With two weeks to go before the running of the G1 Golden Slipper Stakes, the richest juvenile race in the world, form lines surrounding the top fancies looked even stronger after the running of major lead up races at Rosehill last Saturday.
Photo by Racing and Sports
Unbeaten youngsters Pierro and Samaready dominated the 2012 renewals of the G2 Todman Stakes and G2 Reisling Stakes respectively, both running to a Timeform rating that would normally win a Golden Slipper.
The Gai Waterhouse-trained Pierro was second up in the Todman Stakes after scoring in the G2 Silver Slipper Stakes three weeks back but on this occasion had to work much harder under strong riding from Nash Rawiller to narrowly stave off a sustained challenge from Black Opal Stakes winner Epaulette who had edged a neck clear with 200m to travel.
It was a determined victory and earned both Pierro and Epaulette a Timeform rating of 122, right on the five year winning Timeform average rating for the race.
Pierro improved his Silver Slipper winning rating from 118 to 122 however Epaulette dispelled doubts over the Black Opal form by sharply improving his rating from that race by 11 pounds.
The Todman Stakes has been a good race for the Golden Slipper providing a raft of recent winners and placegetters, eg Sepoy (Won - 2011), Decision Time (2nd – 2010), Phelan Ready (Won - 2009), Meurice (3rd-2007), Zizou (2nd – 2007), Charge Forward (2nd – 2004) to name a few however the last horse to complete the double was Tierce in 1991 – a sober thought for connections of Pierro.
Samaready came off a high rating effort in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes to take the Reisling Stakes in much easier fashion than Pierro, defeating Hussousa and Meidung, however as expected rated to 121 two pounds under her peak Blue Diamond effort.
This is not surprising for a couple of reasons. First it is never easy for any juvenile to continue a campaign to take the Blue Diamond Stakes and Golden Slipper double. Sepoy was an exceptional juvenile last year but he was the first since Courtza in 1989 to take the double and just the fourth horse in history to achieve the feat.
Second to peak a juvenile for two “grand finals” in the space of approximately six weeks is a big ask which is why Samaready ran to a lower rating than her Blue Diamond win. In fact the record of Blue Diamond winners at their next start is atrocious. Prior to Samaready, only star filly Alinghi who also won the Reisling at her subsequent run had been able to do so in the last 10 years.
Trainer Mick Price is very conscious of the fact that after the Blue Diamond he faced such a task and wisely “backed off” the filly for a few weeks, literally starting a campaign aimed at the Slipper without actually sending the filly to the spelling paddocks.
I have previously discussed the magnitude of Samaready's win in the Blue Diamond Stakes – it was an awesome performance rating just a pound under Sepoy's outstanding win last year and the second highest rating Blue Diamond win in the last 25 years.
That said history tells us Samaready still faces quite a task to win the Slipper. However she did all that was expected of her on Saturday, navigating the clockwise way of going for the first time around the tricky Rosehill 1200m course and running to a 121 Timeform rating, the second highest rated winner of the race in the last 20 years behind Alinghi and More Joyous who both rated 122.
There is an indirect form line through Hussousa that also confirms the value of Saturday's form. In the Silver Slipper Pierro defeated Hussousa by a length conceding 2kgs to the filly. Based on that meeting, at level weights Pierro would defeat Hussousa by around 1.7 lengths.
On Saturday Samaready defeated Hussousa by 2 lengths at level weights, so a quick comparison using Hussousa as “line horse” gives Samaready a slight advantage over Pierro at level weights.
But in the Golden Slipper Samaready will receive an additional 2 kgs fillies allowance which when added to the analysis above converts to around a length advantage “at the weights” for the Golden Slipper Stakes.
Of course this analysis ignores any improvement or declining form cycles and the all important barrier draw, but none-the-less serves to reinforce the current difference as predicted by their respective current Timeform ratings.
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