Be it down to a lack of seven-furlong specialists, a wealth of similar races, or a mixture of the two, Newbury’s Group 2 Hungerford Stakes often sees field sizes dip below the eight-runner mark.
This year could fall into that category again, with several of those currently occupying the top of the market far from certain to line up in the race come Saturday.
The likely small field size may seem disappointing for day-of-race punters, but from an ante-post perspective, with 24 runners still entered, there is certainly a chance to find some value.
Richard Hannon’s pair, Toormore and Estidkhaar, look almost certain to target Sunday’s Jacques Le Marois at Deauville on Sunday instead, while smart sprinter Limato’s participation is reportedly ground dependant, so those entrants who are intended runners become much more attractive betting options.
Home of The Brave could be the solution. Though it feels early to call him a seven-furlong specialist, it’s already fairly clear that he struggles to get a mile or to quite go the pace in top sprints. This race is therefore a natural choice and is indeed his aim according to trainer Hugo Palmer. Home of The Brave was last seen winning the Group 3 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh last month, looking a cut above the grade as he galloped his opponents into the ground to score by a commanding three-and-a-half lengths. He got his own way in front there, but a small field here could easily see that come around again, while it can hardly be said to represent shaky form as he was chased home by recent Maurice de Gheest third Gordon Lord Byron.
As Home of The Brave falls between two stools in terms of trip, he may also do so in terms of class. He’s struggled in Group 1s but is a dual winner at Group 3 level, both times leaving the impression that a Group 2 is within his reach. With many other market principals due to come out, he may even end up the form choice by the time Saturday rolls around.
With regular pilot Jim Crowley already confirmed aboard Here Comes When, we can assume he is also an intended runner on Saturday for Andrew Balding, and he is certainly worth discussing for what would be his first crack at seven furlongs since winning the Group 2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket last season. Here Comes When is yet to add to that win so far this season (as a result escapes a Group 2 penalty), though Group 1 races on firmer ground don’t seem to serve him best. Should the forecast rain materialise he’d be a threat to all, but his apparent ground dependence makes him an unattractive ante-post option. Wait until Saturday if you fancy him.
Elsewhere, Adaay has Paul Hanagan confirmed on his first start over a trip other than six furlongs. Though he’s by a sprinter (Kodiac), Adaay’s dam stayed seven furlongs and on his win over Limato he’s entitled to respect, though that also brings him a Group 2 penalty which would demand a career-best from him here.
Also worth a mention is Sloane Avenue, who has so far saved his best for all-weather/dirt but has form claims if able to bring that back to turf. He’d certainly be a big player if running to the form of his Goodolphin Mile second, when he was only a short-head behind Tamarkuz. The mention of him is only cautionary, though, as a horse with form only on synthetics and dirt (especially that of Meydan) has to prove himself separately on turf.
With the participation of so many of the market principles in doubt, the 2015 Hungerford could look like a completely different race after declarations, so it could pay to act fast. Take an early position on Home of The Brave, before the likes of Toormore, Estidhkaar and potentially Limato come out of the race.
Recommendation:
Back Home of The Brave in the Hungerford Stakes
