At which point did Richard Fahey know that he had an Ayr Gold Cup winner in the horse that made its debut only in mid-May?
With hindsight, it’s possible to see the shape of things to come from as early as the horse in question’s first handicap success at Haydock, Don’t Touch winning there in the style of the perfect handicap climber. It’s been all heads and half-lengths since Don’t Touch started in handicaps, allowing him to make the four-run journey from useful prospect to the first winning favourite in the Ayr Gold Cup since 1996 on a total improvement of just 18 lb.
Following his half-length success over Poyle Vinnie on Saturday, Don’t Touch is now rated 116p. Still so early in his career, he should continue to improve in any case, but there’s also potentially a big step to come when he goes up to seven furlongs next year, everything about him suggesting that trip, perhaps even a mile, to be his optimum. He’s already Group-class, so Group 1s in 2016 are wholly realistic.
Though [nDon't Touch[/n]’s win was the most portentous at Ayr’s three-day Western Meeting, it wasn’t the highest-rated. In that category he was edged out by Scottish (117), who just prevailed over favourite Mutakayyef in the Doonside Cup. It was a first win for Scottish outside of maidens, but to say it is due compensation would be to undersell him: he’s probably a little better than listed class, potentially a lower-end Group winner if he’s placed to best effect.
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Ridiculing the title of Newbury’s Group 3 Arc Trial is so worn that even Wikipedia likes to point out that it’s a misnomer, which though undoubted does distract from the point that its winners tend to have above-average prospects at a higher level. Already this decade, two winners (Dangerous Midge and Hillstar) went on to win a Grade 1 in North America on their next run and further back Grandera and Fantastic Light took the race before going on to become multiple Group 1 winners.
Timeform tentatively harbour similar hopes for this year’s Arc Trial winner The Corsican. After luckless runs in the Prince of Wales’s and Glorious Stakes, on Saturday he gained partial compensation and again left the impression we didn’t see his full worth. As such he remains on 122p.
The Corsican would need to exercise that symbol pretty much fully to win a British Group 1- especially one as hot as the Champion Stakes, his reported next target. Given Jamie Spencer was so adamant that his mount won in spite of softer conditions on Saturday, it's surprising that David Simcock, no stranger to taking his horses further afield, isn't considering the Breeders' Cup Turf as an alternative. The Corsican isn't far off the five-year average for the winner that race, and Kentucky in late-October must give a better chance of firmer ground than Berkshire two weeks earlier.
Alongside the Arc Trial at Newbury there was the similarly grandly-titled (albeit at the behest of sponsors) World Trophy, another up-to-scratch Group 3. Here overdue compensation was the main story, rather than a subplot. Steps (123) deserved to land a Group race after his monstrous handicap performance to land the Portland last time and did so despite conceding first run, getting up right on the line. Though the race went largely to script, it shouldn’t be overlooked that runner-up Ridge Ranger, now rated 114, is of Group 3-winning standard when you factor in weight-for-sex.
Strictly on grade, the Group 2 Mill Reef was the feature at Newbury on Saturday. As is often the case, autumnal conditions did for plenty of the runners, though there’s reason to be positive about the achievements of the first two- Log Out Island (110) and, particularly, winner Ribchester. The last-named is firmly on the up and, now rated 115, has Group 1 potential that’s surely as strong as that of his stablemate Don’t Touch.
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As we’re getting closer to the Breeders’ Cup, a final bulletin comes from the States, where Parx hosted a couple of graded races that could be counted as trials for Keeneland. Frosted (123) kept himself on the Classic hunt with success in the Pennsylvania Derby but remains justifiably in the second-tier in the ante-post betting.The Cotillion Stakes on the same card was won in good style by I’m A Chatterbox, who is now very much in the reckoning for the Distaff. She’s rated 119, in the vicinity of older ante-post favourites Wedding Vow (122) and Sheer Drama (121).
