Derby Day in Melbourne with a cracking nine race card featuring three Group Ones.
Attention turns to Flemington for the first of four huge days with Derby Day kicking off proceedings.
Keen on the best bet of the card which comes up in Race 5, the Group 2 Wakeful Stakes (2000m) for three-year-old fillies.
The Melbourne leadups have been poor, and this is crying out for some new blood. Enter, Powers Of Opal.
She's been a staying filly of promise for a while, running to 102 on the Racing & Sports scale two starts back in the Flight Stakes when leading and fading before going to Hawkesbury for an easy maiden kill, and doing so.
She ran a fantastic time figure there, easily the fastest race on the card, and did it with plenty of late sectional strength behind her.
Her ratings are already at the same level as the ones coming through Group races, and she profiles beautifully out to 2000m now. I've marked her an even money favourite, and the price available early in the week shouldn't last long.
For the value play, I'm going to the feature race – the Victoria Derby where two horses at huge odds can run well.
The first of those is Scary who gives every indication he'll relish a strongly run 2500m. He was backed into $4 in the Super Impose here two starts back and ran the fastest late splits of the race behind Keeneland.
The Caulfield Classic was a completely farcical and gave no indication to a horse's ability at all, so I'm happy to completely wipe that run.
He's now pushing 50-1 here, they can be more positive from a nice draw and I think he's a genuine chance.
The other that can run well is Oxford Blue. The market backed him off the map in the Geelong Classic and while he was beaten fair and square, I don't think the race shape suited after slowing down mid-race and allowing the chasers to catch up.
A faster tempo and sterner test here, don't be surprised if he elevates significantly.
The Melbourne Mail
Bet of the day: Race 5 #5 Powers Of Opal at $2.80
Each-way play: Race 7 #13 Scary at $41/9.50
