Regular Irish racing contributor Tony Keenan takes a look at this week's big races at the Curragh, and our man fancies 2,000 Guineas hope Mustajeeb to continue the blistering start to the season made by Dermot Weld...
It's likely confirmation bias on my part but I always associate the best Irish 2,000 Guineas with good weather. Be it Henrythenavigator comprehensively upholding Newmarket form with New Approach in 2008 or Canford Cliffs quickening down the outside in 2010, the fast ground renewals always seem superior to those run on soft, typically won by forgettables like Araafa and Roderic O'Connor.
The weather sites predict one of the latter renewals this year with about 16 millimetres forecast for the Curragh between now and Saturday afternoon on ground that is already yielding.
Good horses can get beaten on this sort of ground - George Washington was in 2006 - but connections of the favourite Kingman seem unworried by it. He was due to run on soft ground on Arc day last autumn while his trainer voiced concerns about very fast ground before Newmarket.
A bigger worry about him might be is he really that good. The Invincible Spirit colt was beaten on merit by a horse that swerved across the track last time and it could also be construed as a negative that he is even going for this race. The St James's Palace seemed the only show in town for him prior to the last day and this looks something of an afterthought. All in all, he's opposable at odds-on.
War Command certainly has his chance given his trainer's fine record in the race and a power-boost from his Newmarket ninth can be expected. None of Mastercraftsman, Roderic O'Connor or Power shone at Newmarket before winning this but soft ground would be a concern for War Command as he wants it quick. At odds of around 8.0 he's a fair price though and I couldn't put anyone off him.
The selection however is Mustajeeb who seems most effective with some cut. He blew away a top older horse Brendan Brackan last time, despite that one having his ideal conditions, and backing Dermot Weld three-year-olds in Irish group and listed races has been the path to riches this season. From 14 such runners on the turf, 10 have won and while they are lower level contests they are also the key trials and with such a return it is probably worth taking a chance in a Group 1.
Much has been made of Weld being in flying form but it's much more a case of his three-year-olds being an outstanding crop and Mustajeeb is one of the better ones judging on last time out with conditions in his favour here.
This year's three-year-old mile fillies give the impression of a weak crop and they could well spend the season beating each other; the betting for the Irish 1,000 Guineas, currently 5.0 the field, suggests as much.
My Titania is the likely favourite but she's plenty short enough at current odds. Her connections and pedigree - essentially the Sea The Stars team - mean she's shorter than she should be and while her form with Tarfasha stands out like a flashing light after the Weld filly winning the Blue Wind last week, I suspect she wasn't at her best when dispatched by My Titania last September.
Couple this with the fact that she met a setback that caused her to miss Newmarket and all the John Oxx horses are improving for the run, she is easy to leave alone.
Rizeena is close up in the market too and might be a better filly away from Newmarket - her figures elsewhere reads, 11131 - but the Moyglare form is nothing special and she disappointed on her return.
The main Ballydoyle hope Palace can be rated better than the result last time as she was in season and had to be rushed up after a tardy start but that form is still ordinary in Group 1 context and one gets the impression that the Aidan O'Brien three-year-olds fillies, for all their promise in 2013, aren't really up to this level, the likes of Dazzling, Bracelet and Terrific all having been found out.
If there is a solid form line in this race it could prove be the Miss France/Lightning Thunder angle and the latter should be a lot shorter than her current price. Sectionals suggest she was the best filly on the day in the Newmarket Guineas and she also ran Miss France very close as a two-year-old. The only real concern with her is slow ground but she won on good-soft as a juvenile and her Rockfel defeat on similar going came when she was in season and scoped dirty afterwards.
The Tattersalls' Gold Cup has been an asterisked Group 1 for a few years now, basically a schooling race for the best Ballydoyle older middle-distance horse, and its status as a top-level contest is rightly under threat.
Plenty of overrated O'Brien horses have turned up here, notably So You Think and Camelot, but his runner this year Magician is a different beast entirely and is underrated if anything.
His form beating The Fugue in the Breeders' Cup off a long break is rock solid and his Irish 2,000 Guineas win at this meeting last year is strong too as he had a pair of subsequent Group 1 winners and the Jersey Stakes winner in behind. The course seems to suit him well and while his last run won't have pleased everyone he was only ridden to beat one horse and will come on for it.
Magician thus comes into this race a hard fit proven Group 1 horse against rivals that aren't of his calibre. The supplemented Noble Mission will find this much tougher than the races he's been contesting against Telescope lately and the biggest danger could come from Mukhadram who ran well in a series of similar races last year. However, Magician looks a pretty good bet as odds-on shots go.
Recommended Bets
Back Mustajeeb in the Irish 2,000 Guineas
Back Lightening Thunder in the Irish 1,000 GuineasBack Magician in the Tattersalls' Gold Cup
