In Part Two of this week's Timeform Recap we take a look at the Guineas both for the boys and for the girls.
The Caulfield Guineas of 2015 was a low-rating renewal. Press Statement ran to 120p winning the race, the lowest rating returned to a Guineas winner since Wonderful World ran to the same mark in 2006.
In Part One we mentioned the role of opportunity versus ability and it's relevant again here.
Press Statement was ridden to win the race, not to run a big rating. He was taken to the front to overcome an awkward barrier and those enterprising tactics achieved the desired result.
We wouldn't expect a rating of 120p to do Press Statement justice in the long term (hence the 'p') and under a different scenario he's likely to prove up to running to a higher level than that, whereas that may not be the case for many of the beaten brigade, headed up by the now 115? rated Lizard Island.
Press Statement was the second consecutive Stan Fox Stakes winner to take out the Caulfield Guineas, following on from Shooting To Win a year earlier.
Both ran to 119+ in winning the Stan Fox but Shooting To Win was afforded the better opportunity to build on that rating in the Caulfield Guineas. Shooting To Win got a nice trail off a strong tempo last year and ran to 125 to win the Guineas, 5lbs higher than Press Statement, but it's no good thing that Press Statement won't scale similar heights before the season is out.
For now 120p is high enough to have Press Statement on the podium in the race for Champion Three-Year-Old honours, sitting 7lbs shy of the 127p-rated Exosphere who may have that title sewn up just a few months in.
Third spot on that podium now belongs to a filly after Stay With Me replicated the feats of her famous mother in winning the Thousand Guineas.
Stay With Me is now rated 117 and the best filly in the land. There's no 'p' on that figure, though, as the Thousand Guineas provided her with ample opportunity to show us how good she is - and she didn't disappoint.
The Thousand Guineas was strongly run and the overall time rock solid, the timefigure right in line with the form at 117.
That makes her a slightly above average winner of the race, particularly if we remove the outlier that was the 2011 Thousand Guineas performance from Atlantic Jewel, who ran to 125 by beating up on Mosheen, who in an ordinary year would have been an above-average winner herself.
Stay With Me's dam Miss Finland was also an above-average winner of the race in 2006, running to 120.
As the third best three-year-old in the land, Stay With Me is now the standard bearer in what looks a rather warm group of three-year-old fillies.
Speak Fondly only ran to 110 winning the Flight, the mile seemingly stretching her, but her form prior to that had her rated 114, good enough to have her edging second ahead of the flying filly Petits Filous rated 113p.
Petits Filous came unstuck in the Moir but her 'p' remains attached as there should be more to come (the clock suggests there is) given that all-important opportunity in the latter half of the season.
