Joe Rendall looks towards the best betting heat on day one of next week's Royal meeting.
There are few occasions in racing that stir the blood as much as the opening day of a major festival. For sheer excitement and anticipation you will struggle to beat Champion Hurdle day at Cheltenham, but the opening day of Royal Ascot, on which five races out of six are at pattern level, is unrivalled in terms of quality. The card this year looks as good as ever and from a betting perspective the King's Stand Stakes, in which all of the first three home from last year return to do battle again, looks the pick of the lot.
It's only right to examine the claims of defending champion Sole Power first. He was last seen running out a comfortable victor of the Palace House Stakes on Guineas Day and in truth he was value for more than the winning margin of half a length. He's proved himself as effective as ever at the age of seven and although he was forced to miss the Temple Stakes due to soft going, the forecast suggests that he will get the sound surface on which he's produced his very best form at Ascot. There's likely to be plenty of pace which is bound to suit and given that five furlongs looks to be his ideal trip, conditions looks to be at an optimum and he will be tough to beat.
Shea Shea, who was denied by the narrowest margin in the race last year, is another who looks to have lost none of his ability 12 months on. That he could only manage third in the Al Quoz Sprint last time out can be placed chiefly at the door of Christophe Soumillon and although Shea Shea will line up next week off the back of 80-day break, he was coming off a similar absence in 2013. Like Sole Power he'll appreciate a sound surface, and Mike de Kock has made no secret about how highly he regards his star sprinter. However, after narrow defeats in this race last year and by shock 40-1 winner Jwala in the Nunthorpe Stakes, there is a slight reservation as to whether it is in his nature to find one too good.
The horse who finished third in 2013 King's Stand has an altogether different profile, and relative to most five-year-old sprinters Pearl Secret remains lightly raced with just the nine career starts to his name. He ran a blinding race 12 months ago off the back of a 10-month absence on ground which was probably quicker than ideal. He disappointed at Newmarket returned to Group company this season but was right back to form last time, beaten only half a length in the Temple Stakes. That run will have put him spot on for Ascot and if he takes his chance he may well surprise a few.
The reason he may go elsewhere curtails quite nicely into the main selection for the race, the highly-promising Hot Streak. Both are owned by Qatar Racing, and although Pearl Secret ran a mighty race in defeat at Haydock last time, Hot Streak always had his measure. That win in the Temple Stakes confirmed the suspicion that he was more than ready for the step up to Group 1 company and the manner in which he went through the race was extremely impressive.
Three-year-old sprinters who can hold their own against their elders are a rare commodity, but Hot Streak looks to be one and it's no exaggeration to say he's captured the imagination of many at Timeform House so far this summer. That's reflected in his master rating of 127p which has been bettered only by Kingman and Australia, and if you add his outstanding performance in the Cornwallis Stakes over C&D last October into the bargain, the stage looks set for a stellar performance.
Both Kevin Ryan and David Redvers have made it clear they feel Hot Streak is a colt of considerable ability and it's this race that's been the target for quite a while; there had been reservations that he'd kept his best performances for soft ground but he won on a sound surface on debut and ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in similar conditions. This year's crop of three-year-olds looks a particularly deep one in terms of ability and it would be no surprise to see Hot Streak fly the flag for the sprinting division in a week's time.
As for those at a bigger price, Ahtoug rates as an interesting contender after an admirable campaign in Dubai which included finishing in front of Shea Shea in the Al Quoz Sprint. Maarek is a genuine Group 1 performer but has reserved his best form for when there's cut in the ground and might be found lacking for some toe in likely faster conditions at Ascot.
One at a bigger price who might be worth supporting is Guerre, who looks a highly-progressive type and lowered the colours of Maarek at Naas last time on only his third career start. Although he was in receipt of a healthy weight-for-age allowance the manner in which he went through the race was particularly eye-catching and he won with a fair bit in hand. It goes without saying that on bare form he has to take a huge step up to be on the premises in this company, but he's lightly raced, capable of improving further and doesn't look short of speed.
The 2014 renewal of the King's Stand looks a hugely competitive one, with any one of the first three him last year looking capable of winning. It's something of an accepted wisdom in racing that three-year-old sprinters are often vulnerable to their elders, but in Hot Streak we have a horse who allies considerable ability with the exuberance of youth, and he can get what's already shaping up to be a memorable Royal meeting off to an exciting - and profitable - start.
Recommendation:
Back Hot Streak and Guerre E/W in the King's Stand Stakes
