at the recent winners.

PROFILING THE RACE

o Barriers have become more important in recent seasons.

o Many a handicapper has won the CC and they dominated before Dunaden’s class win.

o Leaders had a trot early this decade.

o Highest recent weight was Dunaden and Northerly’s 58 while lightest was Arctic Scent with 49kg in last 16 years.

o Only 3 mares have won in the last 19 years (Southern Speed, Ethereal & Arctic Scent).

o 11 of the last 19 winners have been 4yos.

o Horses in the market have run well but at backable odds (aside from ’08).

o Last 10 Winners Most Prevalent Age of winner - 4yo (5 times)

o Last 10 Winners Average Weight of winner - 53.5kg

o Last 10 Years Winningest Barrier Range <1-4> - 3 times

o Last 10 Winners Average Price of winner - $13

o Breakdown of winners - 4 geldings, 1 mare & 5 entires

o Races that the winner ran in prior - Turnbull Stks (4), Metropolitan Hcp (2), Newburgh Stks (1), Caulfield Stks (1), Herbert Power Hcp (1), King George (1)

RECENT WINNERS

2012 - DUNADEN 6h (Nicobar x La Marlia) ($13)

Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: Mikel Delzangles

Barrier: 18, Weight: 58.0kg, Gross Time: 2:28.82

Margin: 0.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 18

2nd: Alcopop (52.5kg), 3rd: Lights Of Heaven (53.0kg)

Review: Class with a Capital C. The European stayers were winning everything but here was something new. A Melbourne Cup winner coming back to the Caulfield Cup is not out of the ordinary (Viewed) but not with the imports. Then he went and drew 18. Williams snagged him out of the gates, he was second last on the fence past post first time. He latched onto Alcopop’s back when the leaders Glencadam Gold and Voila Ici punctured but the SA champ put three lengths on him. However that staying ability rounded them up and he came away.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - 14th

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO

2011 - SOUTHERN SPEED 4m (Southern Image x Golden Eagle) ($10)

Jockey: Craig Williams, Trainer: Leon Macdonald/Andrew Gluyas

Barrier: 3, Weight: 52.5kg, Gross Time: 2:28.44

Margin: 1.5L, Track: Good, Starters: 18

2nd: Green Moon (53.0kg), 3rd: Tullamore (54.5kg)

Review: Craig Williams put her in exactly the right spot. There had been talk in some media sections that it would be slowly run. That seemed pie in the sky with several internationals querying the favourites 2400m credentials. And so it was the Hong Kong horse Mighty High who poured it on. Then Green Moon, who was deep a lot of the race, eventually got near the speed. He went for home before the turn but it let Williams out. At that time wide runners like Lucas Cranach and Tullamore worked home well while the Cumani pair got inside runs. The winner drove away under the light weight to give Adelaide the big one.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - DID NOT START

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO

2010 - DESCARADO 4g (High Chaparral x Karamea Lady) ($17)

Jockey: Chris Munce, Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

Barrier: 15, Weight: 52.5kg, Gross Time: 2:35.69

Margin: 1L, Track: Heavy, Starters: 18

2nd: Harris Tweed (54.0kg), 3rd: Monaco Consul (54.0kg)

Review: On a very bad day weather wise at Caulfield, stable mate Herculian Prince led with the winner but then Triple Honour whipped around them at the 1400m. Munce pulled him out before the runs were made by the railway side and didn’t seem to be going well but he was hard fit. All the placegetters were in those movers while the favourite Shocking was way back. Just when Harris Tweed looked like winning, the strength came through and Descarado pulled away.

Where did the Caulfield Cup winner run in the Melbourne Cup - FAILED TO FINISH

Did the Melbourne Cup winner run at Caulfield - NO