Ted Walsh believes Any Second Now will need plenty of luck to go one better than last year and win the Grand National.
The JP McManus-owned gelding was third behind Minella Times in the Aintree spectacular in 2021 and runner-up last year to Noble Yeats.
And Walsh, who saddled Papillon to victory in the race 23 years ago, knows the just-turned 11-year-old will do well to give him a second success.
Any Second Now returned to action over hurdles at Punchestown on New Year's Eve, showing his well-being with a fair second to Saint Sam over an extended two miles and three furlongs.
It was the first step to another crack at the extended four-and-a-quarter-mile Grade Three prize at Aintree, and Walsh was satisfied with the performance.
He said: "He ran all right. That was what we expected him to do. He is going to be competing at the top table, so you want to be running well.
"He was due to run a couple of times earlier on, but each race was called off, so he was a little bit more advanced than he was for his first run last year. He's grand, has taken it well and has taken everything in his stride from day one.
"He will definitely run twice more and maybe have three more runs before Aintree.
"He's not after prize-money, but there's nothing like a bit of competition."
Walsh will undertake a familiar preparation towards a return to the Merseyside track in April, with Any Second Now likely to revert to fences next time.
"He might run at Leopardstown or he might run at Gowran Park at the end of the month, and he might run somewhere else after that," said Walsh.
"He might run over fences, I don't know if he'll run over hurdles again. I'll see what suits him, but he won't run anywhere for a month.
"He'll run somewhere in January, somewhere in February and somewhere in March. He'll run at least twice, maybe three times.
"He's quite a clear horse. I just think that's the right preparation – maybe I'm right, maybe I'm wrong, but that's what I'm doing, anyway.
"I don't have a set pattern. Some horses take plenty and some horses don't. He is lightly raced. He is in his seventh year here now and he's has no more than 30 runs in his life."
A gallant third after being badly hampered in the 2021 National, 12 months on and 7lb higher, he managed to push Noble Yeats to within a little over two lengths.
Yet the County Kildare handler feels last season's Bobbyjo Chase winner will do well to replicate his previous good form at Aintree this year.
"He's been unlucky not to win a National, but he probably won't win one at this stage," admitted Walsh.
"He was a bit unlucky the year they called it off because of Covid (2020) – he was well handicapped and is about 20lb higher now.
"Then he was unlucky to be (nearly) brought down in the year that (jockey) Rachael Blackmore won it. I'm not saying he would have won it, but he was unlucky.
"Then he was unlucky to run up against a well-handicapped young horse on the up last year.
"Worse horses have won the National. I know better horses have as well, but if luck had bounced his way, he could have won one.
"I doubt he can win one. I couldn't see it. He has gone up a long way in the handicap and he's certainly not going to get any better at 11 than he was at nine and 10."
There has not been a winner of the National aged 10 or over since 11-year-old Pineau De Re scored in 2014 and Walsh says the lowering of the fences and the compression of the handicap in recent years has made the race a different test than in previous times.
"The National is not like it was," he added. "When Red Rum won it, it wasn't like when Reynoldstown won it. And when Tiger Roll won it, it wasn't like when Red Rum won it.
"The last National to be run without aprons was in 1963 when Ayala won it. The National had no take-offs in front of the fences when he won it.
"These days, you don't even know they are jumping Becher's (Brook) now unless the commentator tells you they are jumping it. Nobody would know. They don't even nod at the back of it.
"I'm old fashioned. I don't think the changes are a good thing, but that's neither here nor there. It is what it is.
"It is more of a stamina test than it was 20 years ago – a lot more. They never take the foot off the pedal.
"Years ago, the first thing all the jockeys will tell you is that they would hunt around the first round and then ride a race. Now they just jump out and it's go-go-go."
