The lack of races priced up by bookmakers for Saturday is an indication that this weekend is something of a lull in the action in the UK, however the Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock is priced up by a couple of firms.
The race has been a frequent port of call for Sir Michael Stoute who won the race with Class Is Class in 2011 and Notable Guest in 2005, however he has also had a host of well-fancied horses beaten in the race, including the aforementioned Class Is Class who could only manage second place in the year prior to his victory.
Stoute – whose horses have really hit top stride over the past fortnight – has the returning Arab Spring in the entries. Arab Spring has been off the track for 436 days, the former Duke of Edinburgh Handicap winner matching that form when a creditable head second to Western Hymn in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown on his final start of 2015. The strong stayer could be hard to beat, especially if allowed to dictate from the front (lack of pace elsewhere makes this quite likely), however race fitness must be taken on trust.
Arab Spring is only 1 lb below Scottish, who tops our weight-adjusted figures, however Charlie Appleby’s gelding was scratched from the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last week due to a muscle injury so his participation in Saturday’s race must be rated very doubtful, especially with connections mindful of keeping the horse on track for a crack at the Melbourne Cup later in the year.
Basem, Gabrial and Foundation are all very closely matched on the figures, however each is opposable for different reasons. Saeed bin Suroor’s Basem was back to form when 2½ lengths fifth of 19 to Educate in the John Smith's Cup at York last time but his best performances have come on tracks with a testing uphill finish (three at Sandown, one at Newmarket). Richard Fahey’s Gabrial – fifth in the Sussex Stakes last week - has been some way below his peak when tried over ten furlongs in the past, making Foundation the more interesting of the trio.Though he hasn’t yet matched the form of his Royal Lodge win of last season, John Gosden’s charge ran creditably when 1¾ lengths third of 12 to Wings of Desire in the Dante Stakes at York in May, meeting some trouble 2f out. He ran poorly in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly last time but is worth another chance back on better ground. However, at prices of 2/1, and with something to prove, he is worth taking on.
The best value is 5/1 shot Decorated Knight, a progressive four-year-old trained by Roger Charlton who has his horses in red-hot form. According to Timeform’s calculations, 28 of his last 38 runners (spread out over a month or so) have run to expectations, a percentage only bettered at present in the UK/Ireland by Aidan O’Brien. Decorated Knight stepped up on his reappearance/debut for his new yard at Ascot in April when winning a listed race at Goodwood the following month.
He was then beaten just a short-head in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom in June, where he ran well and might well have won had he handled the track a bit better, faltering close home. He didn't need to improve when landing the 7-runner Group 3 Meld Stakes at Leopardstown last time by two lengths from Royal Hunt Cup winner Portage, quickening clear 1f out and winning readily. With a lack of pace a possible scenario, his potent turn of foot could be crucial.
Mark Johnston’s Fire Fighting – winner of a competitive handicap at Goodwood last week – is a danger, with his trainer explaining that a busy schedule suits this horse best (25 runs in 2015), however Fire Fighting is best coming off a strong gallop in bigger fields than looks likely here. Gershwin also has the option of a handicap on the same card and it would be a left-field decision to run him here considering his BHA mark of 98, which leaves him with plenty to find with the principals. Battalion has become disappointing and needs a major revival, while the thrice-raced Royal Artillery, fifth in the Tercentenary last time, remains with potential but his level of form leaves him with major improvement needed.
To conclude, there are ifs and buts about several amongst the entries, however, despite having to shoulder a 4 lb penalty for his Leopardstown win last time, Decorated Knight has a much more solid profile. He can win this before going on to better things.
Recommended bet:Back Decorated Knight to win Saturday's Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock at 5/1
