It’s shaping as a tricky day up at Doomben, and a lot of it hinges on how the track is going to play.
At the moment it looks to have dried out pretty well, but there’s still a bit of rain around tomorrow in the south of the state and a ludicrous amount up north.
So bear all that in mind when reaching into your pockets.
The highlight is clearly the Jim Beam Handicap, an open sprint over 1110m which heralds the return of Queensland springtime sensation Love Rocks.
He won three straight at the back end of last campaign, including the Listed Lough Neagh Stakes (1350m), and may well take it to a new level this campaign.
Clearly he’s the one to beat, but $2.40 is very skinny in a pretty open field. Love Rocks looks a tad vulnerable first-up over this sharp trip, given he usually takes at least a run to find his best.
Excellantes tops the weights off a freshen up, seven weeks after narrowly missing out in the Falvelon Quality behind Tiger Tees, who runs in the TJ Smith down at Sydney this weekend after winning the Galaxy last start.
The seven weeks between runs is a slight concern for Excellantes but he’s tough and can’t be dismissed.
Dig a bit deeper and there’s an even juicier proposition at $17.
The super-honest Floral Insight comes up here looking to continue what’s been a typically impressive campaign so far and he won’t know himself under 55kg.
He ran second in an open Muswellbrook sprint last start on a wet track carrying 60kg.
That followed a hard-working fourth at Armidale under 63kg, which came two starts after winning at Grafton lugging 63.5kg.
In between all of that was a fourth placing at Warwick Farm behind the talented Territory.
On weight-adjusted Timeform ratings, Floral Insight is good enough to win this so don’t be afraid to have a crack at him each way.
Kurtley lines up in the next race on the card, the Powerade Class 6 Handicap over 1630m, and he looks a strong chance at his $4 quote.
He tends to do his best work third-up, and this is clearly his best trip having won three times and placed three times in six starts over the journey.
The firmer the track the better, and the apprentice takes his weight down to 56kg.
He’ll have a fight on his hands against the likes of Revitalise, Heart Of Many and Empress Me, but out this trip he looks the one to beat.
Earlier in the day, Tambo’s Jewel has come up a bit short in the Mount Franklin Sparkling Benchmark 85 Handicap (1350m) where’s she’s currently $3.60 in the market.
These mares’ races are tough at the best of times, and only seven days back she was comfortably held in similar over 1500m at Eagle Farm.
She’s better off back to this trip but won’t be finding things any easier carrying an extra half kilogram.
Elusive Storm will take plenty of beating off a resuming win here 31 days ago while Gallinari pulled away late for a soft win here two weeks back and can’t be ignored on current form.
Bradbury Chocolate meanwhile has come back in good order and is curiously up to this trip for the first time.
I’ll be avoiding the favourite at the $3.60.
BANKER: Race 6 No 1 Kurtley @ $4
BET OF THE DAY: Race 5 No 3 Floral Insight @ $17
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3 No 4 Tambo’s Jewel @ $3.60
