With the start of the Ebor Festival less than a week away, Alex Cairns looks at the race which gives the meeting its name.
Normally, you might expect an Ebor preview to begin with recognition of the race’s fiercely competitive nature, but this year an ante-post favourite as short as 3/1 in places seems to render such careful qualification redundant.
Pallasator has been highly regarded by many for some time and ever since he landed an Ascot handicap at the end of July it seems both backers and bookies feel the actual running of York’s Saturday feature to be close to a formality.
Here’s why:
1. He’s trained by Sir Mark Prescott
If asked to name a trainer likely to win a valuable staying handicap with an unexposed horse, Prescott would be the first name on most people’s lips.
2. He’s the proverbial 'Group horse in a handicap’
Though five, Pallasator has only had eight starts and shown steady improvement with each outing. With his Timeform rating already a lofty 123, the ‘Group horse in a handicap’ tagline may yet prove as accurate as it is clichéd.
3. He’s a thorough stayer
Being by Motivator out of a Lancashire Oaks winner, it was unlikely Pallasator was going to make a sprinter and a mile and a half or further does indeed appear to be his preference. With few Ebors lacking in pace, his proven stamina is a big plus.
So all signs point to Pallasator and those who follow them could well find Prescott has plotted a perfect campaign for the now Qatari-owned favourite. Value, or lack of it at 7/2 in a 20-runner handicap in which won't be the only improver, is the only drawback.
In such cases, it can pay to take a less trodden path as an ante-post backer, in the hope that a more laborious route might yield greater reward and help avoid any approaching cliff.
One cliff that could prove an aid in our quest is Tiger Cliff. Now sadly deceased, this likeable type was sent out by Lady Cecil to record a popular Ebor success last year and it looks like the yard may have a comparable candidate this time around in the shape of Mighty Yar. This lightly raced four-year-old has a very similar profile to last year’s winner and his form this term suggests the 14 furlongs and strong pace of an Ebor could well bring out his best.
Having only made the track once at two and three (winning on each occasion), connections will be delighted to see their patience paying off with Mighty Yar this season. After being well beaten in a listed race at Nottingham on his 2014 return, he won what has proved a high-class handicap at Newmarket. The likes of Amralah and Van Percy were in behind and Mighty Yar registered another solid piece of form when second to Great Voltigeur fancy King’s Fete in a slowly-run race at York last time out.
The way he has been brought along suggests that connections have been slow-playing Mighty Yar for a race like the Ebor. The problem is it could prove to be too slow: at the time of writing Mighty Yar will need 13 to come out if he is to even get a run. This is not beyond the bounds of possibility however and, if he were to sneak in at the bottom of the handicap, a 12/1 ante-post voucher would begin to look a shrewd investment.
From an ante-post perspective, it seems wise to make at least one selection that is guaranteed a place in the race and Waila looks a good each-way prospect at 25/1.
Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, who has three Ebors to his name and sent out Rosika to take second in the race for Waila’s owner Evelyn de Rothschild in 2010, this four-year-old filly was considered good enough to take her chance at Group 1 level last term and has put in some excellent performances in defeat this season.
Waila made her handicap debut only recently, contesting a listed event over the Ebor C&D in mid-July. There she ran creditably to finish second having been keen off a steady early pace. Taking in the Lillie Langtry when last seen, Waila travelled much more kindly in a race run at a good tempo and came with what looked a winning run at the two-furlong pole. In the end she couldn’t get past tenacious Group 1 performer Missunited, but this was nonetheless a fine trial for the Ebor and, with Ryan Moore likely to be booked, she will surely go off much shorter than her current odds.
Marco Botti’s De Rigueur has a host of form that highlights him as an Ebor candidate. Indeed, he beat Pallasator when scoring in the Old Newton Cup last time out and his idling in front means he was not hit hard by the handicapper. He thus rests on a BHA rating of 101, guaranteeing him a run.
Previous to this De Rigeur had beaten a good field of handicappers, including Mighty Yar, at Newmarket and even if the lack of pace in the race makes it somewhat questionable form, his Old Newton Cup effort proved it was no fluke and this strong stayer could well play a part at York.
Classy Irish entries Eye of The Storm and Pale Mimosa also merit a mention as they bring strong Group form from staying races in Ireland. This will be a first handicap start for both, but they will have hefty weights to carry by virtue of their strong showing at a higher level.
In recent weeks it has seemed this year’s Ebor is approaching a foregone conclusion, with Pallasator being backed as though the win were a matter of course. However, despite his attractive profile, defeat remains a distinct possibility for the favourite and we are hoping that Mighty Yar or Waila might be the ones to inflict it.
Recommendations:
1pt e/w Mighty Yar (@ 12/1) & Waila (@ 25/1) in the Ebor
