The carnival rolls out of Melbourne and into the countryside with Ballarat Cup Day the feature meeting in Victoria this weekend.
The favourite in the feature is Mr Garcia and we think that is a solid assessment given the son of Paco Boy can claim to be the horse in the field with the most ahead of him.
It's not a bad Ballarat Cup but it's a field largely made up of well-exposed runners who are looking to hit previously reached levels as opposed to searching for new peaks with the exception of Mr Garcia who made a winning start in Australia and should have plenty more to offer.
At Flemington Mr Garcia had to overcome a steady tempo, doing well to get on top in the end, and the way he finished gave the impression that he would stay further. That he has been tried beyond 2000m just once - over 2062m at York in another steadily run affair - leaves him untapped over longer trips and that his York run was as good as any form he has produced to this point has to be seen as another positive.
We're happy to gamble on his upside at anything above the 2-1 mark.
For an each way play we roll back to race five where Prepare To Win makes plenty of appeal at the early quotes.
She had no luck at all at the Valley last time in a key form race for this contest. She was behind horses with no momentum in a race where the leaders went out too hard and weakened late - right into Prepare To Win's face.
Prior to that she had chalked up a couple of wins on the bounce, the most recent of which was solid for the class, and with nothing particularly frightening among Saturday's rivals (Gaudi might be the pick of the dangers having zipped home well enough at Cranbourne last time) she's well worth having something on at prices around $7.50 in early betting.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 8 #7 Mr Garcia @ $3.00
Each Way Play: Race 5 #9 Prepare To Win @ $7.50
