Future Betting Plans

Manawanui still has to be right in Guineas calculations

The 3yos came into the main picture last weekend in a variety of races.

And with the Sydney features on this Saturday and the Turnbull meeting on Sunday, there will be plenty of movement by during next seven days.

Let's see what the TAB has put up as well as any fluctuations at Betfair.

CAULFIELD GUINEAS - 8 October

We saw three major lead ups for the Guineas in three different races. And Friday night at the Valley will be the other interesting race to race although it has lost the focus of Moment Of Change with news he is heading to the paddock.

So how do we assess Smart Missile ($3.20 TAB) going forward? He was last and working home without challenging as a short favourite in the Rupert Clarke but it was against the open age horses. He just has to improve his race sense.

Then you look at Helmet ($2.70) who ran faster by half a second than the G1 over the same course and distance when on the pace. On this occasion it was he who ironically did all the right things. The mile should not be a problem - further will be interesting.

Finally to Manawanui ($6) who had a walk, trot and canter in the Stan Fox. It was like a barrier trial but you can't knock his professionalism. It might be just that that gives him the advantage in the G1 at Caulfield.

The market separates quickly after that.

THOUSAND GUINEAS - 12 October

The Thousand Guineas favouritism was blown to smithereens with Atlantic Jewel now into $2.30 Betfair. Her win at Caulfield was so dominant it is hard to see her being beaten even though she hasn't touched the stakes company. Those from the Prelude a week earlier will have to make plenty of improvement or bad luck to see her beaten.

Runner up Our Miss Jones ($26) is going well but perhaps her best might be over further.

While it might be difficult to see her challenging, could we see Roma Giaconda ($51) in the mix, at least or the placings off the back of her placing to Manawanui.

Amazingly, despite staying at home and not much action in the race from the perspective of potential entrants into the Cups, December Draw shortened into $3.70 and then again into $3.50 with the withdrawal of Scarlett Lady through injury on Wednesday.

Not sure how that works unless there were some substantial doubles from the weekend coupled into him but surely at about 3-1 he was worth maintaining his price this far out.

Maybe the lowest priced mover on the boards was the Hong Kong horse Mighty High ($26). His run was pretty good over 1700m under the 61.5kg and he will drop a significant amount of weight.

Lamasery ($51) was the other one after winning the Colin Stephen and while his goal looks to be the Metropolitan, he is a very honest horse.

WS COX PLATE - 22 October

The Turnbull will have a massive impact on the Cox Plate betting with all bar Jimmy Choux ($7 TAB) likely to be engaged of the older horses. But remember he goes around at Hastings in the Spring Classic.

Many are wondering what influence the 3yos will have against the older horses and we might see just how good they are if Helmet ($8) and Smart Missile ($12) get to the WFA Championship.

Must say it is hard to imagine Helmet as the favourite for a Derby given his breeding but so be it he is now the equal $8 elect.

That is with Chase The Rainbow ($8) who was late scratched last week due to the Good 2 track. He is down to run Friday night at the Valley in the Stutt Stks.

After a nice run last week and from a renowned stable of stayers, you could envisage improvement to come from the Patrick Payne trained Baron Douro ($21).

An interesting runner during the week was Niagara ($31) who only defeated three other rivals at Canterbury but it was the manner of the win. Apparently heading to Melbourne for the Robinson and that may tell the tale.

Watch the UCI Stks this Sunday as a guide as well as the Spring Champion Stks at Randwick.

MELBOURNE CUP - 1 November

All this talk about imports running in the Cups raises an interesting issue. What do you consider an import?

At the top of the markets, of those under 50-1, there are 16 horses out of 25 who started their careers in Europe. However of that 16, nine are now locally trained. It's exactly why the argument for quotas is so silly.

There is a thought that Americain ($15 TAB) has had a different prep this time knowing he is good enough to contest the Cups now and so he'll be peaked up on the day not just for Geelong. The Yalumba Stks is a possible target first up here.

VRC OAKS - 3 November

Atlantic Jewel ($3.60) seems incredibly short even thought out of a Zabeel mare as you'd think a Fastnet Rock would struggle to get the 2500m.

The Edward Manifold will be a guide as it often shows up the Flemington horses for the Oaks.

Vittoria ($15) took on the boys last time and her NZ form through Dowager Queen as a 2yo might be solid enough as we get to the staying trips. She is from a staying stable.

PATINACK CLASSIC - 5 November

The TAB started betting on the feature Sprint of Cup winner and hardly surprising that the champion mare Black Caviar has opened up short - $1.50. The only way you'd take her on is if you are willing to take the gamble they change plans or something sadly goes wrong.

With the Manikato as the first goal against older horses, Sepoy ($4.40) may head to the Coolmore Stud Stks then to the Patinack.

*** Prices are correct at time of publishing and are subject to change ***