Well last weekend proved another slightly tricky day north of the Tweed, so hopefully you managed to get better than $4 about Mishani Warrior.
Pasquinel proved very disappointing in a strange race and I seem to have misjudged Little Bit Ditsy who was super in the Class 6 Handicap despite coming out near the rear.
There’s excellent racing across the country this Saturday, and a couple at Eagle Farm certainly worth keeping an eye on.
We’ll kick off with the Falvelon Handicap where star trainer Robert Heathcote has a three-pronged attack trying to fend off the Sydney raider Tiger Tees.
Leading the charge, I think, is last-start winner Excellantes who has incredibly come up a $10 chance.
Tiger Tees is favourite and deservedly so given he’s a dual Group 3 winner, so he’s taking up plenty of market share at the moment.
With 59.5kg on his back though, he’d want to be firing first-up.
Heathcote’s mare Fire Up Fifi has also attracted interest as she resumes three months after running a narrow third in the Group 1 Railway Stakes in Perth.
She came of age last campaign with a Group 2 win in Melbourne over the spring, but she’s always found the 1200m a bit sharp in the past and that’ll likely be the case again here.
Excellantes has been readied for this with three runs this campaign, and was far too good over this trip at Doomben last start in open grade.
He sheds 2kg off that performance and looks capable of running down Tiger Tees carrying 2.5kg less.
At $10, he looks an excellent each-way proposition.
Earlier in the day, I’m very keen on Valerie D’Amour to continue her winning ways in the Class 6 Handicap over 2200m.
She was very impressive here over the trip two weeks back finishing almost three lengths clear of Senta Desert, one of her main rivals today, and meets him a further half kilogram better off here.
To be fair to Gerald Ryan’s Senta Desert, he was wide throughout in that run and was entitled to get a bit closer, but I still doubt he’d have been able to reel in Valerie D’Amour.
She’s taken a bit of time this campaign, but she’s finally started to hit her straps and a repeat performance would make her very hard to beat in this.
The $3.60 looks a pretty juicy price about her at this stage.
Plumage is the other one likely to pose a threat – she won a race at this C&D two runs back, albeit in easier grade, and was disgraced in a tough race against open opposition at Doomben three weeks back.
She’s poorly weighted compared to the top pick though and can be inconsistent.
Valerie D’Amour is drawn superbly in gate two and carries just 51kg with Allen’s claim factored in. Get on board to build a bank nice and early.
That race follows the Dan Rodrigues 1800m Handicap, where the market looks far too skewed towards Trakstar.
He’s currently rated a $1.65 favourite and that’s far too short with the likes of Racing Heart and War Ends also lining up.
I’ll preface this by saying I think Trakstar can definitely win this race. He’s improved with each run this time in and looked to have a bit in hand when winning over 1630m at Doomben last time.
But I couldn’t possibly dive in at that price.
He’s winless in six runs at Eagle Farm for starters and carries the same weight as last time despite the jump in grade.
Racing Heart comes off a game second in a strong race over this trip on Sunshine Coast Cup day and rates a strong winning hope.
War Ends meanwhile gets up to a more favourable trip today and should be super fit for this on the quick back up. His best is certainly up to winning this, although he’s another one who has struggled here in the past.
I’ll be steering clear of the $1.65 about Trakstar.
BANKER: Race 3 No 10 Valerie D’Amour @ $3.60
PLAY OF THE DAY: Race 7 No 5 Excellantes @ $10
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2 No 4 Trakstar @ $1.65
