Race four at Sandown on Saturday is an interesting race with the early favourite Demonstrate set for better things this campaign.
Demonstrate improved with racing through a winter/spring campaign that culminated with a trio of stakes-placed runs and a sixth in the Sandown Guineas after setting up a strong rating for the race from the front.
His form at the back of the campaign earned him a Timeform rating of 110 and those efforts around horses like Palentino and Holler has certainly worked out well this autumn.
Demonstrate looks like further advertising those formlines this Saturday as he arrives at Sandown second up off a very promising return at the Valley behind a promising horse in Stellar Collision.
It's not just Stellar Collision that paints Demonstrate's return run in a positive light, but also how that race stacked up against the Group 1 William Reid on the same card.
The Stellar Collision/Demonstrate race was run in 69.93 seconds, just 0.08 seconds slower than the William Reid which, just 90 minutes later, clocked in at 69.85 seconds.
That could be seen as a positive lead in itself but overall time needs context and sectional times can give us that context.
Splitting the races in half we see the William Reid run as 35.18 out and 34.67 home. 90 minutes earlier the Three-Year-Old Plate won by Stellar Collision was out in 35.53 and home in 34.40 - they were finishing faster than the higher-rated horses later on the card and perhaps a softer first 600m cost them running better overall time.
Within that race Demonstrate was home in 33.99 seconds, faster than the famously fast-finishing The Quarterback who was the best closer in the William Reid at 34.03.
The three-year-olds that finished second and third in the William Reid, Holler and Japonisme, ran to Timeform ratings of 119 on the night. If that is a pointer to the sort of form that Demonstrate might be able to achieve, and times on the night suggest he might be up to the task, then he should be dealing with his Sandown rivals on Saturday.
They are a competitive lot, and there are some horses heading in the right direction against Demonstrate, but with a rating of 110 and signs pointing towards him moving that mark upwards this preparation he makes a lot of appeal. Even money appeal in our minds and the early price - Click here for TopBetta's Sandown markets should be snapped up given that.
For an each-way bet we will push on to race seven where a full field goes over the 1000m course with Sheidel the early favourite.
Sheidel has a good winning culture and there was nothing wrong with her first run in Melbourne last time but she looks too short against another mare who made a good start to racing in Melbourne, Miss Seton Sands.
Miss Seton Sands hit the line hard to win a mares handicap first up and she showed terrific closing speed to win there. Further to that she has returned higher ratings back in New Zealand and there is plenty of scope for her to improve on that win. Prices around $6.50 look to undersell her chances.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 4 #4 Demonstrate @ $2.50
Each Way Play: Race 7 #7 Miss Seton Sands @ $6.50
