Newmarket's July Course hasn't been such a happy hunting ground for Australian sprinters and that trend can continue in the July Cup tonight.
Since the turn of the century eleven Australian-trained horses have taken their chance at the July Course with Choisir's second to Oasis Dream in 2003 clearly the best result.
Australia's representative tonight fits the profile of several of those who have taken up the challenge before him.
With a Timeform rating of 126, Brazen Beau is rated slightly superior to Shamexpress and Star Witness who ran seventh and tenth respectively, and he should run a better race than they did.
Starspangledbanner ran for Ireland in 2010 but he brought Australian form with him and is another good historical pointer to where Brazen Beau sits.
He was rated a slightly superior to Brazen Beau with a Timeform rating of 128, and the results of their respective Jubilee runs at the Royal Meeting hint towards that being an accurate assessment.
Using these reference points leaves us to thinking that Brazen Beau will fall somewhere between sixth and second in a typical running of the July Cup.
That's backed up by a look at the ratings of the field assembled for this year's running with Brazen Beau sitting second on that list.
The top-rated horse in the field is the Commonwealth Cup winner Muuharar who ran to 128 at the Royal Meeting, right where you would want him to be coming into a July Cup with that rating putting him alongside former July Cup-winning three-year-olds Oasis Dream, Sakhee's Secret and Dream Ahead.
Further to that, the Commonwealth Cup performance was backed up by a dominant margin and a fast time. There's potentially even more to come from Muhaarar and any concerns about that performance being a one-off or a fluke are cast aside when looking at the clock from his Newbury win when stepping out for the first time this campaign.
He smashed the clock again that day, beating a couple of smart performers into second and third, and that performance on it's own would have him under serious consideration in today's race, that he has backed it up with an even better win just adds to the mounting case for him being a worthy July Cup winner.
Being a three-year-old is probably a positive in itself. Following on from Golden Horn's dominant display in the Eclipse there has been a bit of debate about the weight-for-age scale and whether it is tilted unfairly in favour of the classic generation.
Statistically three-year-olds win more than they would be expected to at random, and while that stat isn't amplified in the July Cup it doesn't read poorly for the three-year-olds who have won a third of the July Cup's this century after providing 28 per cent of the runners.
That's probably no more than could be expected, given that the three-year-olds that run in the race are typically a more select group; older horses provide a lot more 100-1 shots with little chance of success.
Away from the big two at the top of the market Sole Power and G Force are the two that rate as the biggest dangers, and that probably strengthens the view that the pair at the top have a stranglehold on the race as Sole Power has still never won over 1200m (after 10 attempts) and G Force has beaten home just three of 44 rivals since his win in last season's Sprint Cup.
Hardly the sort of stats to have us scrambling to back them!
All in all the race looks to set up best for Muhaarar and he is confidently tipped as the horse to beat with Brazen Beau the one best placed to take advantage if the three-year-old fails to run his race.
Best of luck and happy punting.
